Analysis: BTC and US Treasury Yields Decouple Abnormally, Ushering in a Structural Shift in Its Macro-Economic Role

BlockBeats reported on June 15 that Cryptoquant analyst Darkfost released a market analysis indicating that macroeconomic factors have become the dominant narrative in today’s cryptocurrency market. As a result, key indicators such as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and U.S. Treasury yields are now closely monitored by investors, as they reflect institutional sentiment and the overall state of global liquidity. When both the DXY and bond yields rise simultaneously, capital tends to flow out of risk assets. In such an environment, Bitcoin typically experiences a pullback. Historically, bear markets in cryptocurrencies often coincide with strong upward trends in yields and the DXY.

Conversely, when the DXY and yields lose momentum, investors’ risk appetite shifts toward risk assets. These periods are usually associated with monetary easing or expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, thereby fueling bullish sentiment in the crypto market. What is particularly noteworthy in the current cycle is the unusual decoupling between Bitcoin and bond yields. Despite yields reaching one of the highest levels in Bitcoin’s history, Bitcoin has continued its upward trend, often accelerating during DXY declines. This anomaly suggests a structural shift in Bitcoin’s role within the macroeconomic landscape, with Bitcoin increasingly being viewed as a store of value. This new narrative could potentially redefine how Bitcoin reacts to traditional macroeconomic forces.