Debunked: Iran War Does Not Affect Bitcoin Hashrate

2025-06-27 15:00

Read this article in 8 Minutes

The daily fluctuation of hashrate data primarily reflects more the miners' block production "luck" rather than a structural change in the network's actual hashrate.

Original Title: Bitcoin Hashrate Slides Sparks Misconceptions - AGAIN!

Original Author: BlocksBridge Consulting

Original Translation: johyyn, BlockBeats

Editor's Note:

Recently, Bitcoin's network has experienced a significant drop in hashrate, triggering market speculation about "hashrate collapse" and geopolitical factors, especially after the US airstrike on an Iranian nuclear facility. This has led to a flurry of related discussions on social media platforms. However, such assessments often overlook the probabilistic fluctuation mechanism of hashrate estimation, as well as the impact of North American summer grid load management on mining pool operations. This article, based on the difficulty adjustment model and mainstream mining pool data, combined with US energy policies, Iranian compliance restrictions, and the latest legislative trends such as the "GENIUS Act," aims to clarify the true logic of the current hashrate changes for readers and avoid being misled by fragmented opinions.

The following is the original content (slightly reorganized for ease of reading comprehension):

Earlier this month, after reaching a historical high of nearly 950 EH/s for the seven-day moving average of Bitcoin hashrate, the indicator has now fallen to around 810 EH/s, a decrease of about 15%, prompting widespread market speculation. Some attribute this decline to geopolitical tensions, especially after the US strike on an Iranian nuclear facility.

Posts widely shared on social media platform X point out that this military action coincides closely with the decline in hashrate, speculating that this may have caused local Iranian miners to shut down, thus "extracting" some of the "secret hashrate" from the network. At the same time, there is renewed concern in the market about "hashrate collapse," especially against the backdrop of the average daily hashrate briefly dropping to 600 EH/s.

However, such interpretations often overlook the fundamental principles of how Bitcoin's hashrate estimation works, which is a common misconception that recurs every halving cycle.

Bitcoin's hashrate is estimated based on the current network mining difficulty and block time, meaning that short-term data fluctuations are usually due to probabilistic deviations. In particular, daily hashrate data is highly volatile, primarily reflecting miners' "luck" in finding blocks, rather than a structural change in the network's actual hashrate. Similarly, it is not rigorous to claim that Bitcoin's hashrate has exceeded 1 ZH/s (zettahash) based solely on a brief surge in data for a single day.

The specific technical formula is as follows:

Hashrate (Hash Rate, unit: H/s) = Mining Difficulty × 2³² / Average Block Time (seconds)

Within the same difficulty period, the numerator of this formula remains constant, so the fluctuation in hashrate estimation is entirely driven by changes in block time.

As each market cycle progresses, there are always newcomers who misinterpret these data's short-term fluctuations. The narrative of "hashrate collapse" is a common phenomenon in such downturns, even though Bitcoin mining is inherently a highly probabilistic process.

A more reasonable explanation is that the recent decline in hashrate may be due to seasonal power restrictions in the North American region. Pool-level data (as shown in the image below) indicates that the most significant drop occurred in the Foundry USA Pool, which experienced intermittent shutdowns and reboots. This operational pattern is highly consistent with the electricity limitation arrangements at mining farms to ensure grid stability during the peak summer period in the United States.

Source: Miningpoolstats on June 26

Even though some Iranian hashrate has been disrupted, its impact is limited compared to the current widespread power restrictions affecting major U.S. pools. Considering compliance requirements due to sanctions, Iran's large-scale hashrate is also unlikely to connect to U.S.-based pools like Foundry USA.

Looking ahead, the next Bitcoin mining difficulty adjustment is expected to take place around June 29, potentially marking the steepest downward adjustment since the implementation of the 2021 China mining ban, surpassing even the -7.32% recorded during the miner exodus in the 2022 bear market.

However, the overall network hashrate is gradually recovering. A few days ago, the estimated difficulty reduction for this round was close to -10%, but it is now adjusted to slightly below -8%. Regardless of the final adjustment magnitude, the expected difficulty reduction in this round will provide a certain degree of short-term relief for marginally operating miners, especially against the backdrop of the halving effect combined with summer power restrictions.

Source: "Original Article Link"