Bitunix Analyst: WTO Warns of 72% Plunge in Trade Growth, AI Emerges as Sole Bright Spot, Global Recession Liquidity Risk Resurfaces

BlockBeats News, October 8th, the latest report from the World Trade Organization (WTO) shows that the global merchandise trade growth rate will plummet from this year's 2.4% to 0.5% in 2026, a staggering 72% decrease. The report points out that the delayed impact of Trump's new round of high tariffs, the end of inventory cycles, and the global economic slowdown may trigger a "cliff-like" decline in global trade next year. AI-related products have become the sole supporting force, with semiconductor and server export volumes growing by over 20% annually, contributing to nearly half of global trade growth.

At the macro level, as manufacturing declines and business confidence weakens, the market may reassess the Fed's loose policy path, while escalating trade tensions will also become a new variable in inflation. In the short term, US stocks and emerging markets may face pressure from fund reallocation, with AI themes being among the few resilient sectors.

Regarding the crypto market, BTC's short-term liquidity is mainly concentrated in the $119,000 to $126,000 range, and if risk assets experience volatility, BTC may oscillate in that range seeking direction.

Bitunix Analyst:

The structural weakness of global trade reveals the fragile reality of the post-globalization era – growth is no longer balanced but is dominated by a "dual-speed economy" driven by technological innovation and liquidity. Although the AI frenzy has extended its lifespan, trade rifts and policy frictions have already hinted at the repricing of medium- to long-term risks. The core issue in future markets is not whether growth can be sustained, but rather who can take control of the dominant narrative in an era of liquidity contraction.