Goldman Sachs analysts: Maintain the view that the Fed will cut interest rates for the first time in July

BlockBeats news, May 23, Federal Reserve Board member Waller had a busy day on Tuesday. Before the market opened, he expressed doubts about the July rate cut, saying he needed to see "a few months of good inflation data" before considering a rate cut. This is not good news for those who still hold out hope for a July rate cut.

Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius and his team wrote: "There are only two months of inflation data from now to the July meeting, and the threshold of 'a few months of data' suggests that the threshold for inflation alone to drive a rate cut is quite high."

But analysts have not changed their basic view that the first rate cut will be in July, with a total of two rate cuts in 2024. "First, Waller's views may not represent the entire FOMC," they wrote. "In addition, labor market data has slowed in recent months, and further softening in the coming months, coupled with a modest improvement in inflation data, should convince the FOMC to start policy normalization earlier than Waller's schedule." (Jinshi)