Original Article Title: Preparing for the Pitch with Arianna Simpson

Original Source: a16z crypto

Original Compilation and Translation: Portal Labs

In the Web3 world, cycles are not anomalies but the norm. The alternation between bull and bear is like the tide of capital and the changing of seasons in nature. For founders, the greatest challenge has never been predicting the next reversal, but rather how to survive the highs and lows, and even counter-trend to create long-term value.

Recently, a16z crypto partner Arianna Simpson shared her over a decade of experience investing in the crypto industry on a podcast. From the awe of the Bitcoin whitepaper to the product-market fit of stablecoins, to the intersection of Crypto and AI, and advice for founders.

These observations and experiences are not only applicable to Silicon Valley. In the view of Portal Labs, they also provide valuable insights and references for Web3 founders and high-net-worth investors in China.

The Essence of Cycles

Arianna's entry point into crypto was the shock when she first read the Bitcoin whitepaper over a decade ago. However, what truly kept her engaged was not the moment of infatuation, but the ups and downs she witnessed over the following decade. She witnessed the birth of Bitcoin, the boom of DeFi, the frenzy of NFTs, and also went through the subsequent bubbles and cooldowns. It is in this kind of long-term observation that she gradually developed a clear understanding: the crypto industry does not experience linear growth but progresses in violent waves, with emotions and capital ebbing and flowing alternately.

Therefore, she shifted her focus from "predicting the next trend" to "identifying who is building against the wind." Her investment approach is more like following: following what the best founders are doing. When the strongest founders flock to stablecoins, funds should gravitate there; when cutting-edge teams continue to invest in Crypto × AI or DePIN, new value frontiers often take shape accordingly. It is not about having a grand thesis first and then finding projects to validate it; instead, it is about calibrating one's worldview and capital allocation based on the direction of frontline builders.

For China's Web3 founders and high-net-worth investors, this approach is more actionable than "cycle prediction." For founders, the cooldown period is not an excuse but a filter: being able to push the product and stack forward in years without applause indicates that both the direction and the team are correct; for allocators, what really needs to be evaluated is not the heat of the theme but whether the team can still maintain speed, discipline, and mission density in difficult years. This sequence of "assessing people—observing long-term execution—then discussing valuation" can transcend any short-term narrative.

Stablecoin

Let's focus on stablecoins. Arianna's assessment is quite simple: the reason it has become the current center of attention is not because of a new speculative story, but because both ends are actually using it — consumers use it for cross-border transfers and hedging against the local currency's volatility; businesses use it for settlement, allocation, and bridging accounts receivable and payable. More importantly, in the past year and a half, the two infrastructure "valves" of speed and cost have finally been opened, allowing stablecoins to transition from a payment network in imagination to a settlement layer in reality.

This is particularly relevant for China's Web3 founders and high-net-worth individuals. For teams going global, the real bottleneck is often not the product but the flow of funds: how to stably, inexpensively, and traceably send funds to Southeast Asia's tagged teams, Africa's node maintainers, Latin America's channel partners; how to enable overseas customers to make payments without complex corporate processes; how to manage periodic receivables in a dollar environment and control exchange rate risks in a local currency environment. The value of stablecoins is not in the "coin" but in the "rails." When you standardize funds flow in and out, identity verification, reconciliation receipts, and tax audit trails onto an auditable track, the complexity of cross-border business will significantly decrease.

Of course, there will be more and more issuers, but users will not bear the burden of every new symbol. Arianna's intuition is: in the short term, there will be a proliferation of stablecoins, but in the long term, it will definitely converge to a few "scaly, reputable, ecological" stablecoins; furthermore, the front-end experience will be abstracted, and users will hardly perceive specific currencies, while the back end will automatically complete clearing and settlement through "rail interactions."

This means that in the next phase of stablecoin development, teams should not waste their energy on the impulse of "I want to issue one too," but should focus on more pragmatic designs, such as thoroughly "stabilizing" your business processes, risk management, and financial systems into a stablecoin-native state. When your product can naturally run on a path priced in dollars, settled in stablecoins, and reconciled on-chain, your cross-border efficiency and credibility will directly stand out among peers.

For high-net-worth individuals, stablecoins are a new cash management tool and a "low-friction channel" for global liquidity. However, this does not mean it's risk-free; at the portfolio level, reserving an on-chain track for "liquidity turnover" and "hedging against local currency volatility" is a more forward-looking portfolio health strategy. In simple terms, two principles: carefully select counterparties, diversify custody and wallets; prioritize "compliance and explainability" as the first constraint, rather than a last-minute task.

Crypto × AI × DePIN

Arianna emphasizes that a supercycle is often not driven by a single technology but by several curves resonating and overlapping in the same time window. The clearest combination today is the decentralization incentive of crypto, the centralized computing power and data hunger of AI, layered with DePIN's real-world resource arrangement.

Translate it into the language of a Chinese founder:

In our hardware supply chain, manufacturing and deployment, and edge node engineering organization, we have a rare long-term accumulation of experience. If you can use a stablecoin to connect the "Contribution—Metrics—Payment" chain, to incentivize real-world data and resources to be put on-chain, and then package these resources into AI-consumable standardized products (datasets, annotations, bandwidth, storage, inference time slices), you will have the opportunity to create a "supply-side platform." This is not a tokenomics presentation-style approach, but a serious operations-focused approach: metric definition, anti-cheating measures, settlement frequency, dispute resolution, reputation system—all need to be engineered.

Another important aspect is "authenticity." The existence of deepfake content is not frightening; what is frightening is an unverifiable environment. Verifiable timestamps, generation paths, device signatures, and traceability of the operator are the "new water, electricity, and gas" of the future content and commodity internet. For Chinese teams engaged in brand globalization, second-hand transactions, and luxury goods circulation, this increment is within reach. Do the difficult but right thing: make "verifiability of authenticity" the default, rather than a paid option.

Now let's look at AI Agents. Giving a semi-mature agent a credit card for "self-service online shopping" is irresponsible; however, providing it with a wallet that has a credit limit, is reversible, and auditable, and allowing it to complete a set of transactions within a defined strategy (subscription, API purchase, commission payment) is feasible. In other words, "the wallet is the permission system." True application lies not in the grandiose "omnipotent agent," but in the vertical-depth "bounded rationality agent"—using an on-chain wallet to tie permissions, budgets, logs, and counterparties together within a strongly constrained business domain.

Funding and Governance

The funding environment of 2020–2021 may have given many Web3 enthusiasts a misconception—that there is no need for a pitch deck, no need for a model, and that investors will offer outlandish terms in a Twitter DM.

Arianna puts it plainly: that was a "dusk moment illusion," not the norm, and today we should return to the basics. Prepare materials that can withstand scrutiny, honestly present metrics, set funding targets conservatively but with room for overshooting; it's better to close a reasonable round first, then snowball, than to end up with nothing after initially asking for $50 million.

For Chinese founders, a more realistic sequence is: first, establish the foundation, then discuss money. First, the technical and product engineering resilience—performance, risk control, observability, operability; second, compliance and policy pathways—KYC/AML, cross-border data segmentation, funds and data flows that are auditable, tax and invoice closed-loop; third, a verifiable business loop—real payments, positive unit economics, stable repayment rhythm. In public narratives, talk less about "coins" and focus more on supply-side infrastructure: for example, use DePIN to standardize compute power / bandwidth / sensor data into billable APIs, or use RWA to digitize existing assets and embed them into compliant issuance and settlement processes. When these three aspects have a chain of evidence, then fund incrementally based on milestones, rather than letting funding dictate the direction of the business.

Governance also needs to return to common sense. A 50/50 split is not fair; it is negligence. Equity, board of directors, reserved matters, vesting period, cliff period, founder departure terms, intellectual property ownership — none of these are sexy, but each one determines whether you can weather the first major storm. Arianna even doesn't shy away from the benefits of "single-founder" — at least she won't have a falling out with herself. Portal Labs suggests that instead of obsessing over "number of partners," it's better to have a clear "rights and responsibilities list" and "conflict resolution mechanism"; rehearse the worst-case scenarios clearly to be able to run faster when the time comes.

Competition and Expansion

Being copied is not news; being obsessed with head-to-head competition is. Arianna's approach is to reclaim the narrative: define topics with product cadence, key metrics, and customer stories, rather than being traffic-driven towards competitors. For Chinese Web3 teams, especially, it is essential to fill the PR and communication "infrastructure": professional branding team, media whitelist, KOL advocates, product education for user communities, and transparency in technical documentation. Narration is not just PR jargon but evidence of your continuous delivery.

At the same time, uncontrolled growth is both a good thing and a crisis. When the service waterline is breached, handle it in a staged manner like a firefighting operation: first protect fund security and user assets, then ensure availability, then optimize the experience. Measures such as throttling, creating temporary whitelists, outsourcing customer service and risk management, rapid bridge of computing power, are all acceptable trade-offs. Write your "disaster recovery plan" when the sea is calm, not when you are trending.

Merger and acquisition is another signal. Traditional giants are starting to become buyers in crypto, and industry-specific "jigsaw puzzle mergers" are also emerging. Ideally, you want to be the acquirer, but being acquired excellently may also be the best solution for the team, users, and early shareholders. The evaluation criteria are simple: strategic fit, user value, team continuity, respect for the tech roadmap. Leave emotions to your social circle and terms to lawyers.

Do the Hard and Right Thing Longer

The market will not provide founders with a standard answer, let alone the cycle. Therefore, instead of being busy predicting waves, focus on those who can still push the system forward in the headwinds, and then allocate time and resources to them. In the Chinese context, the answer is simpler yet harder: slogans are not just for show; they need to be backed up with solid accounting, systems, and compliance drafts; growth is not just a trend; it is a stable, reusable supply and revenue; competition is not merely a head-to-head battle; it is about holding the narrative power and reclaiming the conversation with continuous delivery.

If there is one thing to leave for Chinese Web3, Portal Labs believes it should be this: do the hard and right thing longer, spend less time chasing trends, and see who is still in the game and whose system is still running ten years later. The cycle will continue to rise and fall, but what truly determines victory is never the weather but the foundation on which you build your house.

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