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This week, we dive into the latest jobs and unemployment data surprises, the hidden role of immigration in labor force changes, and why both political parties are terrible. We also dig into the looming deficit and treasury issuance implications, the EM-ification of the US, the symptoms of a failed system, and the inevitability of currency debasement. Enjoy!
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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
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Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WckOC1BLjh33MBzZsCrHM5TatPCd1EZF/view?usp=sharing
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Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Cold Open
(04:00) Bullish NFP?
(08:25) Ads (Aptos)
(11:12) Anti-Immigration Impact
(17:32) Wage Growth, Yields & Controlled Demolition
(21:22) BBB Passed, Now What?
(26:40) Ads (Aptos)
(27:32) Both Sides Are Terrible
(34:32) High-Yield Credit
(37:17) Get Out on the Risk Spectrum
(39:52) Active Treasury Issuance Greater Than QE
(41:37) The Problem is Getting Worse
(44:12) All Roads Lead to Debasement
(46:58) Crushing Global Labor
(48:52) DXY & the End of Central Banking
(51:47) EM-ification of the US
(54:12) MSTR & BTC Volatility
(58:44) Seasonality, Leverage & Momentum
(01:01:32) Symptoms of a Failed System
(01:08:50) Buying vs Renting
(01:13:28) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
In this episode, Raoul Pal and Julien Bittel explain their “Everything Code” framework showing how global debt cycles, demographics, and liquidity drive all asset prices. They argue fiat debasement is running at ~8% annually, meaning only tech stocks and crypto have outperformed over time, while gold just preserves purchasing power. They discuss the societal and economic implications of AI replacing human labor, the end of traditional recessions, why liquidity will keep increasing to roll debts, and how this cycle could mirror or exceed 2017’s asset booms. Enjoy!
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Follow Raoul: https://x.com/RaoulGMI
Follow Julien: https://x.com/BittelJulien
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london
__
Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted.
https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:54) Big Macro Picture
(10:37) Liquidity & Real Returns
(14:32) Aptos Ad
(15:18) What is the Endgame?
(17:51) The Everything Code
(25:10) Financial Conditions
(31:39) 2017 on Steroids
(35:57) Aptos Ad
(36:54) Nothing Stops This Train
(38:34) Removing Recession Risk
(44:24) Immigration
(46:38) All Jobs Are Gone
(52:08) What Happens Next?
(54:50) Resurgence of Religion
(58:12) When Banana Zone?
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
