The core project WLFI, which the Trump family has been preparing for six months, will go live tonight at 8 p.m., attracting worldwide attention. Some are betting on the price movement, while others are trading meme coins. Apart from the actual "betting on the direction" trading, can we find a more certain way to profit from this hype? The answer is arbitrage. In this article, BlockBeats has compiled some actionable arbitrage opportunities related to WLFI:

Price Spread Arbitrage

1. Price Spread Arbitrage Between CEXs

Due to the different matching rules, opening hours, order book density, fees, and deposit/withdrawal arrangements of different exchanges, there can be a price spread for WLFI in a short period, creating an arbitrage opportunity.

For example, if WLFI opens for spot trading on Binance tonight at 9 p.m. but withdrawals are only allowed tomorrow night at 9 p.m., this means that before withdrawals are enabled, funds can only "flow into Binance and sell to the on-platform buy orders," but cannot temporarily "flow out," causing the on-platform price to be more easily inflated due to one-way flow.

The executable strategy is quite simple. First, select two to three controllable scenarios as a "price spread triangle," usually involving a top-tier CEX (mostly Binance today due to its high buy orders and public attention), a secondary CEX that supports withdrawals (preferably with lower fees for smoother transactions), and an on-chain observer (such as Uniswap's WLFI pool to assess the strength of on-chain buy orders).

Simultaneously monitor the order books and recent trades on both exchanges to track the price difference of WLFI. Once you observe that Binance's price is significantly higher than another exchange, and after accounting for maker/taker fees, spreads, and possible slippage, the net difference is still positive, you can buy on one exchange and sell on Binance.

The challenge lies not in the "logic" but in the "pace." Cross-exchange arbitrage is essentially a race against latency: whether deposits/withdrawals are enabled, risk control pop-ups, on-chain confirmations, or even your own confirmation speed will determine whether this 0.x% to 1.x% gross profit can be realized. Therefore, starting with a small amount to go through the entire process, understanding the time and costs of each step, and then scaling up is the most stable approach.

2. Triangle Arbitrage

Triangle arbitrage can be understood as an upgraded version of "Price Spread Arbitrage Between CEXs," involving more on-chain paths and sometimes requiring currency exchange between stablecoins. This offers more opportunities but also more friction.

One of the most common triangular arbitrage opportunities in the early stages of a project is the "three-sandwich price difference": the on-chain price of BNB is approximately equal to the on-chain price of Solana, greater than the Ethereum mainnet price, and greater than the on-platform CEX price. Since the pools on BNB and Solana chains are usually small and filled with bots, prices are more likely to be driven up by a few trades; Ethereum has high transaction fees, fewer bots, and relatively conservative trading, resulting in a slightly lower price; centralized exchanges are controlled by market makers and often do not enable deposits/withdrawals or set limits, preventing immediate price equilibrium, and therefore, the spot price is the lowest. Due to WLFI's multi-chain deployment, there is also room for such operations.

In addition, the new stablecoin USD1 may experience slight depegging or fee discrepancies compared to USDT/USDC, which can also amplify the gains from the loop.

However, it is important to note that triangular arbitrage is more complex compared to CEX arbitrage, and beginners are advised not to attempt it. The prerequisite is to have a good understanding of cross-chain mechanisms, cross-chain paths, slippage, and fees, among other factors.

3. Spot-Perpetual Basis/Funding Rate Arbitrage

This "Spot-Perpetual Basis/Funding Rate" arbitrage is also commonly used by market makers, market-neutral funds, quants, and arbitrageurs. Retail traders can also participate, but due to smaller trade volumes, higher fees, and borrowing costs, the advantages are not as significant.

The primary sources of gain in this arbitrage are twofold: firstly, the funding rate. When the perpetual price is higher than the spot price and the funding rate is positive, long positions need to periodically pay "interest" to short positions—this is where you go long on spot and short on perpetual, collecting this interest. Conversely, when the funding rate is negative, you go "sell spot + long perpetual," with shorts paying longs. This way, your net exposure is close to zero, the funding rate acts like a savings account interest, settling periodically over time, capturing the cash flow from the "sentiment premium/pessimism discount."

Secondly, basis reversion. During listings or emotional volatility, the perpetual may experience a one-time premium or discount relative to the spot price; when emotions cool down and market-making stabilizes, the perpetual will converge towards the spot/index price, allowing you to capture this one-time "narrowing of the spread" profit within your hedge structure. When combined, it becomes a combination of "interest + reversion," subtracting borrowing costs, fees, and slippage to calculate the net return.

However, it is essential to understand various information about different trading platforms' liquidation mechanisms, slippage, fees, funding rate settlement times, trading depth, etc., to prevent a forced liquidation event like XPL. Related reading: "Both Lighter's ETH and HL's XPL have been pinned. How to avoid manipulation by whales and forced liquidation?"

Furthermore, in the most common "long spot + short perpetual" strategy, you can also find some vaults with relatively high annual percentage yields (APY), such as StakeStone and Lista DAO vaults offering over 40% APY after subsidies.

4. Composite LP+ Short Selling Hedge Arbitrage

A standalone liquidity provider (LP) is not arbitrage, it is more like "exchanging transaction fees for impermanent loss." However, if combined with overlay short hedging, leaving only the net revenue curve of "fee - funding rate/loan interest - rebalancing cost," it is also a good hedging strategy.

The most common structure is to provide centralized liquidity on-chain (such as in the WLFI/USDC or WLFI/ETH pool), while shorting an equivalent nominal value of WLFI perpetual on an exchange; if there is no perpetual, you can also borrow and sell spot in a margin account, but the friction will be greater. The purpose of doing this is just to avoid betting on price movements, focusing solely on "the more trades executed, the thicker the fees."

When executing, consider the LP as a "fee-charging market-making range." First, choose a fee rate and price range that you can keep an eye on, such as a 0.3% or 1% fee layer for a new token with the range set to a "moderate width" close to the current price. After deployment, part of the LP position will become WLFI spot, part will be stablecoin, and you use this WLFI portion's "nominal equivalent" to short the perpetual, initially aligning the USD value of the two legs. The price oscillates within the range, with the on-chain leg earning fees from swaps and passively earning a bit of spread from rebalancing; the short leg bears the risk of adverse price movements, approaching overall neutrality. If the funding rate is positive at this point, your short leg can earn additional interest; if the funding rate is negative, you'll need to rely on wider ranges, lower leverage, and less frequent rebalancing to support your net revenue.

The difference from basis arbitrage is that basis arbitrage exploits the spread regression between perpetual and spot and the funding rate, while here you are benefiting from the "on-chain transaction fee." The difference from pure LP is that the P&L of pure LP largely depends on price direction and impermanent loss.

WLFI Stock ALTs and WLFI Hedge

ALT5 Sigma (Nasdaq: ALTS) raised approximately $1.5 billion through a combination of stock issuance and private placement, part of which was directly exchanged for WLFI tokens and the other part used to allocate WLFI in the secondary market, thus making themselves a "treasury/agent exposure" holder of WLFI. For more reading on WLFI Stock ALT5 Sigma (Nasdaq: ALTS), see: "Afraid to buy tokens, is there still an opportunity in WLFI stock ALTs?"

Simultaneously observe the price movement of ALTS and WLFI; logically, one should be short on the strong side and long on the weak side, closing the hedge when it returns to normal. For example, if WLFI rises first due to narrative-driven hype, while ALTS is constrained by the U.S. stock trading session or borrowing costs causing "lagging behind," the price difference widens; when the U.S. stock market opens and funds fill the "agent exposure" of ALTS, this price gap will revert.

If you use WLFI perpetual swaps for hedging, you may also incidentally receive funding fees, but the main profit still comes from the spread itself, rather than just one-directional movement.

The key difference from the previous "Basis/Funding Rate Arbitrage" is that there is no deterministic anchor between "Spot-PERP" here. Instead, stocks are treated as holding a "shadow" of WLFI. The logic is more similar to the old train of thought of "BTC and MSTR," but the challenge lies in friction and timing. While the crypto side operates 24/7, WLFI unlocks at 8 am. However, Nasdaq opens at 9:30, so any trading before that is pre-market trading. Pre-market trading allows for placing and matching orders, but the matching rules differ from regular trading hours, and one must also consider the possibility of halts/circuit breakers.

WLFI Market Value Betting on Polymarket

Currently, there are two bets on Polymarket regarding WLFI, both concerning the market value on the day of WLFI's listing. One is a tiered market (<$10B, $10–12B…, >$16B five options), and the second is a threshold market (>$13B, >$20B, >$35B three binary choices).

Since both ask about the "FDV of WLFI one day after listing," their prices must align: the total probability of the five tiers in the tiered market must sum to 100%. Therefore, the price for the ">$16B" tier in the tiered market must align with P(>16B) in the threshold market.

Simultaneously, the sum of prices in the complement of the tiers in the tiered market (<$10B, 10–12B, 12–14B, 14–16B four tiers) must equal 1 − P(>16B) in the threshold market. If you notice an imbalance between the two sides, such as a high price for ">$16B" in the tiered market but the sum of the four tiers is not low, resulting in the sum of ">$16B + the other four tiers" being significantly greater than 1, you should sell on the expensive side or use No hedging while buying the cheaper side to create a "guaranteed $1, cost <$1" basket. If the sum is less than 1, you should buy both sides to lock in the difference.

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