Single Episode:40
Forward Guidance
Host Introduction:
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Jack Farley interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.
Growth Scare Hits U.S. Economy | Barry Knapp on Fed’s “Quadrilemma,” Lehman Brothers, and Job Market

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:37) The Fed's Quadrilemma

(09:46) The Fed's Views Of The Beveridge Curve and Phillips Curve

(34:06) VanEck Ad

(34:46) The Slow Death Of The Interbank Lending Market (AKA Fed Funds Market)

(38:27) Fed Should Adopt Once More A "Bills-Only" Policy

(43:21) Lehman: A Retrospective

(48:47) Fannie & Freddie's Role In Facilitating The Growth Of Subprime Securitized Products

(50:46) Moral Hazard In The Banking System Before The Great Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008

(01:02:48) Lehman's Biggest Exposure Was Commercial Real Estate (CRE & CMBS), Not Subprime Residential (RMBS)


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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

1时19分38秒 2024-06-13
“Get Used to 3-4% Inflation and 4-5% Interest Rates” | Jim Bianco on Fed’s June Meeting and Resilient U.S. Economy

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

17:39 VanEck Ad


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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


1时08分55秒 2024-06-12
Secrets of the Federal Reserve’s Unconventional Monetary Policy | William English, former Director of Division of Monetary Affairs for the Fed Board of Governors, on Quantitative Easing (QE) and Forward Guidance

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

William English’s work at the Yale Program on Financial Stability: https://som.yale.edu/faculty-research/faculty-directory/william-b-english

William English’s co-authored new book, “Monetary Policy Responses to Post-Pandemic Inflation”: https://cepr.org/about/news/press-release-new-cepr-ebook-monetary-policy-responses-post-pandemic-inflation

William English’s co-authored Chapter on the Fed’s Balance Sheet: https://www.elgaronline.com/edcollchap/book/9781800375321/book-part-9781800375321-7.xml

William English’s 2012 paper on the rationale and effects of QE: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/the-federal-reserve39s-large-scale-asset-purchase-programs-rationale-and-effects.htm

“Interest Rate Risk and Bank Equity Valuations”: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/interest-rate-risks-and-bank-equity-valuations.htm

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:31) Fiscal Policy & Monetary Policy Never Really Were Separated. But It Would Nice If They Were

(03:49) Do High Interest Rates Dissuade Government Borrowing?

(07:09) The Fed Doesn't Like To Discuss Fiscal Policy

(09:53) The Fed's Balance Sheet Expansion of 2020 & 2021

(13:57) The Effects of Quantitative Easing (QE), In Theory And Practice

(18:59) I Don't Remember Us (The Fed) Thinking A Lot About Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP)

(23:41) VanEck Ad

(24:22) The October 2008 Decision To Allow The Fed To Pay Interest On Reserves Assisted the Implementation of Quantitative Easing (QE), Which Began ~1 Month Later

(29:15) The Striking Thing About The Asset Purchases Was The Size

(32:32) Forward Guidance vs. QE: Which Is More Powerful, And Which Has More Knock-on Effects?

(36:27) Forward Guidance Is More Powerful When Initial Market Expectations About Future Policy Rates Are Incorrect

(44:37) Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) Framework Adopted By The Fed In 2020

(52:48) Fast QE & Slow QT = Secular Rise In Size of Fed Balance Sheet

(57:27) Fed's Decision To Slow Pace of QT Was Due To Desire To Avoid a "Snafu" In Money Markets Such As In September 2019

(01:02:36) The Bernanke Doctrine: Should Interest Rate Policy & Balance Sheet Policy Always Be Pointed In The Same Direction?

(01:07:12) If Balance Sheet Policy Is Moving The Opposite Direction Of Interest Rate Policy, Does That Weaken The Signaling Impact Of Balance Sheet Policy?

(01:11:50) Lowest Comfortable Level of Reserves (LCLoR)

(01:19:34) Impact Of Interest Rate Movements On Bank Equity Valuations


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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


1时25分07秒 2024-06-10
Patrick Perret-Green: China Will Export Deflation, The U.S. Labor Market Is Softening (For Real This Time)

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:33) China Exporting Deflationary Pressure

(05:20) "Froth" In Commodities

(11:27) The Future Of Fiscal Policy In The U.S.

(19:41) VanEck Ad

(20:21) How Forward Looking Will Central Bankers Be?

(34:35) Chinese National Accounts And Flows

(41:21) War And Finance

(45:30) Bank of Japan

(54:57) Bond Market & Fixed-Income Trades

(01:06:16) Currency Trades on The Yen & Yuan

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


1时32分09秒 2024-06-06
The Modular Integration Spectrum | Keone & Zon

In this episode, Keone from Monad and Zon from Initia to discuss the spectrum between modular and integrated blockchain designs. They explore the tradeoffs in decentralization, performance and scalability between the two approaches. They explore AppChains, rollups, composability challenges in modular systems, EVM compatibility, and when to scale blockchains horizontally vs vertically. To close out Keone and Zon also share valuable insights on building Web3 communities organically. Thanks for tuning in!

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(00:00) Introduction

(03:24) Modular vs Integrated

(11:47) Who are Appchains for?

(28:58) Composability in Modular World

(36:15) Monad's Endgame

(39:47) Importance of Decentralization

(48:05) Building Web3 Community

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Disclaimer:


Expansion was kickstarted by a grant from the Celestia Foundation.


Nothing said on Expansion is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Rex, Jon, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

1时03分45秒 2024-06-05
Jens Nordvig: Days of Japan’s Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) Are Numbered

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.


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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:53) Japan

(11:48) Wages Are Rising In Japan

(16:45) The Effective End Of Yield Curve Control (YCC) In Japan

(22:57) When Will The Bank of Japan Raise Interest Rates?

(25:03) VanEck Ad

(26:43) How High Will The Bank of Japan (BOJ) Go?

(33:12) Jens' View On The Japanese Yen

(56:00) Jens' Updated Views On U.S. Dollar And U.S. Rates


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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


1时00分58秒 2024-06-04
The Inflation Paradox: Inflation Is Still A Problem | Weekly Roundup

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This week Jack Farley joins us to discuss the biggest stories of the week. With economic data showing early signs of slowing, we deep dive into why inflation is still a problem for most citizens & although we are not in a recession, we are very much so in a "vibecession". Enjoy!

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

46分21秒 2024-06-01
Contrarian Jason Shapiro: Bearish on Industrial Metals, Neutral on Stocks and Bullish on Bonds (for now)

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

Jason Shapiro on Twitter https://x.com/Crowded_Mkt_Rpt

Jason Shapiro website https://www.crowdedmarketreport.com/

Jason Shapiro YouTube channel https://www.youtube.com/@crowdedmarketreport

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:41) Jason Is "Neutral" On Stocks

(03:14) If Stocks Don't Rally On A Lower-Than-Expected PCE Number, There's Trouble

(06:30) Copper Has Become "The Favorite Trade On The Planet"

(13:00) Central Banks Have Painted Themselves Into A Corner

(20:50) "I Would Not Be Super Aggressive Here"

(22:37) VanEck Ad

(23:17) Jack's Push-Back Against "The Endgame" Take

(26:31) Trading Off A Macro View Is Dangerous As Hell

(27:37) Nvidia: The Mag One

(36:49) Bond Market Positioning

(41:10) U.S. Government Is Running A Pro-Cyclical Fiscal Deficit

(43:50) Jason Doesn't Trade On His Macro View Of Money-Printing Endgame, In The Same Way That A Profitable Sportsbetter From New York Doesn't Bet On The Knicks

(44:56) Barron's Roundtable Portfolio Is Up 2% This Year (Compared to 12% S&P 500)

(51:31) Jason's View Of Market Breadth

(56:49) Jason Is "Not A Big Believer In Chinese Stocks"

(01:06:15) Babyish Sentiment (People Freaking Out About Stock Market Being 5% Off Its Highs) Is Probably A Bullish Sign Argues Jason

(01:09:06) On A Short-Term Basis Jason Prefers Bonds To Stocks. What Would Have To Happen For That To Change?

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

1时16分29秒 2024-05-31
In This Economy? | Kyla Scanlon

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

Kyla Scanlon’s Book, “In This Economy?” https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/737854/in-this-economy-by-kyla-scanlon/

Follow Kyla Scanlon on Twitter https://x.com/kylascan

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Kyla Scanlon’s website https://kylascanlon.com/

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:19) In This Economy?

(07:44) How Are The Vibes Right Now

(11:43) Does The U.S. Have A Housing Crisis?

(14:21) VanEck Ad

(15:02) Does The U.S. Have A Housing Crisis? (continued)

(19:45) Declinism & Doomerism

(27:23) Wealth & Income Inequality In The U.S.

(32:46) Political Polarization

(34:16) The Origin Of Money

(36:10) MMT & Debt

(40:48) Elder Care & Child Care Costs

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


46分27秒 2024-05-30
Jack Ryan on The Housing Cartel That's Stifling The American Economy

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

Jack Ryan’s book: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Bringing-Adam-Smith-into-the-American-Home/Jack-Ryan/9798888451946

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:01) The Residential Agency Brokerage Business Is “The Largest Cartel In The U.S.” Argues Jack Ryan

(17:31) Is This Legal?

(22:54) Role of Multiple Listing Services (MLSs)

(28:02) Zillow’s Business Model

(34:54) VanEck Ad

(35:34) Rex’s Plans To Go Public Disintegrated After Material Slowdown In Business Upon Zillow Change

(39:09) Long And Short Ideas If Brokerage Fees Were To Go Down

(43:56) If Brokerage Is Such A Good Business, Where Are All The Excess Profits?

(48:10) How Zillow’s Business Decision May Have Impacted Rex Homes

(53:41) Rex’s Lawsuit Against Zillow, NAR, and Trulia

(01:05:25) National Association of Realtors (NAR) Has A Grip On Washington DC

(01:11:29) Closing Thoughts On Strength Of U.S. Housing Market

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


1时14分40秒 2024-05-28
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