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Alfonso Peccatiello: The Fed Put Is Back, Bull Steepener Base Case
1时02分07秒
05-09
Episode Summary
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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:24) Debt Service Ratio In U.S. Means Higher Interest Rates Haven't Caused Interest Expense To Skyrocket

(02:37) The "Higher Interest Rates Are Stimulative" Argument Has Gone War Too Far

(06:45) Outside Of The U.S., Higher Interest Rates Already HAVE Had A Big Effect

(08:46) Private Debt, Not Public Debt, Is The Cause Of Most Modern Financial Crises

(11:23) Eurozone Countries Can't Print Their Own Currency The Way A Monetary Sovereign Can

(14:04) Is Government Deficit The Surplus Of The Private Sector?

(21:43) VanEck ad

(22:50) Making Money And Being Right Are Often Different Things

(25:13) Is Private Sector Investment "Crowded Out" By Government Borrowing?

(26:51) The Four Factors That Impact Interest Rate Sensitivity Of An Economy

(29:53) U.S. Recession Risk Is Underpriced By Interest Rate Futures Market

(32:28) If Nominal GDP Comes In Below Consensus, Stocks Could Rally (Rather Than Sell-off)

(37:16) Macro Carry Strategies

(42:52) The Case For A Bull Steepener (Short-Term Yields Fall More Than Long-Term Yields)

(44:45) Weighing Probabilities Of Soft Landing vs. Recession vs. No Landing

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.



Next Episode
Why The Dollar Will Be The “Last Man Standing” Of Fiat Currencies | Keith Dicker

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.

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Timestamps

(00:00) Introduction

(01:07) An Overview Of Currencies

(09:19) The U.S. Dollar As A Hedge

(20:14) The Bond Market Is Not Safe

(25:41) Economic Outlook

(29:27) VanEck Ad

(30:28)

(34:02) Central Banks Management Of Currencies

(36:23) Emerging Market Currencies

(42:12) U.S. Trade Deficit And Fiscal Deficit

(45:08) Looking Back At Dollar Bear Market of 2000-2007

(49:05) China Is Screwed: Dicker on Chinese Yuan (CNY)

(01:00:27) View On Stock Market

(01:02:42) Which Are You More Bearish On, The Euro Or The Yen?

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

1时10分51秒 2024-05-14
Host
Single Episode:40
05-09