QCP: The current state of the US economy is closer to late cycle than to a recessionary period. This week's data will determine Bitcoin's future trajectory.

BlockBeats News, November 19th, QCP released its daily market observation, stating that this week, Bitcoin continued to fall, once dropping below the key $90,000 mark. The reason was that the market tightened its expectations for interest rate hikes and continued ETF outflows suppressed market sentiment. Thin liquidity further amplified this round of decline, demonstrating that Bitcoin is becoming increasingly sensitive to macroeconomic changes.

This pullback occurred against the backdrop of the rapidly repricing expectations of the Federal Reserve—from a nearly certain December rate cut to roughly balanced probabilities. This pressure was felt by assets sensitive to interest rates like Bitcoin, while the stock market remained relatively stable due to robust corporate earnings reports, especially from hyperscalers reporting strong profits and record AI-driven capital expenditures.

With the reopening of the US government, official data has been gradually released, providing the market with necessary insights into the economic fundamentals' momentum. This week, the market is highly focused on labor market data and the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI), which now includes the latest job vacancy data. This information will help determine whether labor tightness or inflation will drive the Federal Reserve's 2026 policy response.

Beneath the surface, the US economy continues to exhibit K-shaped differentiation: high-income household spending remains resilient, while pressure mounts on low-income groups. Federal Reserve Chair Powell reiterated a cautious stance, stating that a December rate cut is "not a certainty." Overall, current economic conditions are closer to late-cycle rather than recessionary. Despite ongoing risks from fiscal constraints and labor market differentials, the resilience of household balance sheets and robustness of corporate capital expenditures provide a cushion against downward pressures. This week's data will determine whether Bitcoin's pullback is a temporary position adjustment or the beginning of a broader decline in risk appetite.