Driven by multiple factors such as regulatory breakthroughs, structural fund inflows, and market confidence restoration, Bitcoin is once again approaching its all-time high. With the "GENIUS Stablecoin Act" advancing to the final voting stage in the Senate, a channel for inflows of billions of dollars into the crypto market is about to open. Simultaneously, the U.S. SEC has initiated a new round of crypto rulemaking, signaling unprecedented policy friendliness.

Meanwhile, on-chain data shows that Bitcoin's illiquid supply has hit a new high, with chips gradually moving from short-term speculators to long-term holders. Spot ETFs continue to attract funds, and the funding rate remains low, indicating that this rally is not overheated but rather driven by institutional buying and structural tightening.

Bitcoin is moving away from its early speculative logic into a more mature, stable, and capital-driven new cycle. At a time when market sentiment is still restrained, and volatility has not yet expanded, traders and institutions have differing views on the new high, and BlockBeats has compiled some insights for readers.

Trader Analysis

Positioning Not at All-Time High, Price Breakout First = Healthy Rally?

@CryptoPainter_X

The current total network position of BTC has finally approached its historical high!

It is $29 billion away from the $695.68 billion position at the time of the previous price breakout to a new high;

Currently, the price is only $2000 away from breaking the new high. Therefore, even if the futures market completely drives the price up, it may not necessarily bring about a $29 billion increase in the position. In other words, it is challenging to form a position-price divergence here;

If a price correction occurs, and after the correction, positions gradually increase and even exceed the historical high, it may create a position divergence. This type of major structural bearish divergence occurred at the end of 2021.

Therefore, the current logic is straightforward. If the position breakout to a new high happens before the price breakout, it indicates that the market still does not have excessive FOMO, which is very healthy!

On the other hand, if the position breaks the new high before the price does, it signifies that speculative sentiment is too strong, and a sell-off could easily follow.

"Buy the Dip" Strategy: Active Buying Pressure to Counter Selling Pressure

@biupa

From the Coinkarma indicator, Bitcoin's "Rise instead of Fall" trend continues

Yesterday during my Tencent Meeting live stream, I mentioned that there would be another breakthrough testing the previous high at the end of May. On the one hand, this is due to the anticipation of a Bitcoin pump before a major conference, and on the other hand, it's based on the CoinKarma indicator which shows that Bitcoin's Liquidity (LIQ) is continuously improving. Liquidity measures the difference between buy and sell orders in the order book. A "red" indication means that there are significantly more sell orders above the price than buy orders below (standing orders). Generally speaking, this is a "bearish" signal.

After the initial breakthrough above $100,000 (May 9-14), both Bitcoin and the overall market ("Overall") gave off red signals - typically considered a "bearish signal." However, we also considered the expectation of a primary uptrend, referring to BTCUSDLONGS and ETHBTCLONGS. Therefore, we are continuing to observe. There have been a few instances of sporadic red signals later on, but the frequency is decreasing. Bitcoin, however, is still trading above $102,000.

The most recent red signal appeared in the $106,000 range. Although the price was rising, the red LIQ signal drastically decreased. Why is this? This is what I refer to as a "Rise instead of Fall" market situation, which is a key indicator of bullish strength.

Typically, red LIQ signals need to be resolved through a price drop. When there are too many sell orders at a specific level (e.g., $105,000), Bitcoin moves in the direction of least resistance (a drop). When Bitcoin falls back to $99,000, sell orders above decrease, buy orders below increase, and the long and short positions are rebalanced. This is how Bitcoin stops falling, and the LIQ indicator returns to normal.

The understanding of "Rise instead of Fall" is that aggressive buying pressure persists, continuously breaking through sell walls, reducing the standing sell orders at the critical $105,000 level until they are absorbed entirely. Therefore, as the price continues to rise, an improvement in LIQ is observed.

Observing the fact that there was a red signal only at $106,000 two days ago, and yet the LIQ significantly improved when there was a retracement to the $105,000 range, I am very confident in taking long positions. This confidence also helped me hold onto my long positions in PEPE MOODENG and others, leading to profits.

Based on seasonal and event-driven principles, I believe there is a possibility of further upside at least until the 26th. After the 26th, caution will be required (whether it's the primary uptrend or not, let's stick to the facts).

Furthermore, the copycat coin still needs Bitcoin to stabilize above $110,000 to have hope for a significant rally. Before that, only short positions can be taken.

Limited Contract Outflow, Mainstream Money Not Leaving, Caution with Long Position

@roger73005305

Let's talk about the market situation. Just now, the S&P 500 dropped 1% at the opening of the U.S. stock market, but Bitcoin did not follow suit.

Currently, in terms of Bitcoin futures data accumulation, the peak accumulation was around 6.6B-7B. The current largest outflow is 1.7B, which is not a significantly high outflow ratio. Additionally, there is still a net inflow of 5.65B. I am more inclined to believe that the mainstream money has not left yet. At this point, I still lean towards a long position.

Many friends say that the Bitcoin mainstream money drew many bottoms yesterday, but in reality, there is only one true bottom, which is the one marked by my arrow. You need to look at the bigger picture, not just at the 15min and 1h charts; you should at least look at the 4h or 1D charts.

So, before the mainstream money wants to break through, they will first do a false breakdown to trigger long positions' stop-loss orders and short positions' liquidations, and then their true intention will be revealed: an uptrend. Furthermore, as we have always said, the mainstream money's bottom chips have not been sold, so it is highly likely that the price will rise.

Therefore, the overall trend is upward. As such, I will not short; I will always look for opportunities to long high-quality coins.

Key Support Holding, Still Not Bearish Before ATH

@Cato_CryptoM

It seems that my judgment last night was still somewhat "hasty." Bitcoin initially followed the U.S. stock market at the beginning, and then started its own independent trend at 23:00. The current situation has overturned two of my viewpoints from yesterday:

1. The short-term overbought signal, both at the hourly and daily levels, has been overturned.

2. The impact of the stablecoin bill on the market is still in effect. Prior to another upward movement, the market has not fully anticipated and priced in.

Coming to a conclusion:

1. If the price breaks through and holds above the $106,450 level, which is the second highest point in 25 years, it means that a stack of chips has effectively turned over at this point. The price will further push upwards, so in the short term, a bearish view is not viable.

2. The stablecoin legislation will not be considered favorable until it is finally signed by Trump and becomes law. Once Trump signs the bill into law, it is important to pay attention to the favorable outcome.

3. The next key resistance level is the historical high, which is both a psychologically significant level and a key turning point area.

Of course, you must be wondering if my short position is still open. The answer is yes, it is. The initial position awaits the historical high before reassessment.

Chip Concentration Pause: Critical Directional Point, Volatility Approaching

@Murphychen888

From May 7th to May 14th, BTC's chip concentration dropped from a high of 15.5% to 8.2% in just 7 days. This indicates that as the price rises, it has gradually moved away from the concentrated chip zone. If the concentration continues to decline, the likely result is a further price increase.

However, we noticed that after May 14th, the concentration curve around 8.2% suddenly stopped declining and seemed to show signs of turning back up slightly. An 8.2% concentration level is neither high nor low.

If the price drops back into the concentration zone, the concentration curve will quickly rise again, brewing greater volatility. A similar scenario is the one marked on the chart as 2025.1.23, where a price retracement caused the concentration to drop from a high and then turn back up mid-way, amplifying price volatility thereafter.

Another possibility is that the price continues to rise, in which case the concentration curve merely pauses briefly before resuming the downtrend. This is similar to the scenario marked on the chart as 2024.11.3.

In short, the current concentration curve did not smoothly decline all the way but rather paused midway, bringing uncertainty to the market's direction once again. Through this indicator, it is difficult to speculate on a bullish or bearish view; it only informs us that the market may soon choose a direction.

However, when the concentration rises to a certain level, considering long positions during volatility would be a good choice.

Institutional Observation

CryptoQuant: No Signs of Market Overheating Yet

Whenever the coin price shows a strong uptrend, causing a large number of previously loss-making tokens to quickly turn profitable, the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXO) Profit/Loss Ratio rises to above 200. The higher this indicator soars, the closer the market may be to the "overheated" or "pressure releasing" stage.

Currently, this indicator is at 99, indicating that there are no signs of market overheating yet. If this moving average continues to break above 200, it will serve as a clear signal of the market sentiment entering a new round of frenzy. In other words, the market still has the potential to continue reaching new highs, but the "easy fuel" that drives the risk-reward ratio higher has essentially been depleted, requiring stronger price momentum or significant volatility going forward to push this indicator higher again.

As I mentioned yesterday, this current cycle's third "compression phase" is precisely what is propelling this indicator to break above 200 and enter the overheated stage.

Matrixport: Spot Buying Pressure-Driven, Long-Term Capital Gradually Replacing Short-Term Speculation

Bitcoin's price action is mirroring a historical trend: as the price approaches a new high, the open interest in futures contracts has also risen to a historical high of $340 billion. However, the funding rate remains close to zero, indicating that this trend is driven by spot buying pressure rather than leveraged contracts.

The subdued funding rate suggests that the market speculation bubble is limited, and the risk of a sharp correction triggered by leverage is low. As a result, the volatility has remained low in this cycle, with a low likelihood of significant short-term fluctuations.

The Bitcoin market structure is evolving, with long-term capital gradually replacing short-term speculation as the primary driving force.

10x Research: Holdings of Long-Term Holders Still Increasing, Cycle Not Yet Over

On-chain data analysis shows that in 2025, Bitcoin's "OG" wallets—those of early investors, miners, and longstanding exchange wallets—have been continuously distributing Bitcoin. This is not panic selling but a planned, rhythmic asset rotation, with Bitcoin steadily flowing to high-net-worth individuals, hedge funds, and corporate treasuries like MicroStrategy's. Meanwhile, exchange balances remain low, and market volatility is being suppressed. This cycle is not a rapid rise driven by retail FOMO as in 2017 or 2021.

This market movement is slow, strategic, and institutionally driven. As long as whales can sustain absorbing selling pressure, Bitcoin still has room to rise. Bitcoin's historical pattern indicates that the real risk is not when long-term holders start selling, but when they stop selling. That's when demand begins to wane, absorption fails, and early investors are forced back into "passive holders" mode. We witnessed this scenario in March 2024 and again in January 2025. Those two instances were clear signals, and we promptly turned bearish at that time.

Currently, the holdings of long-term holders are still increasing, indicating that this cycle is not yet over. We accurately predicted Bitcoin's breakout above $84,500, followed by surges to $95,000 and $106,000. Our next target is $122,000, based on our analysis model of macro cycles and behavioral fund flows, which has successfully identified major turning points multiple times.

QCP: Further FOMO Expected After New ATH

The 30-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yield has surpassed 3%, breaking through a historical barrier. Japan's ongoing ballooning debt issue has long been a lurking concern, and it is now nearing a critical point. If this wave of bond sell-off continues and fiscal worries escalate, a reassessment of Japan's risk in the market could drive a short-term appreciation of the yen. The turbulence in the Japanese market has already begun to affect global markets. The US 30-year Treasury yield has once again exceeded 5%, and investors are now focusing on the US's own debt path.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin today attempted to break through the $108,000 mark but failed to sustain momentum. The current price trend is closely tied to Strategy and Metaplanet's increased holdings, which remain the primary sources of buying pressure. However, as the market grows more apprehensive, they may have already represented the final wave of "marginal buyers." If their buying slows down, it could trigger profit-taking by other investors, thereby reversing the current uptrend.

Despite facing continued macro headwinds, including surging bond yields, tariff escalations, and potential stagflation risks in the US in the third and fourth quarters of 2024, Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable resilience over the past month. Nevertheless, once the price successfully breaks through its all-time high, it may trigger a new round of FOMO sentiment, pulling sideline funds into the market and further driving up the price of the coin.

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