Original title: "Independent world, breeze and snow｜WTR 4.08"

Original source: WTR Research Institute

Review of this week

From April 1 to April 8 this week, the highest price of Bingtang Orange was around $71288 and the lowest price was close to $64493, with a fluctuation range of about 9.45%. Observing the chip distribution map, there are a large number of chips traded around 66000, which will have a certain support or pressure.

• Analysis:

1. 59000-63000 is about 600,000 pieces;

2. 64000-68000 is about 990,000 pieces;

• The probability of not falling below 57000~61000 in the short term is 82%;

• The probability of not rising above 71000～74000 in the short term is 53%.

Important news

Economic news

1. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and BTC price showed a significant negative correlation, reaching -90.84%, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose sharply by 1% to 4.4%;

2. The U.S. dollar index broke through 105 for the first time since November 2023, and BTC fell by 5%.

3. Bank of America said that even if the Fed cuts interest rates after the first quarter of 2024, it will still maintain its forecast of a gold price of $2,400 per ounce.

Crypto Ecological News

1. Stefan von Haenisch, director of OSL SG Pte, said that the prospect of the Fed reducing interest rate cuts is having an impact on cryptocurrencies. With the arrival of this week, cryptocurrencies have been sold off, and no industry is unaffected, especially those tokens whose prices have exceeded BTC in the past six months.

2. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) submitted a revised notice for Grayscale Spot ETHETF (Conversion), submitting Amendment No. 1 on the proposed changes to the listing and trading rules of Grayscale ETH Trust Fund shares.

3. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is soliciting public comments on Grayscale, Bitwise and Fidelity Spot ETH ETFs.

4. The SEC stated in the document on Bitwise: The Commission is issuing this notice to solicit comments from interested persons on the proposed rule changes (as modified by Amendment No. 1), and comments must be submitted within 21 days.

5. Coinbase Research Report stated that the cryptocurrency market has developed well in the second quarter, most of the adverse factors have become a thing of the past, and the positive factors may "only become more apparent from the second half of April."

6. Last week, the spot BTC ETF purchased $1.6 billion of BTC, with an average daily purchase of more than $406 million. After deducting the outflow of Grayscale GBTC, the net inflow last week was $510 million. In March, the trading volume of BTC spot ETF reached $111 billion, three times that of $42.2 billion in February.

Long-term insight: used to observe our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state

Medium-term exploration: used to analyze what stage we are in, how long will it last in this stage, and what situation we will face

Short-term observation: used to analyze short-term market conditions; and the possibility of some directions and certain events under certain conditions

Long-term insight

• Net position relative to whale exchanges

• Net position of exchanges

Is the current stage of the market close to the top?

This is the current theme of this week; In view of this theme, we can find it from the rigidity of the use of funds itself, that is, the core flow of funds.

（The following figure shows the net position of whale exchanges）

The data of whales shows that they are still hoarding more funds and crypto assets.

The overall selling pressure has also begun to decrease slowly, and the market has returned to equilibrium. The expectations for the halving in April have been adjusted, and the sell-off has been understood in advance. This month may be an important stage for reaching equilibrium.

（The following figure shows the net position of exchanges）

Every time there is a large amount of selling pressure, or when the market is about to peak, there will be a large amount of net position selling.

Fortunately, there is not much inflow into the exchange at this stage.

On the contrary, more investors or institutions have taken chips from the exchange to their wallets. This is a huge accumulation, and the market is still in the stage of buying accumulation.

The chips on the exchange are decreasing, which is good news. If this purchasing power can continue, the halving may continue to boost prices.

Medium-term exploration

• Total impact volume

• Exchange trend net position

• Network sentiment positivity

• Accumulation trend points

（Figure below: Total impact volume）

After a period of adjustment and repair, the market has now reached the lower point of staged selling pressure.

As the total impact volume continues to converge, the pressure on the market is also constantly easing.

It may be a time of low risk in the near future. Of course, dynamic observation is needed.

（Figure below: Exchange trend net position）

The overall exchange net position presents a trend structure of outflow accumulation.

At the same time, combined with the total impact volume, if there is no further selling pressure, the market may gradually enter a stage with less pressure. By then, a better trend may be brewing.

（Figure below Network sentiment positivity）

Although the overall selling pressure has been reduced, the trading sentiment is still in the state of adjustment and repair, and no right signal or tendency has been shown. The overall network sentiment may still need to be adjusted and repaired, and the market needs to be sorted out for a period of time.

（Figure below Accumulation trend points）

The current stage of accumulation is weak, and the enthusiasm for participating in the current market may be relatively cautious.

From the status of each address, it can be seen that only addresses with>10k are slowly accumulating chips, but the pace is also relatively cautious.

At the same time, this model also reflects that the enthusiasm for participation in the past month is relatively cautious.

Short-term observation

• Derivatives risk factor

• Option intention transaction ratio

• Derivatives trading volume

• Option implied volatility

• Profit and loss transfer volume

• New addresses and active addresses

• Bingtangcheng Exchange net position

• Yitai Exchange net position

• High-weight selling pressure

• Global purchasing power status

• Stablecoin exchange net position

• Off-chain exchange data

Derivatives rating: The risk factor is in the danger zone, and the risk of derivatives is relatively high.

(The following figure shows the risk factor of derivatives)

The market performance is basically in line with last week's expectations, with long and short liquidations due to shock changes. The current risk factor is in the danger zone, but the liquidation volume of derivatives is not large. This week, the market is expected to still see a two-way liquidation of derivatives.

(The following figure shows the option intention transaction ratio)

Both the put ratio and option trading volume have dropped significantly.

（Figure below: Derivatives Volume）

Last week, we mentioned that the volume was already at a low level, indicating that it was close to another change. Now, after a brief rise in the market, it has fallen back to a low level.

（Figure below: Option Implied Volatility）

Implied volatility has increased slightly in the short term.

Sentiment Rating: Neutral

（Figure below: Profit and Loss Transfer）

Short-term holder costs have come to around 59k. This week, short-term holder costs have only risen slightly, while positive and panic sentiment has continued to decrease, which leaves enough room for a change in the market.

（Newly added addresses and active addresses in the figure below）

Newly added and active addresses are at the median level.

Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Overall, it is in a state of large outflow accumulation, and the selling pressure is low.

（The figure below is the net position of Bingtangcheng Exchange）

Big cake is currently in a state of large outflow accumulation, and the net position in the exchange continues to decline.

（The figure below is the net position of Etai Exchange）

The second cake is also in a state of outflow accumulation.

（Figure below: High-weight selling pressure）

No high-weight selling pressure.

Purchasing power rating: Compared with last week, global purchasing power and stablecoin purchasing power have rebounded moderately.

（Figure below: Global purchasing power status）

Currently, except for the purchasing power of the Americas, the purchasing power of Asia and Europe is in a state of continuous decline.

（Figure below: USDT exchange net position）

Compared with last week, the overall net position of USDT has increased moderately.

Off-chain transaction data rating: Willing to buy at 63,000; willing to sell at 72,000.

（The figure below is the Coinbase off-chain data）

Willing to buy at prices around 60,000 and 62,000; Willing to sell at prices around 72,000, 73,000, 74,000, and 75,000.

（The figure below is the Binance off-chain data）

Willing to buy at prices around 60,000 and 62,000; Willing to sell at prices around 72,000 and 73,000.

(Bitfinex off-chain data in the figure below)

There is a willingness to buy at prices around 60000, 63000;

There is a willingness to sell at prices around 72000, 74000.

Summary of this week:

Summary of news:

From a macro perspective, BTC is negatively correlated with US Treasuries, BTC is negatively correlated with the US dollar, BTC is a risky asset, and the latter two are "safe haven assets". During the interest rate hike period, the latter two rose sharply, and BTC fell sharply.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose from 2% in 2022 to 5% in October 2023 (BTC fell), fell to 3.8% in December (BTC rose), and recently rebounded to 4.4% (BTC fell).

Grasp the turning point of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, you can grasp the direction of the entire trend of crypto.

At present, the market generally believes that as interest rates fall this year, U.S. Treasury yields will continue to fall.

Then it stands to reason that the funds that can be allocated to crypto by the macro economy will not decrease, or even increase, and the overall downside risk of crypto will be reduced accordingly, or even resume its upward momentum.

Of course on the other hand:

The current situation is very similar to when Satoshi Nakamoto created crypto. At that time, Satoshi Nakamoto wrote that "the British Chancellor of the Exchequer is on the verge of implementing a second round of bank aid."

If the function of the big cake is lost during the release cycle, because it does not match its own positioning, then the significance of the existence of the big cake, and the overall details of the adjustments made by the major mainstream participants in the world for the overall encryption will also change, or this is a major test.

Long-term insights on the chain:

1. The selling pressure of the whales is still declining, and April may be the stage when the market enters a balanced stage;

2. From the overall long-term net position, participants are still buying and accumulating. In terms of the buying trend, the chips after halving have limited effect on the market's rise.

• Market tone:

Slowly move from selling pressure to a balanced and accumulated stage.

On-chain mid-term exploration:

1. Recent pressure is relatively light;

2. The trend of net positions on exchanges shows that there is still outflow accumulation;

3. The overall trading sentiment is still recovering;

4. Participants in the past month are relatively cautious.

• Market tone:

Cautious

The current pressure is relatively light, and the enthusiasm for participation in the past month is also relatively cautious. It may be necessary to gradually adjust and enter the next stage of the market.

On-chain short-term observation:

1. The risk factor is in the dangerous area and the risk is relatively high.

2. The number of newly added active addresses is relatively at the median level.

3. Market sentiment status rating: neutral.

4. The net position of the exchange as a whole shows a large amount of outflow accumulation, and the selling pressure is low.

5. Compared with last week, global purchasing power and stablecoin purchasing power have rebounded moderately.

6. Off-chain transaction data shows that there is a willingness to buy at the price of 63,000 and a willingness to sell at the price of 72,000.

7. The probability of not falling below 57,000~61,000 in the short term is 82%; the probability of not rising below 71,000~74,000 in the short term is 53%.

• Market tone:

The overall market sentiment is neutral, and the growth rate of short-term holder costs has declined, currently around 59K. Derivative liquidation is expected to occur this week, and the probability of extreme downward market is still low.

Risk warning: The above are market discussions and explorations, and do not have directional opinions on investment; please be cautious and prevent market black swan risks.

This article comes from a contribution and does not represent the views of BlockBeats.

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