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Nick Givanovic: Treasury Bonds Are “Historically Unattractive” To Leveraged Investors
1时19分26秒
05-16
Episode Summary
Voice Summary:
0:00:00

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:30) Nick Favors Stocks Over Bonds Until He Sees Data That Say Otherwise

(05:25) Potential For An Bond Auction Failure

(06:44) U.S Government Borrowing: Treasury Bills vs. Treasury Coupons

(21:49) Conditions At Recent Treasury Market Auctions

(25:13) Short Bonds, But Not Wildly Bearish

(26:13) VanEck Ad

(27:14) Is Yield Curve Steepener Trade Positive Carry or Negative Carry?

(28:43) Inflation Volatility Is Bad For Term Premia

(33:13) Bull Steepener vs. Bear Steepener: How Will The Yield Curve Uninvert?

(39:10) Bull Steepeners Usually Occur Faster Than Bear Steepeners (Nick Thinks Bull Steepener Could Be More Likely)

(54:24) Volatility In The Bond Market

(01:02:21) Relative to Bonds, Nick Is Bullish On Stocks

(01:07:49) The Labor Market

(01:09:53) GameStop and the Return of Meme Stocks

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Next Episode
Mel Mattison: Asset Bubble Crescendo Until 2027 Collapse When U.S. Treasury Market Implodes

Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.

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Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:37) Mel’s Background

(04:13) The More Debt Is Created, The More Investors Want It (Story of Past 50 Years)

(06:59) Mel On Gold And Stock Market

(11:31) Inflating The Debt Away: The 1940s Playbook

(14:30) The Pre-Bretton Woods “Sterling Standard”

(17:36) Offshore Dollars (“Eurodollars”)

(24:23) The Debt Spiral: Comparison to 1920s

(27:56) VanEck Ad

(28:38) Why Now?

(37:01) Great Depression

(43:24) Social Security = Ticking Time Bomb, Mel Argues

(48:30) Isn’t There A Self-Regulating Cycle Where Rising Bond Yields Slow Down The Economy (Which In Turn Creates Demand For Duration & Cash)?

(59:14) Timing: 2027

(01:04:52) Social Security Funding

(01:17:01) Gold and Inflation

(01:28:22) Mel’s Book, QUOZ

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.


1时35分07秒 2024-05-20
Host
Single Episode:40
05-16