Original Article Title: "Huobi Growth Institute | Crypto Market Macro Research Report: Latest Outlook of the Crypto Market under Fed Rate Cut Expectations"

Original Source: Huobi Growth Institute

1. Macro Background Overview

The current global macro environment is at a delicate and crucial turning point. With the continuous weakening of US economic data, the market has almost formed a strong consensus on the Fed's upcoming rate cut on September 17. The CME FedWatch tool and data from the decentralized prediction market Polymarket show that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in this interest rate meeting has soared to the range of 88%–99%, almost a certain outcome. On the evening of September 10, according to Golden Ten, the US August PPI year-on-year was 2.6%, expected 3.3%, and the previous value was 3.30%, lower than the July 3.1% year-on-year increase. Additionally, it was significantly below expectations. After the unexpected lower-than-expected increase in the August PPI eased market concerns about inflationary pressures hindering monetary easing, traders bet on Wednesday that the Fed might initiate a series of rate cuts and continue through the end of the year. Based on futures contracts linked to the Fed's policy rate, the market expects the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at the next week's meeting and then continue with the same magnitude of cuts throughout the year.

At the same time, some Wall Street institutions and international banks, such as Bank of America and Standard Chartered Bank, even further deduce that there may be room for a second rate cut later in the year. Although the aggressive action of a one-time 50 basis point cut is still considered a low-probability event by the market, in the context of a sudden rapid cooling of the labor market, this possibility is no longer completely ignored. The direct trigger for this shift in policy expectations is the recent significant deterioration of the US employment market. In August, non-farm payrolls only added 22,000 jobs, far below the market's previous expectations in the range of 160,000 to 180,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3%, reaching a new high since 2021. More impactful is the Labor Department's benchmark revision of employment data over the past year, with a one-time downward adjustment of over 900,000 jobs. This means that the robust employment narrative on which the market has relied in recent months was significantly overestimated, and the true condition of the labor market is more fragile than it appears. Compared to historical experience, such a significant data revision usually only occurs at the beginning of an economic recession or after a major shock, thus quickly intensifying the market's expectations for the Fed to swiftly pivot towards easing.

However, the slowdown in employment has not led to a synchronous rapid decline in inflation, but has instead created a complex situation of "growth deceleration + sticky inflation." The latest data shows that US CPI remains around 2.9%, and core PCE fluctuates in the range of 2.9%–3.1%, significantly higher than the Fed's 2% long-term target. This inflation stickiness means that policymakers are still under pressure when loosening monetary policy, as they have to provide a cushion for the cooling job market while avoiding overly stimulating prices to rise again. This dilemma has significantly increased the market's divergence on the Fed's subsequent policy path: doves emphasize that the deterioration of the labor market has already posed systemic risks and calls for a faster and more aggressive rate cut, while hawks believe that the current price levels should not be ignored, and an early shift could weaken long-term inflation anchoring. Every move by the Fed will be magnified and interpreted in the financial markets. Against this backdrop, financial market price signals also reflect rapid changes in expectations. The US dollar index continues to be under pressure, falling to its lowest level in nearly a year, showing investors' reassessment of the attractiveness of US dollar assets.

In contrast, safe-haven assets and liquidity-sensitive assets have performed strongly. Gold has been steadily rising since the summer, recently breaking through the $3600 per ounce mark, continuously setting new historical highs, and becoming the most direct beneficiary of loose liquidity expectations. In the bond market, long-term interest rates have significantly dropped after experiencing volatility from the beginning of the year, and the yield curve remains deeply inverted, reinforcing the market's concerns about the risk of future economic recession. Meanwhile, the stock market has shown relative differentiation, with the technology and growth sectors benefiting from the expectation of declining interest rates maintaining resilience, while traditional cyclical sectors have struggled under fundamental pressures.

This macro landscape is not just a turning point in US domestic monetary policy for global capital markets but is also interpreted as the beginning of a new global liquidity cycle. The European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, and central banks in emerging markets are all monitoring the Federal Reserve's moves, with some markets even preemptively sending out signals of easing in an attempt to seize the opportunity for global fund reallocation. As the US dollar weakens, some emerging market currencies have gained a breather, and commodity prices have remained robust supported by liquidity expectations. This spillover effect means that the September FOMC meeting is not just an event in the US financial market but a key turning point in the global risk asset pricing framework. For the cryptocurrency market, this macro background is particularly important. Over the past decade, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have gradually shifted from fringe assets to part of mainstream investment portfolios, with their price fluctuations increasingly correlated with the macro liquidity environment.

Historical experience shows that Bitcoin often anticipates easing monetary policy, displaying a characteristic of "expectation-driven growth"; however, after the policy is implemented, the market sometimes experiences a short-term pullback due to deteriorating economic realities despite selling on the fact. Today, in a complex scenario of rapidly weakening employment, persistent inflation stickiness, a continuously weak US dollar, and gold hitting new highs repeatedly, Bitcoin's pricing logic is at a key juncture of the policy expectation and economic reality game. Whether traders, institutional investors, or retail participants, all are closely watching the September 17th Federal Reserve meeting, as this juncture may become the decisive turning point for the cryptocurrency market trend in the coming months and throughout the year.

II. Current Overview of the Cryptocurrency Market

Recently, the market price of Bitcoin has stabilized around $113,000, with a weekly gain of about 2.4%, overall remaining in a relatively stable range. It is noteworthy that the current volatility level has dropped to a low point in the past few months, indicating that the market has entered a phase of observation and momentum accumulation. Several analysts have pointed out that the key short-term technical range is between $110,700–$114,000: if the price can effectively break above $114,000 and stabilize, it is expected to open up a new round of upward momentum, with the market shifting its bet to the "return of liquidity"; whereas, if it falls below $110,700, the $107,000 level becomes the primary support, and if this level is breached, it may trigger a deeper retracement to around $100,000. This pattern of resistance above and support below precisely reflects investors' cautious attitude towards the upcoming Federal Reserve policy window, with the market temporarily choosing to control positions before the key news lands, weakening short-term volatility. Compared to Bitcoin's consolidation, Ethereum has shown slightly weaker performance recently, accompanied by continued net outflows from ETFs, indicating a contraction in funding. Some market participants believe that Ethereum's current ecosystem narrative is relatively weak, with Layer 2 scalability and staking races entering a cooling-off period after the frenzy of the first half of the year, lacking incremental institutional funding motivation in the short term.

However, ETH's on-chain activity still remains resilient, with DeFi utilization and staking scale remaining high, which has somewhat cushioned the negative impact of fund outflows. In contrast, assets like XRP and Solana experienced a temporary rebound due to expectations of interest rate cuts, especially XRP, which saw a single-day increase of about 4% after ETF-related products gained market attention, showing that some investors have shifted their risk appetite to second-tier mainstream coins during Bitcoin's consolidation period. Solana continues to rely on ecosystem innovation and institutional interest, particularly with the news of its Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) concept gaining entry into Nasdaq, making it a pioneer case of on-chain capital marketization, providing an independent catalyst for SOL. ETF fund flows are one of the core structural factors in the current market. Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum ETFs have shown net outflows in recent weeks, indicating a short-term cautious attitude from institutional funds, but there are still new products and potential approvals that remain a focus of market attention. For example, the approval expectations for XRP ETFs and a new batch of Bitcoin ETFs are still seen as key catalysts that could ignite a new round of fund inflows. Some research institutions project that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates by a total of 75–100 basis points by 2025, it could release over $6 billion of incremental funds into crypto ETF products, becoming a potential structural buying force. This logic is similar to the experience of 2024 when ETF inflows and corporate coin purchases drove Bitcoin to strengthen against the rate cut. However, the pace of ETF inflows in 2025 has significantly slowed down, and the market is waiting for new fund triggers.

In addition to the traditional Bitcoin, Ethereum, and ETF logic, emerging narratives are also shaping the market structure. Firstly, the rapid rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT) has emerged as a hybrid model combining equity financing of public companies with on-chain reserves, extending from the cases of Bitcoin and Ethereum to the Solana ecosystem. Recently, SOL Strategies received approval for listing on Nasdaq, indicating an accelerating integration of traditional capital markets with crypto asset reserve mechanisms. During a bull market, DATs often form a positive feedback loop through asset appreciation and capital premium, but in a bear market, the risks of redemption and selling amplify, making its pro-cyclical nature an innovative product highly watched by the market. Some analysts refer to DAT as the "next ETF," expecting it to become an institutional sector of the capital market in the coming years. Meanwhile, Meme coins and high-risk meme contract markets remain hot, serving as indicators of retail investor sentiment. In the backdrop of mainstream coins lacking trend-driven rallies, a significant amount of funds flow into meme projects with high short-term volatility, such as Dogecoin, Bonk, PEPE, among others, maintaining their high activity levels on social media and contract markets. The periodic upsurge of the Meme sector usually signifies a rebound in market risk appetite, but it also comes with high liquidation risks and short-term volatility. The existence of this high-risk appetite, contrasted with the conservative allocations of mainstream institutional investors, demonstrates that the internal structure of the crypto market remains highly fragmented.

Overall, the cryptocurrency market is currently at a complex equilibrium point: Bitcoin is oscillating in a key range, awaiting policy signals to determine its direction; Ethereum is experiencing short-term funding pressure, but its long-term ecosystem remains resilient; second-tier mainstream coins and emerging narratives provide local highlights but struggle to independently drive the overall market; ETF flows and stablecoin expansion form the underlying logic supporting market resilience. Additionally, the emergence of the DAT model and the high-risk game of the Meme market together constitute the multi-layered landscape of the current market. At a key moment when macroeconomic policies are about to change course, market sentiment is poised between caution and exploration, and this period of low volatility waiting may be nurturing the next major market rally.

III. Historical Review and Current Analysis of U.S. Interest Rate Cuts

Looking back at the interaction between "interest rate cuts" and the cryptocurrency market in the past three rounds, it is clear that the same macro signal will present vastly different price paths under different fundamentals and capital structures. 2019 was a typical "expectations lead, realization pullback" year: before the fundamentals deteriorated enough to trigger easing, Bitcoin took the first step to interpret risk appetite restoration and valuation repricing. At that time, the Fed cut rates slightly three times in July, September, and October. The marginal easing of the monetary environment and the late bet on a "soft landing" led BTC to rebound throughout the first half of the year, reaching above $13,000 in June. However, once the policy was truly implemented, the reality of economic downturn and the decline in global risk appetite began to dominate asset pricing. Bitcoin retraced from its yearly high and fell to around $7,000 by the end of the year. The market ultimately corrected the optimistic expectations of liquidity and growth in a "realization—repricing" manner. Therefore, in 2019, it was not the rate cuts themselves suppressing prices but the narrative of "rate cuts = passive confirmation of economic downturn" that prevailed, leading to a sequence of rise and fall.

2020, on the other hand, was a completely different "outlier sample." The liquidity shock caused by the sudden outbreak of the pandemic led the Fed to make two emergency rate cuts in March (50 bps on March 3rd and 100 bps to zero on March 15th) and to implement a combination of unlimited QE and measures such as currency swap lines with other central banks to stabilize systemic risks. In the most severe impact around "Black Thursday" (March 12th), Bitcoin and risk assets passively deleveraged together, experiencing a sharp decline in a single day, only to quickly rebound from the "policy bottom" of fiscal and monetary stimulus. Since the triggering factor of this round was an exogenous public health event and a liquidity crisis, rather than a typical end-of-business-cycle mild slowdown, it lacks high-frequency comparability to 2025. The "first plunge, then rebound" pattern in 2020 mainly reflected technical squeezes in the USD shortage and margin chain rather than a linear response to rate cuts.

As we enter 2024, the historical path is once again being rewritten. At the macro level, the Fed initiated this round of easing in September with a direct 50 bps cut as a "kick-off move," and the dot plot still indicates further easing within the year. On the political front, the U.S. election has brought "cryptocurrency/digital asset regulation and national strategy" to the forefront. At the market level, the passive and active fund demand accumulated by the spot Bitcoin ETF after regulatory approval surged on the day of the election results. The combination of these three factors has formed a strong hedge against the "sell-the-fact scenario" after the rate cut: instead of following the "realization pullback" pattern of 2019, prices have been oscillating and strengthening under the triple support of policy anchoring, policy-friendly narratives, and instrumental buying (ETFs). The experience of 2024 illustrates that when structural incremental funds (ETFs) coexist with a strong narrative (policy-friendly/political cycle), the signaling effect of rate cuts will be significantly amplified and sustained, weakening the traditional concern channel of "rate cuts = economic downturn."

Based on the above three historical periods, September 2025 seems more like a "trigger point under constraints" than a straightforward catalyst. Firstly, in terms of rhythm, Bitcoin has been in a long consolidation phase since falling from its mid-year high, with implied volatility decreasing, futures positioning becoming more neutral, ETF net inflows slowing significantly, and in some months even approaching record levels of net outflows — indicating that the background of the "policy + narrative + passive funds resonance" seen in 2024 has not reoccurred. Secondly, from a structural perspective, there has been a divergence in fund flows between Ethereum ETFs and some mainstream chains, indicating that the positioning landscape is reassessing the balance between "Beta vs. structural opportunities." Thirdly, from a macro anchor perspective, the market exhibits strong consensus on a 25 bps rate cut in September, with marginal variables focusing more on the "forward guidance and subsequent rhythm post-landing" rather than on the cut itself, which could more significantly alter the path of duration, real interest rates, and liquidity expectations. These three factors together determine that the September rate decision is more likely to be a "position and sentiment calibration point," with its price impact depending on the current trajectory.

Based on this, we have divided the potential evolution of September 2025 into two main branches. If the price spontaneously rises before the meeting, momentum indicators strengthen and approach the upper critical range, the probability of a replay of the historical "expected trade-actual realization" pattern increases: post-rate cut, short-term long liquidations and momentum reversals in CTA/quantitative funds may overlap, triggering a rapid 3%–8% retracement, followed by a secondary direction determined by more medium-term liquidity expectations and marginal funds. The core of this branch lies in "price leading, funds following," allowing "easiness" to shift from a positive to a profit-taking signal at the moment of implementation. Conversely, if the price remains flat or mildly declines before the meeting, leveraged and speculative net longs passively unwind, and the market enters a "low position, low volatility, low expectation" state, then the 25 bps rate cut and dovish forward guidance could act as a "stabilizer" or even a "surprise source," triggering an unexpected wave-like rebound: narrowing ETF outflows—stabilizing coin net inflows—derivatives basis warming—gradual restoration of spot premium chain, with prices gradually building a more solid medium-term platform through a "bottoming-out—rising" process.

Therefore, following the three-step methodology of "historical retrospection—current characterization—scenario deduction," we have reached three conclusions for the execution layer: First, focus on "path dependence" rather than the "event itself." Pre-meeting rally and pre-meeting consolidation determine how the same news translates into two drastically different price reactions; second, tracking the marginal turning points of the "quantitative gate" is more important than judging "dovish/hawkish": ETF creations/redemptions and corporate buy-ins are observable fund variables that often have a stronger explanatory power on trends than macro perspectives; third, respect the "tiered timeframes," dividing trading into "tactical trades during policy oscillations" and "strategic layouts during Q4 liquidity trends": the former relies on positioning and risk management, while the latter relies on foresight analysis of funds and policy rhythms. History does not repeat itself simply but rhymes; the "rise first then fall" of 2019, the "crash first then V-shape" of 2020, and the "strengthening continuation post-rate cut" of 2024 together form the contextual "trigger under constraints" in September 2025 — the key lies not in "the hammer falling" but in what positions and fund gates are pressed at both ends when the hammer does fall.

In the current market environment where a Fed rate cut in September is highly anticipated, the potential path for the crypto market can be divided into three scenarios: Positive, Negative, and Uncertain. First, looking at the Positive path, the market has already almost entirely priced in a 25 basis point rate cut. This means that the rate cut itself may not be a decisive catalyst, but if accompanied by a series of positive marginal variables such as ETF fund flows returning to net inflows, some institutions increasing their positions after a price pullback, or new corporate demand for buying coins emerging, then mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum are likely to see a secondary uptrend. Research firm AInvest points out that a low interest rate environment implies a decrease in risk-free returns, which supports the valuation of risk assets, especially Bitcoin dominated by the "HODL" logic. Under this assumption, Bitcoin is expected to regain momentum and continue a pattern similar to the "policy bottom + structural fund resonance" seen in 2024. CryptoSlate's analysis suggests that if the Fed cuts rates by 75–100 basis points cumulatively by 2025, over $60 billion in ETF incremental demand could flow into the Bitcoin market. Some well-known analysts are also optimistic, with Tom Lee from Fundstrat stating that if the rate cut is combined with strong ETF inflows, Bitcoin may target $200,000 by the end of the year, while Ethereum could benefit from on-chain narrative and liquidity resonance to reach $7,000. Although these predictions seem aggressive, they highlight the potential amplification effect of policy and fund resonance on prices, especially in a low volatility and light position background where new inflows could significantly magnify price elasticity.

In summary, the impact of a Fed rate cut in September 2025 on the crypto market is not one-sided but depends on the price path, capital flows, and macro variables' interaction. If the market remains stable pre-meeting and ETF inflows recover, an unexpected rebound is likely, potentially driving Bitcoin and Ethereum to new interim highs. If there is a significant rally pre-meeting, the risk of "selling the fact" is substantial, and short-term volatility may concentrate. In the medium to long term, what truly determines the market sentiment is still ETFs' continuous absorption capacity, the revival of corporate coin buying demand, and whether the macro environment allows for sustained loose liquidity. In this constrained scenario, investors need to see the upside potential while also being wary of downside risks, strategically balancing between the "tactical game of the policy week" and the "strategic layout of the fourth-quarter liquidity trend."

Four, Opportunities and Challenges Under Fed Rate Cut Expectations

Looking ahead to the fourth quarter of 2025 and beyond, the trajectory of the crypto market will depend on three main factors: macro liquidity environment, structural fund strength, and the industry's internal innovation narrative. After the Fed rate cut in September, market attention will gradually shift to the continuity of future policy paths and whether funds will re-enter risk assets. In this context, Bitcoin and Ethereum, as pricing anchors, will play a decisive role. Within this core, the market faces both opportunities and challenges. From an opportunity perspective, the first is the return of macro liquidity and asset allocation demands. As the U.S. economy enters a slowdown phase, the bond yield curve gradually declines, investors' return expectations on risk-free assets decrease, and the risk premium of major assets rises again, providing valuation expansion space for Bitcoin as a "store of value" and a "liquidity-sensitive asset." If the Fed further cuts rates by the year-end or even early 2026, global fund reallocation needs may guide more institutional funds into the crypto market. Some investment banks and research institutions predict that in a 75–100 basis point easing path, Bitcoin ETF's annual incremental inflow could reach $600–800 billion, and this part of the funds will form a solid medium- to long-term buying pressure. For Ethereum, its role as crypto financial infrastructure is clearer, and if the regulatory environment continues to open up for spot ETH ETFs, funds may drive its price to break through a new valuation range.

Next is the continuation of corporate demand for purchasing coins and balance sheet strategies. Since 2020, cases such as MicroStrategy and Tesla have validated the feasibility of "corporate treasury allocation to crypto assets." After 2024, this model has been further institutionalized. With the enrichment of corporate financing tools, such as convertible bonds and ATM financing mechanisms, the logic of directly allocating BTC after raising funds in the capital market has been proven feasible. If macro interest rates decline in 2025, reducing the corporate financing cost may, in turn, encourage a new round of "financing-purchasing coins-stock price repricing" flywheel cycle. This structural buying pressure has been a new cornerstone of the crypto market in recent years, and whether it can continue in the future will determine the bottoming stability of the BTC price.

The third opportunity lies in the intersection of industry innovation and the capital market. The Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) model gradually took shape between 2024 and 2025. Its essence is to combine crypto asset reserves with traditional capital market financing tools, forming a "third type of institutional buying pressure" beyond ETFs and company coin purchases. The approval of SOL Strategies within the Solana ecosystem for listing on NASDAQ marks a breakthrough in the integration of the traditional capital market with on-chain assets. Once DAT product scales expand, they will bring external funds to specific chains and ecosystems, providing the market with new Alpha opportunities beyond Beta. Also worth noting is the expansion of the stablecoin ecosystem, where Tether, USDC, and even regional stablecoin projects are becoming "shadow dollars" by holding government bonds and cash management tools, providing additional liquidity buffer for the crypto market.

At the same time, challenges should not be underestimated. The first major challenge comes from the cyclical risk of "selling the fact." Even though the rate cut in September triggered a short-term rebound, the reality that the market must face is that easing often means weak growth and declining risk appetite. If the U.S. labor market continues to deteriorate, and corporate profit outlooks are revised downward, the sustainability of ETF and institutional buying pressure may be hindered. After a short-term rise in crypto assets, a replay of the "high-level pullback" of 2019 is still possible. This requires investors to maintain position and liquidity flexibility in the fourth quarter even if they are bullish, to avoid one-sided bets. The second challenge lies in the uncertainty of inflation and the U.S. dollar's path. If CPI rebounds in the coming months, core PCE remains around 3% for a long time, the Fed may have to slow down the pace of rate cuts. If the dollar stabilizes or even rebounds temporarily as a result, the logic of Bitcoin as a "hedge against USD depreciation" will be weakened. Moreover, global macro risks (such as geopolitical tensions and energy price fluctuations) may unexpectedly drive inflation higher, further limiting the space for loose liquidity. This macro-market mismatch could be a potential source of volatility in the fourth quarter. The third challenge is the uncertainty of regulatory and policy risks. The U.S. election process and candidates' attitudes toward the crypto industry will directly influence regulatory approaches. If there are regulatory approval delays, shelving of new ETF products, or new policy constraints on the crypto industry, market sentiment will quickly turn cautious. Additionally, regulatory dynamics in the European and Asian markets are equally important. The policy directions of Singapore, Hong Kong, and the EU regarding crypto asset custody, trading, and compliance may affect the flow of regional funds. If the regulatory environment tightens, institutional fund inflows will be limited, and market resilience will decrease.

Overall, the cryptocurrency market post-September 2025 stands at a complex crossroads. On one hand, ample liquidity, corporate accumulation, and new capital market products have provided the market with long-term structural opportunities for upward movement; on the other hand, economic realities, inflation, and regulatory uncertainty pose periodic challenges. For investors, the optimal strategy for the next phase is not to bet on a single path but to maintain a dynamic balance between opportunity and challenge: taking advantage of macro liquidity and structural funding for long-term positioning, while also hedging risks and managing positions to mitigate short-term volatility. In other words, the market in Q4 2025 is not simply a bull market or a bear market but a complex landscape of "coexisting opportunities and risks, volatility and trends," where only by maintaining flexibility and discipline can true excess returns be captured in this phase.

Chapter 5: Conclusion

Reviewing the three interest rate cut cycles in 2019, 2020, and 2024, Bitcoin exhibited completely different price trajectories under different macro environments and funding structures. This research report puts forward three core conclusions. First, the Fed's interest rate cut has been almost entirely priced in by the market, and the landing of a 25 basis point cut itself will not change the trend. What truly determines the direction is the pre-meeting price path and the post-cut marginal flow of funds. If Bitcoin remains range-bound or experiences a mild retreat before the rate decision meeting, releasing market position pressure, then the rate cut may become a stabilizer, even triggering an unexpected rebound; if prices have already risen significantly before the meeting, the probability of a "sell-the-fact" scenario significantly increases, and the price may face a rapid pullback in the short term. Second, ETF and corporate accumulation demand are quantitative gates for whether the mid-term trend can continue. If ETF net inflows resume positive growth and corporate recapitalization coin purchases restart, then even if there is volatility on the day of the interest rate decision, Q4 may still form a path of "bottoming—rising—breaking through." Third, macro and policy uncertainties remain potential risks.

In summary, the Fed's interest rate cut in September 2025 is not a "single switch for a bull market or a bear market" but rather a trigger point for the market under complex conditions. For investors, the key is to dynamically adjust their cognitive framework: not to view the rate cut as an automatic bullish signal, nor to be overly fearful of the risk of "selling the fact," but to maintain a balance between opportunity and challenge, leveraging the resonance of macro policies and structural funding for long-term positioning, while managing short-term risks through flexible positions and hedging tools. Only in this way can one protect the bottom line during the volatility cycle in Q4 2025 and seize potential excess returns.

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