BTC to Enter "Ten Thousand Steps" Price Surge? Next Target is $160,000

Original Title: "Analyst Interprets BTC's 'Stair-Step' Price Pattern, Is $160,000 Within Reach?"

Original Source: BitpushNews

On Monday, the cryptocurrency market continued a slight rebound, with Bitcoin briefly reaching a daily high of $107,068 before falling back to around $102,105. According to CoinMarketCap data, at the time of writing, the Bitcoin trading price is $105,850, with a less than 1% fluctuation over 24 hours and a 40% increase in 24-hour trading volume to $64.63 billion.

“Ten-Thousand Dollar Stair-Step” Pattern

Some market observers have pointed out that Bitcoin has exhibited an interesting "stair-step" pattern during its recent price increase.

Analyst Trader Tardigrade found that the price of BTC has shown a phased pattern of increase, with each upward wave approximately $10,000, followed by a brief pause after each rise. He mentioned the trend from $75,000 to $85,000, then to $95,000, and most recently to $105,000. After each jump, there is usually a seven to ten day period of relatively calm sideways consolidation.

For traders, this pattern provides predictable opportunities to take profits or establish new positions. These consolidations can serve as new support levels, indicating buyers' willingness to enter the market again. If this pattern continues, the next logical target could be $115,000, which is about 11% higher than the current price.

Tardigrade believes the significance of the $100,000 psychological level is self-evident. This round number not only serves as a crucial psychological barrier but also forms a strong technical support. It is worth noting that following an 11% surge in early May, Bitcoin maintained a slow 0.5% rise last week, exhibiting a "slow bull" feature that is healthier and more likely to be sustained than sharp fluctuations.

$160,000 Target

Looking ahead, chart analyst CryptoCon has provided a more optimistic outlook through the "Golden Ratio Multiplier" model.

CryptoCon states that the Golden Ratio Multiplier model was one of the few technical indicators that accurately predicted the Bitcoin cycle top in April 2021.

According to this model analysis, by March 2024, the market had already reached the mid-cycle top of this cycle, indicating that the market is likely to retest the top. Currently, the model shows the fifth target level pointing to $160,000 and continuing to rise, a trend that is quite similar to the 2015-2017 bull market cycle — the current stage is equivalent to April 2017, the eve of the bull market's main uptrend. Historical experience shows that this slow accumulation phase often heralds a possible subsequent accelerated uptrend.

It is worth noting that while this technical analysis has a certain reference value, the $160,000 target is based on the calculation results of a specific model, and the actual trend may be influenced by various factors. For ordinary investors, understanding this cyclical feature helps grasp the market rhythm, but more importantly, proper risk management is essential.

Willy Woo: BTC Compound Annual Growth Rate Will Stabilize at 8%

Analyst Willy Woo offers another perspective. He believes that Bitcoin has transitioned from a highly volatile, explosively growing asset to a more mature financial instrument. While many still view Bitcoin as a continuously soaring "magical unicorn," Woo points out that the era of over 100% annual growth rates seen in 2017 is largely over. He marks 2020 as a key turning point when Bitcoin achieved "institutionalization" as companies and sovereign entities began accumulating it.

With more institutional capital entering, Bitcoin's Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) naturally decreased from triple digits to around 30%-40% and continues to trend towards moderation. Woo attributes this to Bitcoin's increasing maturity and its growing role as a capital store. He emphasizes Bitcoin's position as a global financial asset, stating that it "will continue to absorb capital until reaching equilibrium."

Looking further into the future, Woo predicts that Bitcoin's Compound Annual Growth Rate will eventually stabilize at a level consistent with broader economic trends, potentially around 8% per year (combining 5% long-term currency expansion and 3% GDP growth). Although this growth rate may seem insignificant compared to the early days, he remains confident in its long-term performance and concludes, "So enjoy the journey for maybe another 15-20 years, for almost no publicly investable product can match Bitcoin's performance in the long run, even as Bitcoin's Compound Annual Growth Rate continues to decline."

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