US CPI Data Encouraging, but Does It Hide Whale Sell-off? Bitcoin Surges High but Faces Pressure and Pulls Back

Original Title: "US CPI Optimism Struggles to Mask Whale Sell-offs? Bitcoin Rises Then Retraces Under Pressure"

Written by: Mary Liu, Cody Feng, Bitpush

The U.S. May inflation data revealed unexpectedly moderate signs, offering a positive signal for risk assets. Specifically, the unadjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year came in at 2.4%, slightly below the market consensus of 2.5%. Monthly CPI growth was just 0.1%, also lower than the expected 0.2%.

Core inflation data (excluding the volatile food and energy components) showed a similar softening trend: the year-over-year core CPI posted 2.8%, below the forecasted 2.9%, while the seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate was only 0.1%, significantly under the expected 0.3%.

Following the release of the report, the crypto market saw an initial surge followed by a pullback. Bitcoin briefly approached $110,000 intraday, Ethereum (ETH) rose 3% to $2,834, and XRP gained 1.8% to $2.32. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has remained around $3.4 trillion over the past 24 hours. According to CoinGlass data, as of the time of writing, the total 24-hour liquidation across the crypto market reached $300 million, with Ethereum accounting for about $100 million and Bitcoin around $37 million.

Whale Activity

Amid Bitcoin's rise and subsequent dip, on-chain data revealed an uptick in whale activity. Blockchain tracking platform Whale Alert observed on June 11 that a significant amount of Bitcoin was transferred to U.S. cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase. According to the tracking platform, over 3,165 BTC (valued at over $347 million) were sent to Coinbase through multiple transactions within just two hours by several anonymous whales.

The largest single transaction involved 738 BTC, and several other large-scale anonymous wallet transfers were recorded (e.g., 466 BTC, 464 BTC, 463 BTC, among others).

Notably, this included 510 BTC (worth approximately $56.1 million) transferred from the prominent crypto trading firm Cumberland to Coinbase Institutional. This typically indicates that whales might be preparing to sell their tokens. While the exact reasons for these transfers remain unconfirmed, they could also represent attempts at portfolio rebalancing by these whales. However, given the large volumes, repetitive patterns, and the involvement of entities like Cumberland, it is highly likely that these were actions taken by major participants, particularly institutional players.

Bitcoin, possibly influenced by this whale activity, dipped below the $110,000 level at the day’s opening. As of the time of writing, it has stabilized near $108,677.

Trends and Technical Analysis

Data reveals that the current funding rates in the Bitcoin futures market remain very stable or slightly low. In my opinion, this typically indicates that the ongoing rebound is driven by spot purchases from investors rather than speculative trading with high-leverage contracts. When high-leverage positions don’t dominate the market, the risk of large-scale sell-offs and dramatic declines is relatively low. Therefore, the likelihood of the price continuing to rise seems higher.

From the technical chart, Bitcoin opened with a gap up of approximately 1% yesterday, quoted near 110,375 points. After the opening, BTC fluctuated around this price for roughly 180 minutes before gradually moving downward, hitting an intraday low of 108,720 points at around 11:33 AM. At approximately 2:02 PM, BTC experienced a rapid surge, eventually closing near 110,455 points. A bullish doji candlestick with a long lower shadow was formed for the day, with a gain of approximately 1.02%.

By monitoring the daily trading channel model, Bitcoin is currently operating above the red-green protection channel, indicating that the medium-term trend remains strong. Sentiment indicators are also gradually recovering alongside the price increase, suggesting that market confidence is being restored.

From the 1-hour candlestick chart, the trading model monitoring shows that in the short term, the price is moving above the white long-short line, with sentiment indicators in a high-level area nearing a bearish divergence. This suggests an increased likelihood of market volatility in the short term, with potential retracement towards the 108,720-point level (the intraday low). A close watch is needed to see if this low point will be breached.

In my view, based on the 1-hour candlestick data analysis, multiple indicators are in the high-level area, signaling a heightened probability of intraday volatility. It is crucial to monitor whether the 108,720-point low will be breached. Based on daily candlestick data analysis, BTC is trading above the red-green protection channel, and medium-term long positions can be maintained.

Kind Reminder: All analyses and views expressed in this article represent the author’s personal interpretation of the market and do not constitute any form of trading advice. The market carries risks, and investors should proceed with caution. Readers are urged to make independent investment decisions based on their circumstances and bear corresponding risks.

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