Original Title: "How Many Times Did Trump Urge Powell to Cut Rates? Why Didn't Powell Cut?"

Original Author: Deng Tong, Golden Finance

On June 24, 2025, Trump posted on his social media platform "TrueSocial," stating, "Mr. Too Late" Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman, will explain today in Congress why he refused to lower interest rates. Europe has already cut rates 10 times, while we have done 0 times. No inflation, economic prosperity - we should lower by at least 2 to 3 percentage points. This would save the U.S. $800 billion per year.

From Trump's inauguration in January to date, how many times has he urged Powell to cut rates? Why did Trump urge this? Why didn't Powell cut rates?

1. How Many Times Did Trump Urge Powell?

· On June 24, U.S. President Trump posted on his social media platform "TrueSocial," stating, "Mr. Too Late" Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will explain today in Congress why he refused to lower interest rates. Europe has already cut rates 10 times, while we have done 0 times. No inflation, economic prosperity - we should lower by at least 2 to 3 percentage points. This would save the U.S. $800 billion per year.

· On June 21, Trump posted on social media: "Mr. Too Late" Powell is always complaining about costs - most of these costs are caused by the Biden administration. The most significant way he can contribute to the U.S. now is to decisively lower interest rates. If he could lower rates by one or two basis points, this "blockhead" could save the U.S. up to $1 trillion in spending each year. Although my strong criticism may make it harder for him to fulfill his duties (cut rates), I have tried all mild means: I have been polite, neutral, and tough, but unfortunately, all have failed! Don't use "future inflation risks" as an excuse - because there is no inflation now! Even if it appears in the future, there will be time to raise rates then. I really don't understand why the FOMC doesn't replace this complete idiot! Maybe I need to change my mind on whether to fire Powell. But no need to hurry, his term is almost over anyway!

· On June 18, Trump said the U.S. had collected $880 billion from tariffs and "there is no inflation," reiterating his call for a rate cut. He said, "If the Fed lowers rates, we will buy U.S. bonds at a lower price. However, to be frank, we have a foolish person at the Fed who probably won't cut rates today. He's doing a terrible job. We should cut rates by 200 basis points, and it would be even better if we could cut by 250 basis points. I plan to take a short-term strategy first, sharply reduce the rate, and then switch to a long-term strategy."

· On June 13, Trump stated that he did not intend to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, but referred to him as a "fool" for not lowering interest rates. Trump claimed during his remarks that reducing rates by 200 basis points annually could save the U.S. $600 billion. Trump said, "We're spending $600 billion a year because of one 'fool' sitting there saying 'I don't see enough reasons to cut rates right now.'" Trump added that if inflation were to rise, he would agree to a Fed rate hike, "but now the inflation is down, and I might have to do something."

· On June 12, Trump pointed out: I will not be firing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell; he just needs to lower rates, and our inflation data looks good. I've told Powell that there's no need to keep rates at such a high level; if inflation shows up in a year, then raise rates.

· On June 6, Trump stated that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell should cut rates. The rate should be lowered by a full percentage point; Europe has cut rates ten times in a row, and we haven't taken any rate-cutting measures. The Fed's "Mr. Too Late" is a disaster.

· On June 4, Trump tweeted on social media that the ADP data was out, and "Mr. Too Late" Federal Reserve Chairman Powell must now cut rates. He's so incredible; Europe has already cut rates nine times.

· On May 14, Trump tweeted on "Real Social" saying that there is no inflation, the price of gasoline, energy, groceries, and almost all other goods is falling! The Fed must lower rates like Europe and China. "Mr. Too Late" Powell, why hesitate? This is unfair to America, which is ready to thrive. Let nature take its course; it will be a beautiful thing!

· On April 23, Trump, attending the swearing-in ceremony of SEC Chairman Atkins, stated that he has no intention of firing Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, although he is disappointed in the Fed's lack of quicker rate cuts. "Never," Trump told reporters, "the media always makes it a mess. I'm not going to fire him. I'd like to see him more active in the idea of lowering rates." Trump said, "Grocery prices have fallen, everything is falling. The only thing that hasn't fallen but also hasn't risen much is the interest rate." Trump stated, "We believe the Fed should lower rates, and now is a perfect time. We hope our Chairman can do it either early or on time, not late." Trump also mentioned that the stock market is doing well.

· On April 22, Trump said that if Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell does not lower rates immediately, the country's economy could slow down. Trump asserted on his social media platform on Monday that the drop in energy and commodity prices determined that there would be "almost no inflation." "But the economy could slow down unless 'Mr. Too Late,' this big waste of space, cuts rates now," Trump once again used a derogatory term to refer to Powell.

· On April 18, President Trump delivered a speech at the White House, reiterating his call for Federal Reserve Chair Powell to lower interest rates. He also mentioned that the U.S. is very likely to reach an agreement with Ukraine. Federal Reserve Chair Powell, during a recent speech at the Chicago Economics Club, explicitly stated that the Fed would not take emergency measures to intervene in response to market volatility. Powell's remarks immediately drew strong criticism from President Trump.

· On April 17, Trump once again pressured Powell, stating he could dismiss Powell immediately and demanding an immediate rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

· On April 4, Trump said, "For Federal Reserve Chair Powell, now is the best time to cut interest rates. Powell always acts too late." (Addressing Federal Reserve Chair Powell) "Cut rates, stop playing politics."

· On March 24, during a White House Cabinet meeting, Trump once again urged the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy.

· On March 19, Trump tweeted on "Real Social Media" saying, "The Federal Reserve had better cut interest rates because the impact of U.S. tariffs is starting to be felt in the economy."

· On February 12, Trump stated that he believed rates should be lowered, and a rate cut would complement the forthcoming tariff policy.

· On January 24, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Trump stated, "As the price of oil drops, I will demand an immediate rate cut, and likewise, the whole world should cut rates."

According to Golden Finance's statistics, Trump has urged Powell at least 17 times and has referred to him multiple times as "Mr. Too Late" and a "fool," expressing his dissatisfaction with Powell.

II. Why Is Trump in a Rush to Cut Rates?

· Offsetting the Impact of Tariff Policies: Trump's implementation of tariff policies has led to higher costs of imported goods, causing cost-push inflation and posing risks of inflation exacerbation and economic growth slowdown in the U.S. He hopes to use rate cuts to "offset" the inflation brought about by the tariff policies and alleviate economic pressure. Fortune has reported: Trump hopes to lower interest rates to "offset" the inflation caused by his own tariff policies. The Associated Press believes that Trump's tariff policy has increased the risk of U.S. economic recession, and Trump seems to want to shift the blame to Powell.

· Reducing Government Debt Costs: U.S. Treasury data shows that federal debt interest payments are substantial and continuously growing. In the past eight months, federal debt interest payments amounted to about $776 billion. Compared to the same period last fiscal year, this represents a 7% increase, with last fiscal year's interest burden already reaching the highest level since the 1990s. Trump believes that a Fed rate cut can reduce the government's debt financing costs, claiming that a 2 percentage point rate cut could save $600 billion in interest costs annually. However, economists warn that this move could likely backfire. Lowering interest rates when there is no need based on economic fundamentals may lead to inflation concerns. A subsequent reduction in demand for U.S. Treasuries would then further drive up bond yields, thereby increasing the government's interest burden.

· Economic Growth Stimulus: Interest rate cuts usually increase market liquidity, stimulate business investment and household consumption, and drive economic growth. Trump may believe that the current U.S. economic growth is under some pressure and hopes to boost the economy through interest rate cuts to achieve his economic policy goals, such as promoting employment, enhancing corporate competitiveness, etc., which also helps increase his support among voters.

· Boost Stock Market Performance: Trump considers the performance of the U.S. stock market as an important achievement. Interest rate cuts can increase market liquidity, thereby stimulating credit expansion and asset price appreciation. The stock market will show a positive trend in the short term, benefiting his voter support.

III. Why Doesn't Powell Cut Interest Rates?

On June 19, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that although the Federal Reserve "can see that the labor market may be slowing down slowly," considering the current strong labor force participation rate and good wage growth, this kind of mild slowdown is not a cause for concern. He stated: "Although uncertainty about the economic outlook has diminished, it remains at a high level." As long as he sees the current labor market conditions along with reasonably good economic growth and gradually declining inflation, Powell said he is willing to wait for more information before deciding on the next steps.

Some data shows that despite a 0.3% decline in GDP in the first quarter of 2025, the labor market has shown strength: the unemployment rate remains stable at a low level of 4.5%, and wage growth is above 4%. Powell pointed out that "hard data" such as consumer spending, business investment, etc., still indicate that the economy is expanding at a rate of 1.5%-2%, which contrasts with the softness of "soft indicators" like manufacturing PMI. This structural contradiction led the Federal Reserve to believe that the economy is not currently in recession and does not need to stimulate demand through interest rate cuts.

IV. How Do Others View the Issue of Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts?

Supporting Interest Rate Cuts:

· U.S. Vice President Pence: The Federal Reserve's refusal to cut interest rates is a misguided monetary policy.

· Federal Reserve's Goolsbee stated that since Trump's tariffs on April 2, there has been no significant inflationary pressure, which may allow the Federal Reserve to cut rates again.

· Federal Reserve Board Member Bowman stated: "If inflation pressure is contained, I would support lowering the policy rate as soon as possible at the next meeting to bring it closer to a neutral level and maintain a healthy labor market."

· U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutenick stated, "The United States is the greatest country in the world, yet it has to endure the highest rates among all first-class countries. Our Federal Reserve Chairman clearly fears even his own shadow. What is truly sad about Powell's remarks is that he claims that tariffs have led to 'price increases in some related product categories, such as personal computers.' You would think Powell should know that there are no tariffs on personal computers. Not yet. Tariffs on semiconductors and computers will be announced after the Department of Commerce completes its analysis. These high rates are meaningless."

· FHFA Director Pulte: Fed Chair Powell Must Cut Interest Rates Immediately.

Opposing Interest Rate Cut:

· Fed's Barkin said that current data shows no pressing reason to cut interest rates, the labor market and consumer spending remain strong, the final outcome of the trade policy is still uncertain, and how it will impact prices and employment is unclear; companies expect to raise prices later this year as more high-priced imported goods have entered their inventories; companies unaffected by tariffs see trade policy chaos as an opportunity to raise prices.

· Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio: Fed in a Difficult Position, Should Not Cut Interest Rates.

5. Fed Interest Rate Cut Timing Prediction

· Fed's Harker stated that as the U.S. financial system faces growing challenges, the deficit must be controlled, and he is "very concerned" about the current government's fiscal situation. Harker also said, "On key data, we are becoming increasingly blind. We are concerned that the quality of economic data is deteriorating. Uncertainty is making forecasting monetary policy outlooks very difficult. However, within that uncertainty, the Fed may still cut interest rates later this year."

· Citigroup has adjusted its Fed interest rate cut expectation from July to September.

· Harris Financial Group Managing Partner Jamie Cox said that although the U.S. labor market remains strong, it is gradually cooling. Given the significant revision of the latest nonfarm payrolls report, I expect the Fed to resume rate cuts in July. Current wage levels are stable, but could change in the coming months. The biggest variable in the labor market is in real estate—the housing market has shown early signs of risk, and a cooling labor market will exacerbate this trend.

· Rate futures traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, in September and December.

· Franklin Templeton CEO: Expects the Fed to cut interest rates only once in 2025.

· Economist Gregory Daco from EY stated that he expects the Fed to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%. The Fed's recent comments reinforced a wait-and-see attitude, with officials showing no urgency to adjust policy in the face of increased economic uncertainty. The policy statement may not change much. The FOMC may reiterate that inflation is still "a bit high," the labor market conditions are "solid," and the unemployment rate is "stabilizing at a low level." It may reiterate that "the risks of rising unemployment and increasing inflation have increased," especially considering the uncertainty about the economic outlook. The midpoint of the rate expectations dot plot is expected to remain unchanged, with two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of the year. The dot plot is expected to show further rate cuts of 50 basis points to 3.4% in 2026 and to 3.1% in 2027. The policymakers' estimate of the long-term neutral rate may remain unchanged at 3%.

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