Article Source: OKX

「During the May 1st holiday, I stayed up for five or six consecutive days, barely sleeping, and watched the market for 20 hours a day. As a result, I lost all of my million-dollar investment. Loss is what truly tempers your character. If your 'U' is still in your account, your position has not been closed until you actually change your way of life」

In the cryptocurrency arena, filled with myths of wealth creation and instant bankruptcy, a post-95s trader with the ID "If I Don't Understand" has crafted his own legend with wisdom and hard work—from traditional trading to the coin circle, reaching the top of the futures leaderboard in nine months, earning tens of millions of dollars. He has provided a highly impactful and valuable example for countless participants in the market.

Recently, "If I Don't Understand" (@butaidongjiaoyi) was invited to visit the OKX Singapore office and engaged in a face-to-face conversation with host Mia Millie (@mia_okx). This article summarizes the core content of their dialogue.

From Traditional Trading to the Coin Circle, Experienced Both "Gold Rush to Becoming a Millionaire" and "Overnight Return to Square One"

Born in 1996, "If I Don't Understand" was initially not a trader but a cross-border e-commerce entrepreneur managing an Amazon store. In 2020, the madness of SHIB and the rise of AXS (Axie Infinity) opened a crack that allowed him to glimpse the magic of the crypto world. Since then, his life's trajectory has been closely intertwined with this 24/7 market.

Unlike many impulsive speculators, his entry into the market was marked by the rigor and diligence of an entrepreneur. During the day, he managed the daily operations of his store, while from 7 p.m. to 2 a.m., he immersed himself in the research of on-chain projects. His initial investment was insignificant—only using 7,000 RMB to purchase AXS—but he unexpectedly received multiple returns, which opened the door to a new world for him.

After tasting success, "If I Don't Understand" embarked on the "on-chain gold rush" with around 30,000 to 50,000 RMB in hand. He accurately seized the 2021 GameFi trend, an era that gamified the DeFi financial model. He did not settle for superficial experiences but spent months almost exploring all GameFi projects on the market, delving deep into their economic models and community gameplay. This extreme dedication yielded significant returns. In projects like Radio Caca, BinaryX, Cryptominers, and Farmer World, he turned his initial investment of tens of thousands into his first million. This bucket of gold is not only a accumulation of wealth but also his first major victory in validating his logic through in-depth research.

However, holding millions in cash, the mindset of a young person who had just graduated two or three years ago also changed. In May 2022, a sudden market turmoil occurred, with Ethereum plummeting from $3700 to $800, a cliff-like drop, even more severe than the "519 Black Swan" event. Faced with the market trend, he continued to increase his position, gambling on a rebound, attempting to use his funds to resist the entire market's downward trend, with predictable results. In less than two months, his asset position retreated more than 95%, with almost all of his millions in cash evaporating, back to square one overnight. This explosive loss became the most profound and painful lesson in his trading career.

"Being more diligent in reality is the only way to truly bring liquidity to Web3." After experiencing liquidation, he did not give up, but chose to reinvest in internet entrepreneurship. Relying on the stable income from his main business, he gradually accumulated funds and eventually made a comeback. When re-entering the blockchain market, he always adhered to a core principle: the principal investment should have a sufficient amount of net worth, the entry fund should be at least tens of thousands of RMB, and no debt should be incurred, otherwise, it will change the investment mindset.

"One must respect the market; nothing is impossible." From then on, his trading style underwent a thorough transformation—no longer trying to guess the market tops and bottoms but focusing on making money through a rigorous strategy and clear logic, and accepting whatever may happen in the market with composure. Waking up from the pain, "If I do not understand" marked the beginning of a true transformation. He seized the BRC-20 inscription in 2023 and the subsequent MEME coin craze, completing a second astonishing capital accumulation and achieving his first A8 result. This time, he was no longer the blindly confident gambler but a strategic and logically stringent hunter. His biggest on-chain profit came when, while others were shorting, he went long on neiro against the trend. At the same time, he also laid out his positions in Neiro on-chain, bringing in approximately $5 million in profit in the spot market alone. Reflecting on his initial motivation for buying in, it was not solely based on short-term arbitrage expectations but rather on the community consensus represented by Neiro.

"Why did I choose to go long on it? It was because, when evaluating every trade, I would refer to some 'benchmark items.' At that time, MEME projects like BONK and BOME that went live on-chain had an FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) of around $1 billion, some even higher, reaching $20 billion or $30 billion. So, for a project like neiro, which had good IP itself, I believed it could easily reach a similar benchmark valuation. Therefore, after its launch, despite many people choosing to short it, I remained steadfast in going long, and indeed, this wave also took it to the $1 billion market cap position. This was the first wave of substantial profits I made in the MEME sector." he shared. Thereafter, he proceeded to short PNUT and TRUMP, achieving more favorable outcomes.

Publicly available data shows that in the past 9 months, his smart contract trading has generated over $10 million in profit. In June of this year, a single ETH transaction reached a profit of $7.5 million.

$10 Million Transaction System: Earning Only "Consensus" Money, Not Gambling on Technical Luck

In the eyes of "If I Don't Understand," trading is not mysticism but rather a system that can be deconstructed and learned. At the core of this system is not the pursuit of cutting-edge technology or the most complex indicators, but a return to the essence of business and human nature—consensus. With a real-world track record of tens of millions of dollars, he has proven this seemingly simple yet profoundly insightful trading philosophy.

He straightforwardly points out the underlying logic of buying coins: "A token rises in value not because its technology is impressive, but because 'someone believes it is worth that much.'" He believes that the core task of a trader is to become a keen "consensus hunter"—constantly seeking, judging, and validating where in the market this powerful consensus can be generated, aggregated, and sparked. Technology, narrative, and community are merely tools and vehicles for forming consensus.

How to discover the germ of consensus? "If I Don't Understand" answers: follow liquidity. He broadened his perspective from within Crypto to the entire macroeconomy. "Every era has its own opportunities. The early years were about investing in factories, later it was about buying houses. By the time I graduated, those opportunities were scarce. Seeing money flowing into crypto, I knew the opportunity was here." Within Crypto, this logic applies as well. He closely tracks those paradigmatic projects capable of breaking through liquidity bottlenecks, achieving a $1 billion market cap, and closely monitors the second and third waves they trigger. Because these projects define new wealth effects, funds and attention naturally follow.

His rise to success perfectly illustrates his philosophy of switching tracks. He clearly dissected the inherent logic of three major waves: Wave 1 (GameFi): Gamification of DeFi. He believes the essence of GameFi is to transform the "DeFi staking to earn APR" mundane process into a "gold farming" game, essentially DeFi 2.0. Through in-depth research of its economic model, he completed his initial capital accumulation.

Wave 2 (Inscription/BRC-20): Short-cycle "boosteronomics." He attributes its essence to a sort of "Ponzi model" that relies on "more people knowing about it, more funds entering." Yet, he keenly pointed out its fatal flaw: unlike ICOs, the fees from Inscription go to miners, who are not obligated to pump. This doomed it to be a short-cycle wealth creation opportunity. Therefore, after making a tenfold profit on Avalanche Inscription, he quickly exited his position.

Third Wave (MEME): An extension of Solana-induced FOMO sentiment. He believes MEME is similar to meme logic, belonging to the attention economy's conduction and is a continuation of Solana's on-chain wealth effect, further catalyzed by platforms like Pump.fun. His multimillion-dollar profit was achieved at this stage. The classic battle was on the neiro project, where he referenced MEMEs such as BONK, which had already reached a $1 billion market cap, as a "benchmark" and confidently went long while most were bearish, ultimately successfully capturing its massive surge to a $1 billion market cap.

"If I Don't Understand" is not only adept at going long, his short logic is equally clear and deadly. He believes that the best time to short comes from a precise grasp of market sentiment. The core logic is: when a project experiences a crazy surge without any substantial pullback, reaching an unreasonably high valuation completely disconnected from its fundamentals, it will inevitably undergo a brutal washout process to cleanse early profit-takers. He used PNUT and TRUMP as examples to explain his shorting decisions. Both projects experienced a short but intense rally after being listed on all major exchanges, with no signs of a washout. In his view, this "rally without a pullback" itself is the most dangerous signal, providing a high risk-reward ratio and certainty for low-leverage shorting.

From Newbie to Expert: A 4-Step Practical Handbook to Conquer the World with Just a Smartphone

"My experience cannot be replicated, but my insights, patterns, and methodology for seizing opportunities can be shared." "If I Don't Understand" has distilled his experience into a highly practical operational manual. The core of this manual emphasizes building one's own trading system through systematic learning and practice under the premise of manageable risk.

It can only be "grown up alone in the wilderness." He firmly believes that the blockchain industry is destined to be a self-learning process because information iterates too quickly, and no one can teach you step by step. It was through his own hard work of studying from 7 p.m. to 2 a.m. every night, personally practicing, and losing money that he gained valuable first-hand experience. He provides two efficient information filtering methods: First, the KOL selection method. Rather than blindly following a massive amount of information, it's better to find KOLs who can discover and promote potential projects earliest. Following them is like having them help you with the first round of information filtering, greatly improving efficiency. For example, the hippo in the Thai zoo was found through a KOL. Second, the community deep dive method. Delving into a project's community on Discord, Telegram, and other platforms is core to judging a project's vitality. A truly vibrant community will have genuine discussions, timely Q&A, and positive emotions. Conversely, if the community is filled with bots and shills, it indicates that its consensus foundation is false.

How can one "layout in obscurity and exit in the midst of attention"? This ancient saying in the investment world has been given a clear and actionable signal definition by him:

1) Regarding precise entry signals: When you see a project, the team is consistently active on social media, the roadmap is clear, and the product functionality is gradually being implemented, but the mainstream market has not yet realized its huge potential, that is the best early entry opportunity.

2) Regarding clear exit signals: When the project's popularity is widely recognized by the market, FOMO sentiment is in full swing, the media and community are all discussing it, and its market value has benchmarked or even surpassed similar benchmark projects, it indicates that risks are accumulating, and a phased exit should be considered.

3) Exclusive auxiliary indicators: He also observes some macro correlation indicators as "canaries", such as the stock price changes of USDC issuer Circle, which can serve as a reference for judging overall market sentiment or expectations. On the news front, it is more about two functions, one is to help you judge expectations, and the other is to help you play defense.

Preserving the principal is the qualification for a turnaround—this is the highest law he distilled from the pain of losses. He emphasizes that one should never let their entire position bear significant risk, and must always reserve 30% to 50% of the principal, which is the "revolutionary spark" that can rise again in the next cycle. He provides a position management tiered strategy:

1) Small funds (tens of thousands of RMB or less): can be more aggressive, such as going all-in on the Meme track, but it must be diversified into different tokens. At the same time, the best holding ratio for a single project should not exceed 1% of its total supply to avoid being identified by the project party or main funds and targeted for a washout.

2) Large funds: Security always comes first. He specifically points out that when dealing with altcoin-related contracts, his position generally does not exceed $10,000 to $20,000. Because once it exceeds this level, market liquidity becomes a problem, and your position can easily be calculated for a liquidation cost by the opposing market maker, thus being accurately targeted. He recommends that most of the large funds be used for periodic trading or to follow quantitative strategies in oscillating markets.

3) General position building rhythm ("quarter position" strategy): This is a position-building method that combines offense and defense. First, invest 25% of the funds at entry; if the trend does not match expectations, then use another 25% of the funds to build a better position at a more ideal price; the remaining 50% serves as a strategic reserve and must be retained, waiting for the market pressure to be completely released or for high certainty opportunities to emerge before using it.

Additionally, he believes that traders must master the "common language" of trading, such as candlestick patterns, MACD, KDJ, RSI, and other basic technical indicators. However, he also emphasizes that these can only serve as auxiliary tools. On top of this, he has developed his own exclusive philosophy and strategy.

He quantified the abstract "market sentiment" or "market feel" into an observable indicator called "momentum." For example, at the opening of the US stock market, if Bitcoin rises by 0.1% and at the same time Ethereum rises by 0.5%, it indicates that Ethereum has very strong momentum. Conversely, if Ethereum doesn't rise but falls instead, the momentum is weak. By observing the interconnected reactions of different assets within a trend cycle, one can more accurately grasp the strength of market sentiment.

For better cost efficiency and a higher risk-reward ratio, he strongly recommends using limit orders instead of market orders. For long positions, he adopts the "Black Swan Order Flow" strategy. During extreme market panic, he deploys limit orders at pre-calculated key technical support levels or psychological support levels to catch those "bloodied chips" sold off irrationally. For short positions, he deploys limit orders at key resistance levels. If the price aggressively breaks through and holds above that level, he promptly exits with a stop-loss; however, as long as the price fails to break through, the potential return of this trade will far exceed the risk of the stop-loss.

The End Game of Trading: Slow Wealth Rules, The Practice Against Human Nature

When trading transitions from skill to philosophy, the ultimate test is no longer the model or tool, but the trader's understanding of human nature, wealth, and self. The sharing of "If I do not understand" ultimately returns to the core of this "life and death" game—a practice of inner transformation against human nature.

He believes that successful traders may fall into two completely different extremes: one is extreme greed, and the other is extreme prudence. He categorizes himself as the latter, but this prudence is not conservative. His choice is to maintain prudence in daily trading but to exhibit necessary greed at moments of high certainty.

"If you don't go all in, you simply cannot achieve such results," he admits. However, this "all in" is not mindless gambling, but rather a high degree of self-confidence and full commitment to oneself after completing all logical deductions and risk assessments. Currently, this heavy position operation leans more towards spot trading, while contracts are only used in two situations: short-term liquidity gap capturing, or long-term positioning with leverage below 3x in large cycles.

Huge wealth seems to have not changed his life trajectory. He shares that his life has basically remained the same, constantly reminding himself not to take undue pride in achievements or engage in irrational spending. He still cares about the "quality" of money spent, pays attention to value for money, and will still take home leftovers from a meal that he can't finish alone. This restraint towards material desires and equanimity towards life may be the crucial mental foundation that enables him to navigate bull and bear markets and preserve profits.

Faced with countless followers, he chose to refuse the most direct way of monetization through "copy trading." He believes that "giving a man a fish is not as good as teaching a man to fish." The copy trading model is more like a fund management approach; it cannot replicate true trading abilities nor adapt to everyone's risk appetite and personality. He prefers to share his analysis methods, thought patterns, and experiences of failure, hoping to help more people establish their own trading systems and seize opportunities tailored to them.

「My personal experience is definitely not replicable,」 he soberly acknowledged, 「but I can share my insights, patterns, and how to seize opportunities, which I believe can help some people seize their own opportunities in the future.」

At the end of the interview, he gave his most core and heaviest advice. He has received many private messages from debtors, and in response to this, he strongly discourages trading while in debt.

「Once you have debt, your ability to withstand risk is very low, but the risk you face is very high.」 Debt will greatly distort your trading mindset, causing you to lose patience in waiting for opportunities and eventually collapse in the normal market fluctuations.

He believes that making money, especially making money in the trading market, is essentially a process of waiting for opportunities. Patience is the highest virtue.

「Like Buffett said, nobody wants to get rich slowly. So, you have to go against this human nature and be willing to wait for time to make you wealthy. Slow wealth is king.」

This profound statement is not only his summary of his trading career but also the ultimate reminder to all market participants. In this infinite game against greed, fear, and human weaknesses, the final victory belongs to those who can befriend time.

Disclaimer:

This article is for reference only. This article represents the author's views and not the position of OKX. This article is not intended to provide (i) investment advice or investment recommendations; (ii) an offer or solicitation to buy, sell, or hold digital assets; (iii) financial, accounting, legal, or tax advice. We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of such information. Holding digital assets (including stablecoins and NFTs) involves high risks and may experience significant price volatility. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding digital assets is suitable for your financial situation. For your specific situation, please consult your legal/tax/investment professional. You are solely responsible for understanding and complying with relevant local laws and regulations.

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