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Single Episode:196
Forward Guidance
Host Introduction:
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Jack Farley interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.
Global Liquidity Cycle & the Worldwide Rush Into Hard Assets | Weekly Roundup

This week, we’re joined by Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital live from DAS London to break down the global liquidity cycle, the hidden recession and re-acceleration in the U.S., the impact of monetary debasement on gold and Bitcoin, China’s liquidity surge and stablecoin risks, and Europe’s structural challenges. We close with why today’s environment is truly unique in 4,000 years of monetary history. Enjoy!



Follow Michael: https://x.com/crossbordercap


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Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx


Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance



Timestamps:


(00:00) Introduction


(01:51) Where Are We in the Global Liquidity Cycle?


(05:26) Main St. Recession & Economic Rebound


(08:49) GDP vs Liquidity Cycles


(10:33) QE, Liquidity & Gold vs BTC


(15:44) No 4-Year Cycle But Still Bullish


(20:05) Stablecoins & China


(27:01) Europe’s Economic Struggles


(29:15) Developed Nation Decline


(34:55) How Unique is this Moment?



Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.




#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance



37分01秒 2025-10-17
Crypto's Biggest Liquidation, DAT Strategies, & The Purification Trade | Jeff Park

In this episode, CIO of ProCap Jeff Park unpacks the recent crypto market meltdown, the dangers of over-leveraging in perpetual futures, and why Bitcoin could now front-run altcoins. He also gives insights into ProCap’s work as a Bitcoin treasury company, the future of DATs, and reframes the “debasement trade” as a “purification trade” in today’s distorted macro environment. Enjoy!


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Follow Jeff: https://x.com/dgt10011


Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc


Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance


Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_




Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx


Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance



Timestamps:


(00:00) Introduction


(02:01) Crypto Meltdown Post-Mortem


(07:09) Where Do Markets Go From Here?


(08:26) Evolving DAT Strategy


(16:17) Debasement vs. Purification Trade


(21:25) What’s Different this Time?


(26:31) The Cost of Years of Debasement


(31:42) Final Thoughts


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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.




#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance



33分50秒 2025-10-15
The Ingredients Are in Place for a Blow-Off Top | Weekly Roundup

This week, we discuss the government shutdown and market melt-up, Paul Tudor Jones’ blow off bull market call, an update to the gold trade, the AI CapEx boom and its circular financing, and Quinn’s ETH bull thesis. Enjoy!



Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_


Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp


Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc


Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance


Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_




Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx


Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance



Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD200 for 200 OFF


https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london


__


Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Quf3Gf0AY0s6xyHJMmAGZeaZr-quBame/view?usp=sharing



This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.




Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):


http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix




Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):


vaneck.com/SMHXFelix



Timestamps:


(00:00) Introduction


(03:43) Government Shutdown


(05:45) Realized Vol Tailwinds


(08:43) Gearing Up for Earnings Season


(11:12) Navigating the Melt Up


(12:57) VanEck Ad


(13:42) It’s Okay to Change Your Mind


(21:27) Markets Are Political


(26:44) The Gold Trade


(34:43) VanEck Ad


(35:23) The Gold Trade


(36:36) AI is the Market


(43:53) The ETH Thesis


(51:48) Retail Market Evolution


(56:41) Final Thoughts



Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.




#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance



57分47秒 2025-10-10
The Recession Has Already Started | George Robertson

In this episode, George Robertson returns to break down why he’s turned bearish. He explains why he thinks massive fiscal tightening from tariffs and job cuts, corporate profits rolling over, and the flow-of-funds are signaling recession even as markets sit at all-time highs. He walks through employment indicators, withholding data, and the widening gap between S&P levels and actual earnings, arguing the downturn has already begun. Enjoy!


__


Follow George: https://x.com/BickerinBrattle


Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc


Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance


Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_




Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx


Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance


__


Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD200 for 200 OFF


https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london


__


This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.




Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):


http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix




Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):


vaneck.com/SMHXFelix



Timestamps:


(00:00) Introduction


(02:39) George’s Market Outlook


(05:38) Where the Money’s Moving?


(06:57) Trump’s Economic Ripple Effects


(08:56) How the Fed Shapes the Cycle


(15:12) VanEck Ad


(15:56) COVID Spending & Fiscal Fallout


(23:20) Are We in a Recession?


(32:09) VanEck Ad


(32:50) Jobs Data & FICA Withholding


(38:29) Taxes, Tariffs & Shorting the Market


(44:15) Supreme Court and Constitutional Risk


(48:59) When Does the Music Stop?


(54:50) Final Thoughts


__


Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.




#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance



56分43秒 2025-10-08
This Bull Market Has Legs | Weekly Roundup

This week, we dig into the government shutdown, weakening labor markets, AI’s role in productivity, Michael Howell’s demographic analysis, and how fiscal and market structure dynamics set the stage for a potential risk-asset melt-up. Enjoy!



Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_


Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp


Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc


Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance


Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_




Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx


Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance



Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD200 for 200 OFF


https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london


__


Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qHbnslxFOFZXswRiw0yv1JCyplgm8haE/view?usp=sharing



This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.




Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):


http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix




Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):


vaneck.com/SMHXFelix



Timestamps:


(00:00) Introduction


(03:09) DAS London!


(04:06) Government Shutdown


(06:42) Labor Weakness Continues


(13:45) VanEck Ad


(14:31) Demographic Decay of Advanced Economies


(17:18) Are You Ready for Negative Real Yields?


(19:20) The Macro Stars Are Aligning


(24:40) Is it a Bubble or Not?


(29:53) VanEck Ad


(30:33) Is it a Bubble or Not?


(31:40) Gaming Out Trump Admin Policy


(38:06) Is there a Bear Case?


(41:27) Strong USD, Strong Economy


(43:52) Does the Bull Market Have Legs?


(51:14) Best Bear Case


(53:16) Final Thoughts



Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.




#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance



55分25秒 2025-10-03
Emerging Markets, Stablecoins & Why You Should Look Beyond the U.S. | Amy Oldenburg

In this episode, Morgan Stanley’s Head of Emerging Markets Equity Amy Oldenburg explains how her journey from tech to emerging markets led her to crypto, why mobile-first nations are fertile ground for stablecoins, how governments and banks are wrestling with this shift, and where she sees the next big opportunities across EM and innovation. Enjoy!


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Follow Amy: https://www.linkedin.com/in/amyoldenburg/


Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc


Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance


Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_






Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx


Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance


__


Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for 100 OFF


https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london


__


This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.






Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):


http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix






Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):


vaneck.com/SMHXFelix



Timestamps:


(00:00) Introduction


(04:06) How Emerging Markets Are Embracing Crypto


(06:34) Stablecoins Transforming Emerging Economies


(10:30) VanEck Ad


(11:13) Banks vs Stablecoins


(13:28) Hottest Trends Across EMs


(17:00) Innovation 3.0 in China & EMs


(17:39) VanEck Ad


(18:19) Innovation 3.0 in China & EMs


(20:41) Final Thoughts


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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.






#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance



21分06秒 2025-10-01
Economic Reacceleration or Growth Scare? | Weekly Roundup

This week, we discuss the biggest risks to the economy, whether Mag7 is a bubble, surprisingly strong consumer data, the increasingly noisy housing and labor markets, risks around Fed policy and dollar liquidity, and why gold has been a cleaner macro hedge than Bitcoin. Enjoy!



Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_


Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp


Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc


Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance


Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_






Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx


Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance



Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for 100 OFF


https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london


__


Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CN8SRsPqdupjrs27C0k1PDRfvGLf8kS6/view?usp=sharing



This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.






Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):


http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix






Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):


vaneck.com/SMHXFelix



Timestamps:


(00:00) Introduction


(03:23) DAS London


(04:29) Macro Outlook


(06:17) Strong GDP Numbers


(07:38) Understanding the New Economy


(13:02) VanEck Ad


(13:46) The Housing Market


(19:25) Biggest Risks to the Economy


(27:36) Market Structure Update


(29:06) VanEck Ad


(29:47) Market Structure Update


(33:24) Is Mag7 a Bubble?


(39:16) Inflation is the Plan & Problem


(43:42) The Poison of Financialization


(45:48) Breaking a Broken System


(50:15) Gold Pump vs Crypto Slump


(55:11) Protectist Policies & the Dollar


(01:05:50) Final Thoughts



Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.






#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance



1时07分37秒 2025-09-26
Inevitable Money Printing Will Drive A “Debt Doom Loop” | Arthur Hayes

In this episode, Co-Founder of BitMEX & CIO of Maelstrom Arthur Hayes shares his macro view on the erosion of Fed independence, inevitable money printing, and how these forces intersect with crypto markets. He covers Bitcoin’s performance versus gold and stocks, the political choices around AI’s productivity boom, and why DeFi, stablecoins, and new decentralized trading models are at the heart of the next cycle. Enjoy!


__


Follow Arthur: https://x.com/CryptoHayes 


Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc


Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance 


Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ 




Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx 


Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance 


__


Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for 100 OFF


https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london 


__


This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.




Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): 


http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix




Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): 


vaneck.com/SMHXFelix



Timestamps:


(00:00) Introduction


(02:42) Money Printing & Yield Curve Control


(05:33) What Does this Mean for Bitcoin?


(08:38) VanEck Ad


(09:22) AI & the Debt Doom Loop


(13:19) Favorite Crypto Themes & Innovations


(14:23) Perp DEXes & Hyperliquid


(18:47) VanEck Ad


(19:28) Stablecoin Winners & Losers


(22:45) Stablecoin Systemic Risk


(24:43) AI, Intellectual Property, and Blockchain


(25:59) Western vs. Asian Crypto Markets


__


Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.




#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance



27分21秒 2025-09-24
Winners & Losers After The Fed’s Dovish Pivot | Weekly Roundup

This week, we discuss the Fed rate cut and dovish pivot, exacerbating the K-shaped economy, why the dollar could be bottoming, and why gold helps Quinn sleep at night. We also dig into Bitcoin’s correlation to gold, the hollowing out of public markets by private credit, and more. Enjoy!



Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_


Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp


Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc


Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance


Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_






Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx


Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance



Join us at Origin Summit


https://www.originsummit.xyz/


Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for 100 OFF


https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london


__


Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BX16NXlhxAHHCXiWc9o1EJ2-S20K-sZF/view?usp=sharing



This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.






Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):


http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix






Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):


vaneck.com/SMHXFelix





Timestamps:


(00:00) Introduction


(03:38) Origin Summit


(04:18) Why Are We Cutting Again?


(11:30) Cutting Into a Hot Economy?


(13:06) VanEck Ad


(13:50) Cutting Into a Hot Economy?


(17:16) What’s Next for the Dollar?


(21:39) Market Structure & Asset Allocation


(26:47) Is the Gold Trade Still Alive?


(28:28) VanEck Ad


(29:13) Bitcoin vs Gold


(33:52) Private vs Public Markets


(48:22) Generational and Class Politics


(50:50) Optimism for the Future





Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.






#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance



52分38秒 2025-09-19
Energy & Trade Wars Are Rewriting the World Order | Helen Thompson

In this episode, Professor of Political Economy at Cambridge Helen Thompson joins the show to discuss how Trump’s trade war, China’s energy and rare earth dominance, the Western Hemisphere’s oil boom, and NATO’s fiscal squeeze are reshaping global power. Enjoy!


__


Follow Helen: https://x.com/HelenHet20


Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc


Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance


Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_




Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx


Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance


__


Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for 100 OFF


https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london


__


This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.




Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):


http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix




Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):


vaneck.com/SMHXFelix



Timestamps:


(00:00) Introduction


(02:35) Today’s Geopolitical Landscape


(05:49) Parallels in History & China Difference


(11:06) VanEck Ad


(11:51) What are the Goals of Tariffs?


(17:53) Fight Over Energy Commodities


(27:45) VanEck Ad


(28:25) How Will Energy Divide the World?


(33:01) Balancing Debt with Defense Spending


(38:43) Threat to Dollar as Reserve Currency


(43:45) Final Thoughts


__


Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.




#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance



44分46秒 2025-09-17
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