Messari: Is PUMP's Fair Value $7 Billion, and Did Public Sale Buyers Get in on the Ground Floor?

Messari

2025-06-20 20:11

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Messari's latest research report values PUMP at 7 billion.

Original Author: Sunny Shi, Messari Crypto

Original Translation: Alex Liu, Foresight News

According to reports from major media quoting insider sources, pump.fun is preparing to sell 25% of the PUMP token at a $40 billion valuation to raise $10 billion. Is this price attractive? Messari's Sunny Shi has built a valuation model for PUMP, which shows its FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) could reach $70 billion. If the prediction is correct, buying the PUMP token would be a win. But there is an important premise.

Here is their valuation process (Sunny Shi's perspective, "we" refers to Messari):

Regardless of how you view meme coins, this track is still in the process of "printing money." Despite a slight decline in trading volume on pump.fun's issuance platform compared to the beginning of the year, it is still significantly higher than most of 2024.

Pump.fun's trading volume is higher than most of 24, data: Messari

People may also underestimate PumpSwap's success. This DEX was launched about three months ago but has already significantly eroded Raydium's market share on Solana.

Comparison of PumpSwap and Raydium's market share, data: Messari

Our valuation method follows a top-down model, assuming the overall trading volume of the crypto market, Solana's share, launchpad share, and PumpSwap market share. These assumptions and models are only available to corporate clients, but I will share the key findings.

In our base case scenario, we believe Memecoins will occupy a niche market in the broader crypto economy, as they are more suitable for speculative purposes than NFTs. Of course, the Solana ecosystem will undoubtedly diversify to new assets as it matures, but this point is also likely to hold true.

We believe that even though pump.fun's share within the Solana ecosystem has slightly decreased, PumpSwap's continued growth, the pump project is still expected to generate approximately $675 million in revenue over the next two years. Calculated with a 10x valuation multiple, the corresponding FDV is approximately $7 billion.

However, a key assumption is: if the project team chooses an opaque token/equity structure, allocating most of the revenue to insiders rather than token holders, we believe the current market has become quite cautious and will not overlook this poor value accumulation method. In our full report, we provide a valuation table to assess PUMP's potential value based on the percentage of income token holders can receive.

Regardless of how the market ultimately judges, this is an excellent opportunity to participate in one of the most profitable crypto applications in history. It now depends on whether the project team provides token holders with enough buy-in to make it an investment-worthy project.

Editor's Note: In the pre-market perpetual trading market on Aevo, PUMP's price is currently $6, corresponding to a $60 billion FDV (fully diluted market cap).