Berenberg assigns Circle (CRCL) an "Outperform" rating with a price target of $230

BlockBeats News, June 30th, according to The Block's report, analysts from research and brokerage firm Bernstein have initiated coverage of stablecoin issuer Circle, giving it an "Outperform" rating with a target price set at $230.

"Circle is building a market-leading digital dollar stablecoin network, with regulatory advantages, liquidity primacy, and top-tier channel partnerships," the team led by analyst Gautam Chhugani stated in a client report on Monday. "We believe CRCL is a must-have investment target for investors positioning for the next decade of internet-scale financial new infrastructure."

The analysts expect stablecoins to upgrade from the crypto market payment rail to the entire internet's payment infrastructure, with the total supply increasing 16-fold from the current $244 billion to $40 trillion over the next decade. This growth will stem from the "transformative development" of crypto and tokenized capital markets, payment systems, and stablecoin-native financial services.

Chhugani emphasized that with the recent passage of the "GENIUS Act" by the U.S. Senate, USDC will become the largest regulated stablecoin under this act, and this "regulatory primacy advantage" will make it the preferred partner for internet platforms (not limited to trading platforms). Its $61.4 billion liquidity reserve is difficult to replicate by newcomers lacking a crypto channel flywheel, with most competitors struggling with the "cold start" problem.

However, Bernstein predicts that Circle will only be able to capture a 30% share of this potential $40 trillion market—increasing by just 5 percentage points from its current 25% market share. Currently, Tether (USDT) still dominates with a 65% market share, holding $1.585 trillion in supply. As a foreign issuer, Tether may need to establish a U.S. subsidiary to comply with new regulatory requirements.

Chhugani pointed out that Circle's stock price currently corresponds to 56 times adjusted EBITDA for 2026 and 28 times for 2027, reflecting investors' strong demand for a pure-play stablecoin target. Bernstein has given a $230 valuation using a ten-year discounted cash flow model, equivalent to approximately 35 times adjusted EBITDA for 2027. The firm expects a 47% compound annual growth rate in revenue and a 71% growth rate in EBITDA from 2024 to 2027, with USDC's adoption offsetting income pressure from interest rates—advising to seize buying opportunities during market pullbacks.