In this episode, Professor of Political Economy at Cambridge Helen Thompson joins the show to discuss how Trump’s trade war, China’s energy and rare earth dominance, the Western Hemisphere’s oil boom, and NATO’s fiscal squeeze are reshaping global power. Enjoy!

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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

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—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:35) Today’s Geopolitical Landscape

(05:49) Parallels in History & China Difference

(11:06) VanEck Ad

(11:51) What are the Goals of Tariffs?

(17:53) Fight Over Energy Commodities

(27:45) VanEck Ad

(28:25) How Will Energy Divide the World?

(33:01) Balancing Debt with Defense Spending

(38:43) Threat to Dollar as Reserve Currency

(43:45) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, Quinn and Tyler cover lighter-than-expected PPI data, the Fed’s shifting focus from inflation to labor, deep labor-market revisions showing a “two-speed” U.S. economy, surging AI/data-center CapEx alongside weakening Main Street, and the concentration risks of mega-cap stocks and buybacks. Enjoy!

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ogspUIuKxnHZh7REVA9tKpo7tyPCA52W/view?usp=sharing

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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

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—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:40) DAS London

(02:59) Inflation Update

(08:15) No High-Yield Problem

(12:11) Rate Cuts vs Inflation

(13:40) VanEck Ad

(14:24) Rate Cuts vs Inflation

(15:40) Problems in the Labor Market

(20:35) Small-Caps & Productivity Boom

(23:05) Fiscal Dominance & Inflation

(26:46) VanEck Ad

(27:27) SPX Implied Vol & Market Structure

(32:12) AI Boom & CapEx

(38:24) Bipolar Market Outcomes

(42:17) Centralization vs Diversification

(49:11) What’s Next for Markets?

(52:56) Final Thoughts

—

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Founders of Atlas Merchant Capital Bob Diamond and David Schamis discuss their journey from traditional finance to digital assets. They discuss Hyperliquid’s explosive growth, permissionless financial rails, and the innovation of perpetual swaps. We also cover the unique token model with daily buybacks, how Atlas is bringing access to U.S. investors through a new treasury vehicle, and the broader macro backdrop of debt, stablecoins, and institutional adoption of blockchain. Enjoy!

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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

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—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:54) Backgrounds: Skeptics to Believers

(09:14) Hyperliquid Innovations

(15:19) VanEck Ad

(16:07) The Case for Perps

(18:49) Blockchain Benefits

(21:43) Public vs Private Blockchains

(24:36) Atlas Value Proposition

(33:06) VanEck Ad

(33:47) Real Cash Flow & Valuation

(36:37) Turning Point for Finance?

(40:16) US Debt & Stablecoins

(44:07) Final Thoughts

__

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we discuss all the growing list of weaker labor market data after August NFP showed just 22K jobs added. We also debate whether the Fed will have room to cut 50bps in September while stagflation rears its head, the potential implications if tariffs are overturned, and whether it’s time to be concerned about liquidity and Fed plumbing. Ultimately, everything leads us to one asset. Enjoy!

—

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for 100 OFF

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1LyoebYlP0p27AqN4mQKVMH6PuYFi9T73/view?usp=sharing

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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

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—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:07) Tyler Back to School

(02:48) DAS London

(04:24) Big Labor Market Week

(09:29) NFP Downside Surprise

(11:11) VanEck Ad

(11:57) NFP Downside Surprise

(14:04) September Cut Odds

(17:28) Bulled Up on Gold

(22:59) VanEck Ad

(24:21) Will Tariffs Get Overruled?

(28:35) Fed Plumbing Concerns

(36:39) Read on the Dollar

(39:25) Macro Recap

(41:34) Final Thoughts

—

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, Ben Kizemchuk joins the show to discuss his “Four Fs” macro framework – Fiscal Dominance, Financial Repression, Fiat Currency, & Passive Flows – arguing that we’re in a unique historical moment where all four are converging at once. He explains how fiscal spending reshapes growth, why financial repression and passive flows stabilize markets, and how fiat currency enables this entire regime. Ben also shares how these dynamics blur the line between the stock market and the economy, setting the stage for an AI-driven future. Enjoy!

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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

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Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

—

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:42 Ben’s Journey Through Markets

03:05 Ben’s 4 Fs Framework

06:10 F1 - Fiscal Dominance

11:00 Catalysts for Fiscal Dominance

14:15 How Sustainable is Government Debt?

17:36 F2 - Financial Repression

23:28 Rates in a Fiat vs Gold-Backed System

27:20 F3 - Fiat Currency

33:00 Are Governments Constrained by Supply & Demand?

34:55 Role of Monetary Policy Going Forward

39:56 F4 - Passive Flows

44:02 Constraints on Passive Flows

48:25 4 Fs Implications

51:53 Rethinking Asset Allocation

54:35 Final Thoughts

__

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we break down the seasonal market pivot around Labor Day, how systematic strategies dominate price action, and why inflation and economic re-acceleration could make a September rate cut a policy mistake. We also dive into the shift from capital to labor, growing government intervention in markets, parallels between AI CapEx and past gold cycles, the potential rotation from large-caps into small caps, and the state of treasury companies. Enjoy!

—

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for 100 OFF

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__

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/10EvjpyXzXIjKJsjlwp5C3zKhQTn2pS5t/view?usp=sharing

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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

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—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:32) Labor Day Reset?

(05:39) Market Structure & Volatility

(12:58) VanEck Ad

(13:43) Market Structure & Volatility

(14:21) Fed Takeover Update

(15:21) The Inflation Trade

(22:08) Wages & Shift from Capital to Labor

(28:41) VanEck Ad

(29:22) Liquidity Danger Zone?

(41:34) The Capex Cycle

(48:28) What’s Next for Treasury Companies?

(51:32) Tyler’s New Job

(53:01) Russell & Market Breadth

(55:15) Final Thoughts

—

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, founder of The Macro Compass Alfonso Peccatiello breaks down the clash between Trump’s political influence on the Fed, the reality of U.S. fiscal policy, and how to think about global markets at this moment in time. We also dig into forward rate pricing, the TGA rebuild, and the role of commodities and crypto in a world of loose monetary and fiscal policy. Enjoy!

__

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance 

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for 100 OFF

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london 

__

This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): 

http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): 

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:42) What’s Happening with Monetary Policy?

(07:46) What Fed Risk is the Market Pricing?

(10:55) Bond Market & Fiscal Tightening

(13:54) Understanding Changing Fiscal Impulse

(14:51) VanEck Ad

(15:34) Understanding Changing Fiscal Impulse

(19:46) QE vs Fiscal Deficits

(24:41) Impact of TGA Rebuild

(29:27) Signal for Average Macro Traders

(30:04) VanEck Ad

(35:05) Investing in High Inflation & Growth

(36:59) European Markets

(40:31) US Dollar & Emerging Markets

(43:54) Commodities Outlook

(47:03) Final Thoughts

__

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we break down the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium and whether we can expect a dovish or hawkish tilt from Powell’s legacy speech. We also dig into the Fed’s five-year policy review, Trump’s Fed takeover strategy, foreign retreat from Treasury auctions, and whether the risks of inflation are greater than the risk of recession. Enjoy!

—

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for 100 OFF

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zjfyhnCSgVzJ5u4f7LAHct6KKLq_6gxk/view?usp=sharing

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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:50) Jackson Hole Preview

(09:43) VanEck Ad

(10:27) Fed Minutes

(13:05) Will Powell Be A Dove or Hawk?

(19:02) Bullish Post Jackson Hole?

(20:10) JH Impact on Bond Yields

(25:09) Trump’s Fed Takeover Strategy

(29:36) Centralization & the Frontiers

(32:42) VanEck Ad

(33:24) Treasury Auctions in Danger Zone?

(38:19) Hike to Save the Long End!

(40:05) Boom Time in Japan?

(43:45) Inflation Risk > Recession Risk

(47:00) The New Financial Reality

(51:32) Short Financials?

(52:30) Final Thoughts

—

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode, David Grider of Finality Capital shares how he runs a digital asset hedge fund, the rise of digital asset treasury companies, and the evolving credit and derivatives markets shaping institutional crypto adoption. He also explains how macro liquidity signals drive his strategy and why the new toolbox of crypto credit instruments is changing the game for risk management and alpha generation. Enjoy!

__

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Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance 

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for 100 OFF

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london 

__

This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): 

http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): 

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(04:49) Running A Liquid Crypto Fund

(09:29) VanEck Ad

(10:14) Main Sources of Alpha

(12:29) Have We Had an Alt Season?

(14:34) Evolution of Crypto Derivatives

(17:46) Quantifying Market Froth

(20:32) Measuring Systemic Risk

(25:22) VanEck Ad

(26:03) Can ETH DATs Issue Preferreds?

(29:15) Crypto’s Credit Market

(31:54) What Happens When NAV is Negative?

(33:59) Framework for Saylor’s New Yield Curve

(38:42) What Should Saylor Do Next?

(44:13) Managing the full Spectrum of Tools

(48:21) Final Thoughts

__

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, Brent Johnson joins us to break down the latest CPI & PPI data, the potential for September rate cuts, and why he thinks we’re ripe for a 10–15% correction. We also unpack Trump’s political strategy toward Powell, Brent’s dollar milkshake theory, and AI’s long-term impact on productivity, inflation, and the next generation. Enjoy!

—

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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for 100 OFF

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__

Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HpY5-OGzqa3t0tVz1a-2RnUXCI6BbZU5/view?usp=sharing

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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):

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Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):

vaneck.com/SMHXFelix

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(04:28) Inflation Heating Up?

(07:45) Brent's Macro Outlook

(12:08) VanEck Ad

(12:53) Should the Fed Cut?

(16:01) Time for a Correction?

(28:58) VanEck Ad

(29:38) Dampening of Animal Spirits

(33:29) Going Full Ponzi?

(37:15) The Imperial Circle

(41:31) Is the Dollar Milkshake Still Intact?

(48:45) Gold & Gold Miners

(51:13) Bifurcated Economy

(55:29) AI Boom Bearing Fruit?

(58:41) What Does Trump Really Want?

(01:22:11) The Younger Generation Is Screwed

(01:04:12) Stablecoins & the US Empire

(01:07:06) Final Thoughts

—

Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance