QCP: Macro Uncertainty on the Rise, But Structural Bullish Signals in Crypto Market Persist

BlockBeats News, May 19th, QCP released its daily market observation, stating that against the background of pressure on the US stock market, the Federal Reserve continuing to maintain a cautious stance, and the highlighting of Washington's fiscal fragility by US credit rating, Trump also seemed to feel the pressure.

However, Bitcoin showed relatively strong resilience, briefly touching $107,000 on Sunday. This initial uptrend was likely triggered by Metaplanet's announcement of a $104 million Bitcoin purchase, while Strategy Inc also followed suit with its increase in holdings. However, this uptrend did not last, as the BTC perpetual contract funding rate surged, prompting traders to close their positions for profits, leading to the liquidation of some high-leverage long positions.

Although BTC has retraced some of its gains during the Asian session, it remains within the recent consolidation range overall, supported by warming institutional demand. Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to attract inflows, demonstrating strong fundamental support.

Of particular note is that even amidst Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating and a stock market sentiment leaning towards "risk-off," BTC was still able to see gains over the weekend, further strengthening its positioning as a "store of value" tool. This narrative is gaining more consensus and is expected to become a long-term bullish catalyst.

Meanwhile, the narrative of the entire crypto market is also heating up. Coinbase (COIN) is set to officially join the S&P 500 index tonight, which not only carries symbolic significance but also represents an increase in mainstream acceptance and institutional credibility. This news comes at an opportune time, especially after its strategic acquisition of Deribit.

The volatility market also reflects the market's optimistic sentiment. Despite the consolidation of spot prices and lingering macro uncertainty, the implied volatility of crypto assets remains relatively high. It is worth noting that the call skew structure of Bitcoin options remains stable across most tenors, implying that the market overall still maintains a structurally bullish expectation.