Original Author: RainyNap, Crypto KOL

1. Stablecoin

In my opinion, the dominant narrative in the next three to five years will likely be "adoption," and the only type of crypto application that can quickly achieve this level of "adoption" is stablecoins. Top-tier applications like Hyperliquid and Pump.fun are still limited to the native adoption within the crypto space itself. To truly achieve widespread adoption, a long road lies ahead.

In summary, stablecoins will be the core metagame of the future crypto market.

To break it down, the hype around stablecoins mainly revolves around two points: 1) yield farming; 2) token price speculation on stablecoin infrastructure.

1. Yield Farming

Yield farming, with its low risk and attractive returns, is widely popular in the market. Recent projects like Spark, Plasma, Zerobase are representative of this trend, as their pre-TGE yield farming activities offered very high APY.

The underlying logic is as follows:

1. Project teams need to show TVL data before TGE and engage in exchange activities to boost the token valuation for an exit post-TGE;

2. Alternatively, project teams need to incentivize the circulation of their stablecoin through economic incentives (usually in the form of tokens) to ultimately drive stablecoin adoption.

Yield farming is a direction I recommend exploring, but as the market evolves, future stablecoin deposits will likely become more complex and less rewarding. It is best to deposit in projects collaborating with major exchanges.

2. Token Price Speculation on Stablecoin Infrastructure

In my view, participating in price speculation on these tokens carries extremely high risk and is currently not in a positive EV stage. The main reason is as I mentioned in the first article, "The emergence of speculation is driven by demand (even if that demand is only pseudo or unsustainable) or Ponzi schemes (high returns with high capital efficiency, stemming from greed)" & "Demand and Ponzi interact with each other, yet are constrained by cycles".

Currently, the token speculation in this sector is still predominantly in the stage endorsed by backgrounds, investment institutions, and exchanges, where yield farming is the optimal solution rather than token purchase. It is better to wait until demand emerges, or Ponzi schemes are in play, before considering token speculation.

2. Super-App and Buyback

A super-app basically involves the two apps mentioned above, Hyperliquid and http://Pump.fun. The key to hype these super-apps lies in the "buyback" strategy.

A super-app implies that it has already achieved a very good PMF (Product-Market Fit), which means these super-apps can capture sustained fee cash flow in the medium to long term.

Using a product fee "buyback" can provide sufficient buy-side liquidity during the product's growth phase, driving the token's price up. Token price appreciation is the best advertisement for the product. This is actually a kind of intangible flywheel.

Furthermore, the buyback can balance the different positions represented by token holders and product users, tying product users to the token, increasing token holder stickiness, reducing speculation, and increasing investment behavior.

Another point worth mentioning is that http://Pump.fun is transitioning from the Launchpad and DEX narrative to live streaming, in other words, streaming narrative. I think @TimDraper is a signal of the $PUMP trend reversal (and alon is also starting ICM). If the crypto market enters a recovery phase in the near future, the price performance of $PUMP is worth looking forward to.

As for $HYPE, I think we still need to wait for the unlocking event to pass before it can emerge, and I have a positive long-term view.

3. ICO & ICM

At the current stage, there is essentially no big difference between ICO and ICM.

ICO is a straightforward way to raise funds, while ICM (Internet Capital Market) tells a big story to package the act of "raising funds."

Why tell a bigger story? It's because only a big and good story can attract more participants, creating a bigger bubble. The better the narrative, the more cabbage to be cut.

This is the story Solana currently wants to tell. At the same time, this is also being done in conjunction with the launch of the $SOL ETF—there has to be a reason for Tradefi to buy $SOL, right?

Under this narrative of ICM, I'm not very optimistic about Launchcoin, as the hodler is forever hodling.

@MetaDAOProject might be better, having enough interaction with the Solana team, a strong background, and the market willing to buy into its projects (mainly to make money). Another reason for optimism is that $META has not yet been listed on a CEX.

Overall, looking at it, the Solana ecosystem is currently in a recovery phase, with the Foundation having made all the necessary arrangements, and it's almost time to make a move. This move will likely happen around the time of the ETF launch.

The short-term forecast is roughly like this (as long as there are no major market hiccups in the short term), and the mid- to long-term development will still depend on the overall market trend.

IV. Market Prediction and Robot Narrative (Transmission of Web2 Narrative)

Market prediction and robots are not native narratives of the crypto market; the market is simply following the narrative of the Web2 world. I won't go into too much detail here, as many people have already hyped up the market prediction and robot narratives. Personally, I am optimistic about the market prediction narrative but not about its long-term hype. As for the robot narrative, I think it's just average.

The hype around market prediction is still mainly led by VCs, and it's unlikely to see very Ponzi-like schemes, so I think the market might get excited for a while and then move on. Projects like Limitless and the BSC prediction market are worth participating in, but not suitable for a long-term perspective. The hype around market prediction might focus on Q4. When Polymarket releases its token/IPO, there will be another wave of hype.

Crypto itself is good at asset speculation, not creating robots. The robot narrative basically boils down to two ideas:

1. Projects that provide training assistance (data, computing power) for Web2 robot companies, such as $SAPIEN, @gaib_ai;

2. Projects that provide software services for robots, such as @openmind_agi. Both of these types can be briefly discussed, and the opportunity can be evaluated during TGE.

The hype coming from the transmission of the Web2 narrative usually has a very short shelf life (referring to the overall track's explosion), and once the excitement is over, it's over (about a month?). The Ponzi/asset issuance narrative native to crypto can last longer.

Narratives like market prediction and robots have been repeatedly mentioned and favored by Crypto Twitter, indicating that after $TRUMP, the crypto market has not yet seen a well-established new narrative that can be massively hyped. The market is desperately craving the hype around new narratives and assets.

5. Synthetic Narratives

Synthetic Narratives are similar to BSC meme hype, characterized by high wealth effect but also by significant uncertainty and risk. The market dynamics are very fast-paced, making it ideal for junior players to enter and perform.

Personally, I prefer the kind of native meme that is unrelated to specific individuals but embodies the spirit of the internet, such as Haikimi. Memecoins related to specific individuals will always be the first to hype because of the concentrated market attention. However, over time, market attention will gradually shift away from these specific individual-related memecoins to memes with a broader audience.

In my opinion, Perp DEX can also be considered a half-synthetic narrative. From my observation, the timing of the fomo for Lighter and other Perp DEX projects is similar to Aster's rise. Starting from Hyperliquid, PerpDEX gradually began to gain attention, Aster rose, followed by fierce competition, and the eventual outcome will likely be the overthrow of the dominance of many schools of thought. Despite the hype, do not have faith in some copycat Perp DEX. I personally believe that the one with the opportunity to emerge as the ultimate winner will be Hyperliquid.

The development of synthetic narratives tests the "human" element. If the individual is extraordinary, the narrative will be extraordinary, as seen in the recent BSC wave. $ZEC's rise is attributed to @naval's statement, "Bitcoin is insurance against fiat. ZCash is insurance against Bitcoin" (as well as the underlying CX; even BTC Maximalists are willing to buy).

For this type of narrative, you need to be early enough and have a strong player-versus-player (PVP) mindset to have the opportunity to gain significant profits.

These are just some thoughts, Good Night.

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