In this episode, Raoul Pal and Julien Bittel explain their “Everything Code” framework showing how global debt cycles, demographics, and liquidity drive all asset prices. They argue fiat debasement is running at ~8% annually, meaning only tech stocks and crypto have outperformed over time, while gold just preserves purchasing power. They discuss the societal and economic implications of AI replacing human labor, the end of traditional recessions, why liquidity will keep increasing to roll debts, and how this cycle could mirror or exceed 2017’s asset booms. Enjoy!

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Follow Raoul: https://x.com/RaoulGMI

Follow Julien: https://x.com/BittelJulien

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF

https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london

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Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted.

https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:54) Big Macro Picture

(10:37) Liquidity & Real Returns

(14:32) Aptos Ad

(15:18) What is the Endgame?

(17:51) The Everything Code

(25:10) Financial Conditions

(31:39) 2017 on Steroids

(35:57) Aptos Ad

(36:54) Nothing Stops This Train

(38:34) Removing Recession Risk

(44:24) Immigration

(46:38) All Jobs Are Gone

(52:08) What Happens Next?

(54:50) Resurgence of Religion

(58:12) When Banana Zone?

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

This week, we dive into the latest jobs and unemployment data surprises, the hidden role of immigration in labor force changes, and why both political parties are terrible. We also dig into the looming deficit and treasury issuance implications, the EM-ification of the US, the symptoms of a failed system, and the inevitability of currency debasement. Enjoy!

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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WckOC1BLjh33MBzZsCrHM5TatPCd1EZF/view?usp=sharing

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Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Cold Open

(04:00) Bullish NFP?

(08:25) Ads (Aptos)

(11:12) Anti-Immigration Impact

(17:32) Wage Growth, Yields & Controlled Demolition

(21:22) BBB Passed, Now What?

(26:40) Ads (Aptos)

(27:32) Both Sides Are Terrible

(34:32) High-Yield Credit

(37:17) Get Out on the Risk Spectrum

(39:52) Active Treasury Issuance Greater Than QE

(41:37) The Problem is Getting Worse

(44:12) All Roads Lead to Debasement

(46:58) Crushing Global Labor

(48:52) DXY & the End of Central Banking

(51:47) EM-ification of the US

(54:12) MSTR & BTC Volatility

(58:44) Seasonality, Leverage & Momentum

(01:01:32) Symptoms of a Failed System

(01:08:50) Buying vs Renting

(01:13:28) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this live panel from Permissionless IV, we unpack the rapid rise of token acquisition vehicles like MicroStrategy and Defi Dev Corp. We explore why institutions are using these vehicles to accumulate crypto faster, analyze premium-to-NAV dynamics, discuss the evolution from equity issuance to innovative debt structures like converts and moving strike warrants, and debate sustainability risks if NAV premiums collapse. Enjoy!

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Follow Dan: https://x.com/CryptoIRGuy

Follow Tom: https://x.com/fundstrat

Follow David: https://x.com/David_Grid

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

__

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:05) The Rise of Crypto Treasury Companies

(07:45) What Catalyzed this Trend?

(08:27) Ledger Ad

(09:24) What Catalyzed this Trend?

(14:17) Unpacking the Capital Structure

(20:26) Risks to Crypto Treasury Companies

(22:06) Ledger Ad

(23:00) Risks to Crypto Treasury Companies

(30:53) Asset Unwind Risk

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Crypto #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this panel live from Permissionless IV, we discuss what TradFi can learn from crypto, from instant settlement and transparent markets to permissionless synthetic dollars and on-chain leveraged trading. We cover stablecoin demand dynamics, the future of tokenized structured products, how perps outperform options for retail, the practical limits of decentralization, and more. Enjoy!

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Follow Austin: https://x.com/CampbellJAustin

Follow Kaledora: https://x.com/kaledora

Follow Guy: https://x.com/gdog97_

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

__

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(03:23) What can TradFi Learn from Crypto?

(10:14) Is Decentralization Important?

(10:53) Ledger Ad

(11:43) Is Decentralization Important?

(17:23) Bringing TradFi Onchain

(22:35) Ledger Ad

(23:29) Bringing TradFi Onchain

(26:32) Stablecoins & The GENIUS Act

(30:57) Most Optimistic Innovations

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Crypto #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this special bonus episode, we dive into the takeaways from Permissionless IV, unpacking the biggest industry narratives and themes shaping crypto today. We discuss the future of stablecoins, give a candid macro outlook, and explore how Big Tech is positioning itself as the next crypto overlord. Finally, we reflect on some predictions we got wrong – and what we learned from them. Enjoy!

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Follow Jack: https://x.com/whosknave

Follow Boccaccio: https://x.com/salveboccaccio

Follow Danny: https://x.com/defi_kay_

Follow Rizzo: https://x.com/pete_rizzo_

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

—

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:57 Permissionless IV Takeaways

07:00 Biggest Industry Narratives

12:00 Future of Stablecoins

17:44 Macro Outlook

20:47 Big Tech Overlords

28:38 Predictions We Got Wrong

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Crypto #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this live Forward Guidance Roundup, we discuss geopolitics and the “peace dividend” theory from Pippa Malmgren, potential Fed regime shifts toward fiscal dominance, Trump’s pressure on FOMC board members, and the effects of tariffs and buybacks on equities. We also explore the implications of a weakening dollar, capital flows out of the U.S., and how AI and crypto could reshape wealth creation and ownership in the coming decade. Enjoy!

—

Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

—

Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/

—

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:10 Geopolitical Framework

05:00 Biggest Story in Markets

08:22 Flows vs Fundamentals

13:33 Moving Toward Fiscal Dominance

16:39 Housing, Labor, & the Wealth Gap

20:12 The Dollar Decline & RoW Assets

27:15 Investing in the RIght Themes

30:02 Potential Currency Accord

34:31 Tariffs, AI, & Labor

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this special episode recorded live at Permissionless IV, Maple Finance CEO Sid Powell unpacks the rise, fall, and rebuild of crypto lending. He discusses navigating the 2022 crypto credit collapse, the trade-offs between fixed and variable lending, why traditional institutions are finally entering DeFi, and how composability, transparency, and tokenized credit products are reshaping global finance. Sid also shares Maple’s shift toward overcollateralized lending, BTC-based yield products, and the future of structured on-chain credit. Enjoy!

__

Follow Sidney: https://x.com/syrupsid

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

__

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:52) Sid Powell's Journey into Crypto

(02:11) The Birth of Maple Finance

(02:51) Challenges and Evolution in Crypto Lending

(07:12) Ledger Ad

(07:12) Challenges and Evolution in Crypto Lending

(08:45) Navigating the 2022 Crypto Crisis

(14:33) Current State of Crypto Lending

(17:21) Biggest Crypto Innovations

(18:32) Ledger Ad

(19:32) Defi Integration and Secondary Markets

(21:01) Creating Counterparty Transparency

(22:52) Transparency and Financial Product Costs

(24:40) Fixed Rate vs Variable Rate Lending in Crypto

(28:21) Future of Crypto Lending and Institutional Interest

(31:16) Structured Products and Treasury Companies

(35:51) Navigating Crypto Market Cycles

(38:25) Final Thoughts

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this live Roundup episode from the Monetarium 2 conference in DC, we unpack the Fed's hawkish pivot, the growing risk of stagflation, and Powell’s apparent commitment to being “late” with rate cuts. We debate what an SLR exemption means for bond markets, how Treasury issuance and TGA refills could spike yields, and why 2026’s Fed chair pick could upend everything. We also explore global capital flows, the decline of US dollar dominance, and how to navigate a world where almost every asset feels dangerous to own. Enjoy!

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Follow Joseph: https://x.com/FedGuy12

Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp

Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

—

Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

—

Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(02:00) FOMC Decision

(09:06) Aptos Ad

(09:50) FOMC Decision

(13:09) Noisy Economic Data

(14:14) SLR Changes

(18:43) TGA Drain & Buildup

(24:50) Long Bond Yields

(25:28) Aptos Ad

(26:21) Long Bond Yields

(29:11) Powell Replacement

(34:38) Fiscal Dominance

(39:58) US Assets vs ROW

(46:12) Dollar Losing Reserve Status?

(51:17) Where to Put Your Money

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

In this episode of Forward Guidance, Vishal Gupta—former head of USDC at Circle and Coinbase Exchange—joins to discuss his journey from Goldman Sachs to building crypto-native market infrastructure with his new venture, True Markets. He shares how stablecoins are reshaping market plumbing, the growing relevance of perpetual futures vs. options, and what traditional finance can learn from crypto (and vice versa). Enjoy!

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Follow Vishal: https://x.com/vishalkgupta

Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc

Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_

Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance

—

Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv

__

Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.

—

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(01:07) Vishal’s History

(07:06) Most Interesting Crypto Innovations

(10:29) Ledger Ad

(11:21) Stablecoin Adoption & Fragmentation

(20:36) Evolution of Crypto Options & Exchanges

(27:15) Ledger Ad

(28:07) Bringing Exotic Assets Onchain

(30:37) Innovating Market Infrastructure

(37:14) Permissionless IV

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

In this special episode from the Empire podcast, Blockworks unveils its new Token Transparency framework—an initiative designed to close the information gap and bring much-needed clarity to the crypto space. Dan Smith, Head of Data at Blockworks, explains how this framework will reshape how token projects operate and why transparency is the key to crypto’s future. Enjoy!

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Follow Dan: https://x.com/smyyguy 

Fallow Yano: https://x.com/JasonYanowitz 

Follow Empire: https://x.com/theempirepod 

Follow Supply Shock: https://twitter.com/SupplyShockBW 

Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_  

Supply Shock Telegram: https://t.me/+SpmLg6P_QcgxNDcx 

Supply Shock Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/supplyshock 

Supply Shock Survey: https://bitcoinhistorynl.beehiiv.com/forms/979475d9-fb4b-4c13-99af-5037dd5718c6 

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Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code SUPPLY10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv 

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Ledn is the leading platform for Bitcoin-backed loans, offering a secure and transparent way to unlock liquidity without selling your Bitcoin. Ledn has issued over $9 billion in loans since 2018 and has never lost a single satoshi of client assets, earning a reputation as the name you can trust in the crypto space.

Visit https://www.ledn.io/ to learn more. 

Ledger, the global leader in digital asset security, proudly sponsors Supply Shock. As Bitcoin adoption grows, Ledger celebrates 10 years of securing over 20% of the world’s crypto. Buy a LEDGER device now for true self-custody and peace of mind in securing your Bitcoin. Devices are also available in Bitcoin orange. For every device ordered in BTC Orange, we’ll donate $5 to brink.dev. Buy now at https://Ledger.com.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Token Transparency

02:25 The Token Market & Lemons

11:40 Equity vs Token Risk

14:18 Structural Token Issues

17:12 How Did We Get Here?

22:57 Token Horror Stories

31:50 Token Launches

56:50 Best Case Scenario

01:02:38 Impact On Token Prices

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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Supply Shock is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

#Bitcoin #Crypto #SupplyShock