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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.
Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.
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Jonathan Treussard of Treussard Capital Management joins Forward Guidance to help define what a bubble is. By his strict definition, nothing qualifies right now. But as money flows into risk assets, valuations become stretched. Treussard has trouble with the high valuations in the U.S. market, and sees opportunities in the cheaper European and Japanese markets. He also shares his views on the risk of the “engineered yield” that comes from strategies that sell options explicitly or implicitly. Filmed on April 2, 2024.
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About Treussard Capital Management: https://www.treussard.com/
2004 Paper on Bubbles with Earl Thompson and Charles Hickson: http://www.econ.ucla.edu/workingpapers/wp836.pdf
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:45) Hallmarks Of A Financial Bubble: New Technology and Valuations Stretching Far Beyond Fundamentals
(05:24) How Bubbles Remake Social Orders
(07:25) Credit Bubbles Vs. Equity Bubbles
(10:00) The Rise of Private Credit
(11:44) In Wealth Management, Private Credit Tends To Be "More Sold Than Bought"
(15:25) Private Credit Is "Concerning" But "Not A Bubble"
(17:05) U.S. Stocks Are Expensive
(19:55) Trade Wars & Geopolitical Blockades Are A Serious Risk To Nvidia
(26:49) Europe and Japan
(29:08) VanEck Ad
(30:10) T-Bill And Chill Has Been Drastically Outperformed By Stock Market Beta
(31:03) Investment Framework For The New Cold War
(43:58) How Option Theory Applies To Economics, Investing, And Life
(49:35) Jonathan's Work As A Risk Manager During 2008
(55:53) Beware "Engineered Yield"
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.
Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.
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Mark Dow has had experience in the global monetary system, having worked at the IMF, as an advisor to three Presidents, and at many central banks around the world. But he thinks that generally, monetary plumbing is given too much credit for the gyrations of asset prices and economic outcomes. He joins Forward Guidance to share why. Recorded on April 9, 2024.
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Follow Mark Dow on Twitter https://twitter.com/mark_dow
Follow Mark’s Other Account, Behavioral Macro https://twitter.com/BehavioralMacro
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Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:39) How Much Does Monetary Policy Actually Matter?
(07:27) The Fed Matters In A Crisis
(12:11) Psychology Impacts Stock Market Valuations More Than Interest Rates
(16:41) ...But Interest Rate Fall Stimulates Housing Mortgage Credit Creation, Doesn't It?
(20:48) Mark Argues Mortgage Spread Not Very Affected By Quantitative Easing (QE) - Jack Pushes Back
(26:11) VanEck Ad
(27:13)
(30:51) QE's Impact on Bond Yields And The Difficulty Of Determining What Is Cause And What Is Effect
(39:39) The Wealth Effect Has Been Very Weak
(41:36) Mark Argues The Bulk Of Inflation Was Caused By Transitory Supply-Side Factors
(51:29) Federal Reserve's Role In U.S. Treasury Market
(58:54) Mark's View On The Narrative That Fed Will Monetize U.S. Fiscal Deficits
(01:00:51) Gold and Real Rates
(01:08:04) Changes In Monetary System Since 2008 Great Financial Crisis (GFC)
(01:14:51) Fed Balance Sheet Policy DOES Matter For Institutional Fixed-Income Portfolios Sensitive To A Few Basis Points In Bond Spreads
(01:18:49) Mark's Market Views: Is He Still Bullish On Stocks?
(01:21:34) Mark's Trading Framework Using Technicals and Behavioral Economics
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
