Original Title: Arthur Hayes on Bitcoin's route to $200,000, holding gold and why 'hated' Ethereum is due for a comeback

Original Source: Fortune

Original Translation: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily

Arthur Hayes is a key figure in the early days of Bitcoin, having co-founded the offshore exchange platform BitMEX in 2014, which later faced legal issues for violating U.S. regulatory requirements. Recently, Hayes acknowledged the failure to establish sufficient anti-money laundering controls, received probation, and paid fines. However, earlier this year, he was granted a full pardon by Trump.

Currently, Hayes is focused on managing the family office fund Maelstrom and remains a highly influential figure in the cryptocurrency space. Fortune's contributing author Anna Tutova interviewed him during Token-2049 in Dubai, where Hayes shared his views on the current market — including predicting that BTC could reach $200,000 in the short term and potentially surpass $1 million by 2028.

In the interview, Hayes also analyzed the ETH and altcoin markets and explained his decision to allocate 20% to gold assets. Below is the full interview, condensed and edited for brevity.

Q1: About the Real U.S. Deficit

Anna: You referred to the recent U.S. Treasury borrowing operations as 'sleight of hand.' Why?

Arthur Hayes: The Treasury has been depleting its Treasury General Account (TGA) and using 'extraordinary measures' (underfunded government programs) to circumvent the borrowing limit, causing the TGA to drop from $750 billion to $450 billion this quarter. This means that $300 billion of spending was not achieved through additional debt issuance, significantly exceeding the official borrowing figures. It's puzzling because we are currently in a debt ceiling period, where theoretically the U.S. government cannot net increase borrowing, yet they maintain expenditures without breaching the limit through various accounting maneuvers. From January to March 2025, the Treasury's borrowing was 22% higher than the same period last year, indicating that the deficit is actually widening.

Q2: About Market Liquidity

Anna: What does this mean for Bitcoin?

Arthur Hayes: I believe that the actual borrowing needs of the U.S. government are much greater than what is shown in public data. Therefore, Treasury Secretary Bessent will have to issue more debt and will need to leverage this debt through the banking system to the max. The end result is further global USD liquidity sloshing around as the U.S. government is ramping up spending. In short, this is what repos are all about, and why I think they increase market liquidity. Based on this, I posit that Bitcoin bottomed on April 9th, and with the government continuing to borrow and Bessent ensuring cheap financing, Bitcoin's price will continue its rally.

Q3: About Altseason

Anna: So, what price level does Bitcoin need to reach to kick off altcoin season? What are the key factors driving the start of altseason?

Arthur Hayes: I believe Bitcoin needs to break above $110,000 and sustain a significant rally to the $150,000 - $200,000 range. I expect this to occur in the summer or early in the third quarter of this year, after which funds will begin to rotate into various altcoins.

Q4: About Bull Market Expectations

Anna: Do you think the upcoming altcoin season will see a crazy supercycle surge like in 2021? Or will it only experience a minor rebound?

Arthur Hayes: It is unlikely to see a repeat of the frenzy in 2021 where all coins surged 100x. The market will see new narrative hotspots, and some coins may experience crazy rallies, but there's a reason why those "dinosaur coins" in your portfolio haven't moved up. Many projects are overvalued, have low circulation, lack real users and revenue, relying solely on exchange listings for hype. With prices now down by 95%, I don't think they will shine in the next cycle.

Q5: About Personal Return Expectations

Anna: What is your expected return on investment in this cycle? What are the usual target price and return rates set?

Arthur Hayes: At the very least, you need to outperform Bitcoin's gains. If we decide to allocate capital, the targeted assets must outpace Bitcoin's ROI.

Q6: About Trump

Anna: What are your expectations for Trump's cryptocurrency policy?

Arthur Hayes: His team is likely to introduce cryptocurrency-friendly policies, but that doesn't mean the specific projects you hold will definitely appreciate, nor does it mean that the policy will progress on your expected timeline. The current market expectations are just too high, with some even believing that cryptocurrency policy will be Trump's top priority. But don't forget that Trump is a politician, and he has more pressing priorities to deal with. Everyone needs to be patient.

Q7: About Gold

Anna: In the context of escalating market uncertainty, we have seen a sharp rise in gold. Have you allocated to gold assets, or are you fully focused on cryptocurrency?

Arthur Hayes: I hold gold long term, with physical gold bars stored in a safe, and also hold a significant amount of gold mining stocks—given the surge in gold prices, these positions are still undervalued. I believe gold still has a lot of upside potential, as central banks around the world continue to increase their holdings. More importantly, I expect the US to substantially revalue its gold reserve, diluting debt through devaluing the US dollar against gold. By the end of this bull market, the price of gold could reach $10,000 to $20,000. Gold accounts for about 20% of my personal investment portfolio.

Q8: ETH vs SOL

Anna: That's quite a high allocation! There is currently much debate in the market about ETH and SOL, which one do you prefer?

Arthur Hayes: I believe ETH has more upside potential, although it is currently under scrutiny—everyone thinks it has no merit, the development team makes repeated mistakes, but the reality is that it still holds the highest Total Value Locked (TVL) on-chain, has the largest developer community, and is the most secure PoS blockchain. Yes, despite its lackluster price performance from 2020 to date. SOL has clearly performed well, but if I were to allocate a new round with fiat currency now, I think in the next 18-24 months of the bull market, ETH's price surge may surpass SOL.

Q9: About $1 Million BTC

Anna: You previously predicted that Bitcoin would reach $1 million. When do you think this target will be achieved?

Arthur Hayes: I believe that Bitcoin will reach $1 million by the end of 2028, which is before the end of President Trump's term.

Q10: Annual Trend Expectation

Anna: How do you anticipate the specific trend of the crypto market this year?

Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin's dominance will continue to rise, potentially approaching $200,000 in this current bull run. Following that, the altcoin season will arrive, and we will witness some interesting phenomena. By the end of the year, Bitcoin's target price is approximately $250,000.

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