Messari: Is PUMP's Fair Value $7 Billion, Making Buying the Public Sale a Guaranteed Win?

Messari

2025-06-20 20:11

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Messari's latest research report values PUMP at 7 billion.

Original Article Title: A Valuation of $PUMP

Original Article Author: Sunny Shi, Messari Crypto

Original Article Translator: Alex Liu, Foresight News

According to sources familiar with the matter cited by major media outlets, pump.fun is preparing to sell 25% of its PUMP token at a valuation of $4 billion to raise $1 billion. Is this price attractive? Messari's Sunny Shi has built a valuation model for PUMP, which shows its FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) could reach $7 billion. If the forecast is correct, buying PUMP tokens would be a bargain. But there is an important caveat. Here is their valuation process (Sunny Shi's perspective, "we" referring to Messari):

Regardless of how you view meme coins, this space continues to "print money." Despite a slight decline in trading volume on the pump.fun issuance platform compared to the beginning of the year, it still remains well above levels for most of 2024.

Pump.fun's trading volume surpasses most of 24, data: Messari

People may also be underestimating PumpSwap's success. This DEX launched approximately three months ago but has already significantly eroded Raydium's market share on Solana.

Comparison of PumpSwap and Raydium's market share, data: Messari

Our valuation approach uses a top-down model, assuming overall crypto market trading volume, Solana's share, issuance platform share, and PumpSwap's market share. These assumptions and models are only available to enterprise clients, but I will share the key takeaways.

In our base case scenario, we believe Meme coins will occupy a niche market within the broader crypto economy as they are better suited for speculative purposes than NFTs. Of course, the Solana ecosystem will undoubtedly diversify toward new asset pairs as it matures, but this point is also highly likely to hold true.

We believe that even though pump.fun's share within the Solana ecosystem has slightly decreased, PumpSwap is growing steadily, and the pump project is still expected to generate approximately $675 million in revenue over the next two years. Calculated with a 10x valuation multiple, the corresponding FDV is around $7 billion.

However, a key assumption is this: if the project chooses an opaque token/equity structure, allocates most of the revenue to insiders rather than token holders, we believe the current market has become quite cautious and will not overlook this poor value accrual method. In our full report, we provide a valuation table to assess PUMP's potential value based on the percentage of income token holders can receive.

Regardless of how the market ultimately judges, this is an excellent opportunity to participate in one of the most profitable crypto applications in history. It now depends on whether the project team provides token holders with sufficient buy-in to make it a worthwhile investment.

Editor's Note: In Aevo's pre-market perpetual trading market, PUMP is currently priced at $6, corresponding to a $60 billion FDV (fully diluted market cap).