Original Article Title: "IOSG | Binance's Listing Pathway Research: Alpha, IDO, Futures, Spot Fully Analyzed"

Original Article Author: Xinyang, IOSG Ventures

TL;DR:

This research analyzes the token performance through Binance's four main Listing channels—Alpha, IDO, Futures, and Spot—and tracks their subsequent listings on Bitget, Bybit, Coinbase, Upbit, focusing on the return performance, listing pace, track preferences, and FDV range.

Performance Review

· The median FDV for most channels at 14 days is negative, reflecting that most projects list at a valuation peak;

· Binance Alpha shows the most explosive performance (mean of 220%) but with high volatility;

· Binance IDO has a well-balanced short-term gain and a high conversion rate (to Futures and Spot);

· Binance Spot shows the weakest short-term performance, possibly due to early investors exiting;

· Bitget and Coinbase have shown strong performance in the secondary market, while Bybit and Upbit are relatively average.

Platform Selection Based on FDV Range

· Binance Spot favors high market cap projects (>$500M);

· Alpha mainly supports early-stage projects < $200M, suitable for experimentation;

· IDO focuses on mid-sized projects in the $70M–$200M range;

· Bitget / Bybit have flexible ranges but lean towards projects with growth potential or high market cap;

· Coinbase / Upbit prefer highly compliant and high valuation projects.

Expected Listing Timeframe

· Alpha → Spot: Average of around 60 days;

· IDO → Spot: Average of around 17 days;

· Futures → Spot: Average of only 14 days;

· Futures may be the fastest pathway.

Track Preference

· Alpha: Meme, AI preference;

· IDO: Infra, AI preference;

· Spot: Covers Infra, Meme, AI;

· Futures: Broader, focusing on Infra, AI, Meme;

· Projects can choose the appropriate listing method based on their narrative direction.

Listing Path Advanced

· Alpha → Futures: Conversion rate 37.8%

· Alpha → Spot: Conversion rate 12.2%

· IDO → Futures: Conversion rate 66.7%

· IDO → Spot: Conversion rate 23.8%

· Achieving around a 40% FDV increase is a common feature of entering the next-stage platform.

Alternative Platform Performance

· Bitget is the most receptive among other CEXs, especially friendly to Alpha/IDO projects;

· Bybit also shows a high willingness to accept IDO projects;

· Coinbase / Upbit list very few projects, undergo strict review, and have longer cycles.

This study focuses on the lifecycle performance of projects' tokens in Binance's listing channels (Alpha, commonly referred to by the community as IDO's Exclusive TGE, Futures, and Spot), tracking the subsequent listing paths of these projects on centralized exchange platforms (CEXs) such as Bitget, Bybit, Upbit, and Coinbase. The analysis covers token return performance, listing timing, project track preferences, and valuation distribution (FDV dynamics), aiming to provide strategic listing path recommendations for projects and establish a data-driven price discovery and trading strategy evaluation framework for investors.

Term Explanation: What Does Binance's Spot / Futures / IDO / Alpha Listing Refer To?

· Binance Spot (Spot) is Binance's most basic trading platform, where users can buy or sell tokens at the current market price, and once the transaction is completed, the asset delivery is finalized, allowing for free holding, transferring, or selling of assets.

· Binance Futures (Perpetual Contracts) provides crypto derivative trading services, allowing users to long or short positions and use leverage to amplify gains or losses.

· Binance Launchpad is a public token sale platform for retail users, where users can participate in the token sale of new projects on the Binance Chain by staking BNB or completing Binance team-set Alpha Quest tasks. This usually happens before the token is officially listed on other platforms.

· Binance Alpha is Binance's project discovery platform, integrating Pancakeswap and other on-chain DEXs on the BNB Chain, supporting early-stage projects with growth potential, emphasizing experimentation and token diversity.

Scope of Research

· Exchange Platform Selection: The projects tracked in this research initially launched on the Binance ecosystem. Their subsequent performance on platforms such as Bitget, Bybit, Coinbase, and Upbit is also considered, as these platforms are the most common CEXs after Binance.

· Time Constraint: Only events after February 2025 are included in this analysis. This time point is used to filter out outdated market dynamics and align with current listing trends.

Understanding the listing journey is crucial for both projects and investors:

· For projects, the performance on different platforms directly impacts resource allocation and listing schedules;

· For investors, the token's performance on different platforms is a key factor in position management and deciding whether to buy the token at a higher price.

Section 1: Price Discovery

Return on Investment

Indicator Definition: In this section, we measure the price fluctuation of the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of a token in the first 14 days after listing to evaluate the short-term price discovery capability of different platforms. We take the FDV corresponding to the closing price on the listing day as the benchmark and compare it with the highest FDV within the first 14 days.

Overall, the median 14-day FDV for all platforms is negative, indicating that in the current cycle, most projects list at a valuation peak.

· Binance Alpha: The mean is approximately +77%, with a median of -7.6%. Most projects have limited returns, but a few projects experience extreme growth, demonstrating the high-volatility nature of Alpha. Despite performance variance, the downside risk is limited, providing exposure for projects and offering investors an asymmetric return structure.

· Binance IDO and Futures: The medians are -16.3% and -21.7%, while the means are +28% and -20%, respectively. This indicates that most projects have average performance, but a few projects significantly boost the overall mean. Futures show weaker performance, mainly because most projects are added after a period from their initial listing, when the volatility has subsided.

· Binance Spot: The median is -29.7%, with a mean of -20%. As the most prestigious platform, listing on Spot may ironically become an exit point for early investors, putting downward pressure on prices.

· Bitget and Coinbase: Both show steady performance, with Bitget having a median of -19.8% and a mean of around 21%; Coinbase has a median of -7.7% and a mean of around 18%. Both platforms demonstrate a strong ability to pick up momentum after listing on Binance.

· Bybit and Upbit: They have a moderate performance, with Bybit having a median of -22.1% and a mean of 8.9%; Upbit has a median of -24.6% and a mean of -5%. Projects listed on Upbit tend to be added later, after the hype has waned, resulting in weaker performance.

Price Surge Magnitude

Indicator Definition: This section measures the ratio of the token's highest Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) within 14 days of listing to the listing FDV, aiming to evaluate the short-term upward potential provided by each platform.

This indicator helps investors assess the early price surge potential of a token at listing and also provides a reference for project teams to understand market demand, selling pressure, and each platform's ability in price discovery.

· Binance Alpha: The average price surge magnitude reaches 220%, with a median of 19.7%. Some projects experience only minor fluctuations, while many projects see significant price surges after listing, showcasing Alpha's strong short-term speculative nature and price discovery capability, making it the channel with the highest upward potential among all platforms.

· Binance Launchpad: Average price surge of about 75%, with a median of 11.5%. Most projects experience good hype after listing.

· Binance Futures: Average price surge of 27%, with a median of only 4.1%. It attracts some trading volume, contributes to price action, and serves as a good supplementary exposure platform.

· Binance Spot: Underperformed, with an average price surge of only 15% and a median of 0.9%. Due to market expectations being met, projects face strong selling pressure upon listing.

· Coinbase: Average price surge of 60%, with a median of 21.1%. Strongest catalyst among all CEXs, mainly benefiting from the U.S. user base, but with a low listing frequency.

· Bybit / Bitget: Average price surge of 70–80%, with median around 20%. Strong speculative atmosphere, evident short-term volatility, making it a very good listing choice.

· Upbit: Average price surge of 35%, with a median of 0%. Weak trading depth and relatively limited user enthusiasm.

II. FDV Distribution at Listing

This section starts from the FDV distribution of projects listed on various platforms, providing strategic advice for projects. Projects at different valuation stages are suitable for different listing channels. Understanding the platform's FDV acceptance range helps teams more accurately match listing pace with platform strategy.

· Binance Spot: Over 60% of projects have an FDV above $5 billion, showing a clear preference for large-cap projects. The platform has high requirements for project size and investment institution background, making it more suitable for mature projects with established valuations.

· Binance Alpha: Wide coverage range, with FDVs mostly concentrated below $200 million. Aligned with Alpha's "experimental" positioning, suitable for early- to mid-stage projects with potential.

· Binance Futures: Over half of the projects have an FDV exceeding $5 billion, but there is also distribution in the $70 million–$500 million range. Futures serves more as a follow-up channel for already listed projects, suitable for projects with relatively stable valuations.

· Binance IDO: FDV is mostly concentrated between 70 million and 200 million USD, indicating a preference for mid-cap projects. Suitable for public issuance after sufficient product, community, and strategy preparation.

· Bitget: Covers the full valuation range from below 30 million to above 500 million, with a concentration in the 70 million-200 million USD and 500 million USD and above ranges. Indicates high platform acceptance but a preference for mid to large-cap projects with existing hype or institutional endorsement.

· Bybit: Close to half of the projects have an FDV higher than 500 million USD, and the 70 million-200 million USD range is also well covered. Possesses the dual capability to capture short-term hype and drive mid-cap projects.

· Coinbase: Almost all projects have an FDV above 500 million USD, reflecting its compliance threshold and preference for high market cap projects. The platform is more suitable for mature, highly compliant projects.

· Upbit: All listed projects have an FDV above 200 million USD, with most exceeding the 500 million USD threshold. Indicates a high market cap requirement in the Korean market, more suited as a supplementary channel in later stages.

III. Platform Preference by Sector

Project teams need to understand the differences in platform preferences by sector. The following analysis focuses solely on the distribution of Binance's four major channels in terms of sector preferences.

Furthermore, the total number of projects listed on different channels also reflects the listing difficulty. Generally, the fewer projects a platform has listed, the stricter its screening criteria.

· Binance Spot: Approximately 50 listed projects

· Binance Futures: Approximately 90 listed projects

· Binance Alpha: Approximately 80 listed projects

· Binance IDO: Approximately 20 listed projects

Binance IDO:

· Prefers Infra (7 items) and AI (6 items).

· Sector distribution is concentrated, covering only 6 sectors.

· Clearly focused on the technology infrastructure and emerging application scenarios, prioritizing support for infrastructure and AI projects.

Binance Spot:

· Prefers Infra (18 items), Meme (8 items), and AI (8 items).

· Also covers DeFi, RWA, GameFi, Dapps, and other subcategories.

· Sector distribution is most balanced, but infrastructure projects still dominate.

Binance Futures:

· It is the platform with the most listed projects, covering 35 Infra and 21 AI projects.

· Meme (14) and DeFi (8) proportions are also significant.

· Broad track coverage, preferring active market and narrative-driven projects.

Binance Alpha:

· Mainly focused on Meme (25) and AI (20), highlighting speculative narratives and experimental themes.

· There are 10 Infra projects, along with RWA (5), DeFi (4), GameFi, and others.

· Alpha is an experimental ground for speculative and conceptual projects.

Summary:

Projects need to adjust their product positioning and market narratives based on each platform's sector preferences.

AI projects are a popular track supported by all four major channels.

Meme projects dominate in Alpha, with decent coverage in Spot and Futures as well.

Infra projects are the most inclusive core track besides Alpha.

IV. Listing Path Analysis

Many projects often ask a key question: Can Alpha or IDO serve as a gateway to entering Binance Spot? Let's let the data speak:

· Alpha → Futures: Conversion rate is 37.8% (31/82), making it a relatively effective pre-listing channel.

· Alpha → Spot: Conversion rate is only 12.2% (10/82), relatively low overall.

· IDO → Futures: Highest conversion rate, reaching 66.7% (14/21).

· IDO → Spot: The conversion rate was 23.8% (5/21), outperforming Alpha.

Alpha is more suitable as an early-stage testing channel, with over 30% of projects successfully entering Futures. However, to advance to Spot, a strong fundamental and market performance is still required. In contrast, IDO projects have a more solid foundation in brand awareness and community support, with higher potential for advancement. Project teams should view Alpha and IDO as the starting point to enter the Binance ecosystem rather than the endpoint.

Project Performance Threshold

For those projects that successfully advanced from Alpha / IDO to Binance Spot, how did they perform in the early stages? Are there any observable patterns to learn from?

· Alpha → Spot: The median of the project's 14-day peak during the Alpha phase was only 5.2%, much lower than the 30–50% range of other paths. However, its mean was as high as 113.5%, the highest among all paths. This indicates significant divergence in project performance, with some projects showing strong explosive growth, but the majority having limited gains. The listing on Binance Spot is not solely dependent on market hype but rather emphasizes hard metrics such as product quality and user data.

· Alpha → Futures and the two IDO paths (→ Spot and → Futures) had relatively concentrated medians in their 14-day peak, around 30–45%, with means ranging between 51% and 105%, showing stable performance.

Overall, if a project can achieve approximately 40–50% FDV peak within two weeks after listing on the initial platform, it is more likely to receive further attention for Futures or Spot. This can serve as a reference standard for project teams to evaluate the potential of subsequent listings.

Waiting Period

Project teams also need to set reasonable expectations: how long does it usually take from Alpha or IDO to list on Binance Spot? Without a clear timeline, they may miss the market window or lose community interest.

· Alpha → Spot: The average waiting period is about 60 days, with some projects even exceeding 120 days. The distribution is quite broad, indicating that this path lacks predictability and is more suitable as a platform for exploration rather than a direct gateway to Spot.

· Alpha → Futures: Typically takes only 30 days on average, a significantly faster pace than Spot, with a stronger market response efficiency.

· IDO → Spot and IDO → Futures: The average waiting time for both paths is 17 days, with most projects able to complete within 1 month after listing. Thanks to their strong community mobilization and unified pacing, IDO projects have relatively controllable rhythms on their subsequent paths.

· Futures → Spot: The fastest among all paths, averaging only 14 days, with highly concentrated time distribution.

If the team's goal is to quickly achieve listing on Binance Spot, Futures is currently the most deterministic transit path observed.

5. Alternative Paths: Venturing into Other CEXs

Not all projects will consider Binance Spot as the sole target. An increasing number of projects are shifting towards mainstream platforms such as Bitget, Bybit, Coinbase, Upbit after Alpha or IDO. Some platforms react promptly with substantial liquidity, becoming practical alternative options.

Listing Numbers

After Alpha or IDO, how many projects have successfully entered other mainstream CEXs?

· Alpha → Bitget: The listing rate is 34.1% (28/82), leading by a wide margin. Bybit is at 17.1% (14/82), Coinbase at 6% (6/82), and Upbit has listed only 2 related projects. Bitget has the highest acceptance rate for Alpha projects, possibly due to its open attitude towards emerging projects and more flexible listing criteria. Bybit also shows some interest in Alpha projects.

· IDO → Bitget and Bybit: The listing rates are 61.9% (13/21) and 47.6% (10/21) respectively, with Upbit at 9% and no record for Coinbase. Compared to Alpha, IDO projects are more attractive on other platforms, likely due to their stronger brand building and community momentum. Bitget and Bybit also have a stronger capacity to host IDO projects, making them extended paths worth project teams' consideration.

Listed Waiting Time

After a project is listed on Binance through Alpha or IDO, how long does it usually take to be listed on mainstream CEX exchanges?

· Bitget: Alpha projects take an average of about 14 days, while IDO projects are faster, taking only 13 days. Many IDO projects go live on the same day as the TGE.

· Bybit: Alpha projects take about 13 days, and IDO projects go live on the TGE day as well.

· Coinbase: Only lists Alpha projects, with an average of about 29 days.

· Upbit: Only lists IDO projects, with an average of about 31 days.

Bitget and Bybit have a faster pace, suitable for rapid listings; Coinbase and Upbit have a slower pace, requiring alignment with local compliance and community rhythms.

Price Discovery Ability on Other CEXes

The following chart shows the average price increase of Alpha and IDO projects on each CEX 14 days after listing:

· Bitget: Alpha projects return 41.8%, while IDO projects return 29.2%, showing the best performance.

· Bybit: Alpha projects show -2.3% return, while IDO projects show 25.2% return, indicating a preference for IDOs.

· Coinbase and Upbit: With sample sizes of 6 and 4 projects, respectively, there is a significant statistical deviation, making them less representative.

Bitget and Bybit have shown stable performance in onboarding Binance projects and are crucial platforms to consider when planning a TGE route for projects.

Six. Conclusion

Overall, Binance Alpha and IDO serve as good internal platforms within Binance:

· Alpha is more like a testing ground with a low entry barrier, suitable for early project exposure;

· IDO has a stronger brand endorsement, and the conversion rates of Futures and Spot are also higher.

However, Spot conversion is still relatively scarce: the eventual promotion rate of Alpha projects is only about 12%, and IDO is also only 24%. Projects need to manage their pace:

· Alpha → Spot has an average waiting period of about 60 days,

· IDO → Spot takes 17 days,

· Futures → Spot is the fastest, only taking 14 days.

In addition, different platforms' preferences for project FDV also reveal key signals:

· Spot tends to favor large-cap projects with a valuation above $500M;

· Alpha mainly accepts early-stage projects with a valuation below $200M;

· IDO is mostly concentrated in the $70M–$200M range, suitable for medium-sized projects that are well-prepared.

Project teams should choose the appropriate channel based on their valuation stage to match liquidity expectations and market pace.

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