Opinion: Bitcoin to Reach $200,000 by Year-End, Whales and ETF to Drive Bull Market Resurgence

BlockBeats News, October 3rd, according to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin's on-chain demand is growing at a monthly rate of about 62,000 coins, a backdrop similar to the fourth quarters of 2020, 2021, and 2024, when prices saw significant rallies. Historically, sustained demand growth has often fueled price increases.

This round of expansion is mainly driven by whales and ETFs. The balances of large holders are growing at an annualized rate of 331,000 bitcoins, surpassing the 255,000 coins in 2024 Q4, the 238,000 coins at the beginning of 2020 Q4, and sharply contrasting with the reduction of 197,000 coins during the market weakness in 2021.

ETFs may provide additional momentum. In 2024 Q4, these products collectively bought 213,000 bitcoins, with holdings growing by 71%, and further accumulation is expected by the end of this year. However, for the demand to truly translate into a breakthrough, price momentum remains crucial. On-chain valuation shows that traders' "realized price" at $116,000 is a key threshold.

Once the price surpasses this level, it signifies the market re-entering the "bull market" phase of the cyclical range indicator and may open up a valuation range of $160,000 to $200,000 in the fourth quarter.