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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Follow Citrini on Twitter https://x.com/Citrini7
Follow Citrini on Substack https://www.citriniresearch.com/
Citrini 1-Year Anniversary Piece: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/citrindex-one-year-anniversary
Citrini, “Election 2024: Investment Implications & Preparations”: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/election-2024-investment-implications
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:20) How Citrini Is Thinking About Markets Right Now
(07:21) Just How Narrow Is The AI Bull Market?
(20:04) VanEck Ad
(20:44) Election 2024: Investment Implications & Preparations
(26:18) Fannie Mae and Glass Producers
(28:34) Onshoring vs. Nearshoring Stocks
(29:48) Trump Election Would Cause Epic 2s10s Steepeners
(33:41) Deficits Under Biden, Deficits Under Trump
(37:07) Trump's Aggressive Tax Policy (TCJA Tax Cuts To Expire In 2025)
(40:13) China
(46:32) Trump on Crypto
(48:15) Would The S&P 500 Perform Better Under Biden or Trump, and Why?
(54:12) Tarriff Basket
(56:05) Tarriffs on Chinese Electric Vehicles (EVs)
(58:31) Citrini on Tesla as an AI Company And As A Robotaxi Company
(01:01:40) The Hottest New Coding Language Is English
(01:06:21) Why Software and Saas Stocks Have Underperformed
(01:09:32) Margin Of Safety Has Been Extraordinarily Diminished
(01:12:43) What Are The Odds That The Top Is In For AI Stocks?
(01:19:03) China's AI Stocks
(01:34:54) Hedging For A Recession Is Pretty Straightforward Right Now
(01:37:18) Hedging Via The VIX
(01:42:34) Citrini: "I Think I'm Underweight Nvidia Relative to the S&P 500"
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG.
Midas’ website: https://midas.app/
Follow Midas on Twitter https://x.com/midasrwa
Fabrice Grinda’s website: https://fabricegrinda.com/
Fabrice Grinda on Twitter https://x.com/fabricegrinda
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96
Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:54) How Fabrice Grinda Thinks About Macro
(05:19) Fabrice's Early Journey In VC During The Venture Capital Bust of 2000
(07:06) The VC Boom of 2020 & 2021
(11:24) Why Raising Too Much Money At Too High A Valuation Can Be A Big Problem (For Real)
(16:38) Layoffs In Tech While The Overall U.S. Job Market Has Been Strong In 2023 & 2024: How To Square This?
(19:18) The Biggest Risk Now Is Not Macroeconomic In Nature: It Is Geopolitical
(21:19) VanEck Ad
(21:59) Palantir and Anduril
(26:48) Why An Increasing Percentage of Grinda's Investments Are Now In The U.S.
(30:42) VC Tourists Who Got Smoked In 2022
(33:15) Have VC Valuations Bottomed? A Tale of Two Cities (AI & Non-AI)
(36:02) Fabrice's Journey Into Crypto
(39:29) Midas: Yield-Bearing Stablecoin That Can Actually Do Stuff On-Chain
(44:13) The Crypto Basis Trade & mBasis
(47:50) Tether and Circle
(49:41) Midas' Decision To Be Regulatory Compliant In Europe (And Not The U.S.)
(51:44) The U.S. Regulatory Crackdown on Crypto Has Been Hardcore
(53:17) Bankruptcy Remoteness In Crypto Is Rare
(57:27) Are Onchain Treasury Bills Still Zero Coupon?
(58:32) Fabrice's Longer-Term Vision For Midas
(59:49) Fabrice's Views On Payment Rails Such as MasterCard, Visa, etc.
(01:04:27) FedNow
(01:07:29) How Did The Fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Impact The Venture Capital (VC) Ecosystem?
(01:14:35) Additional Thoughts On Macro and Recession Risk
(01:17:45) State of AI VC Market In 2024
(01:24:50) Self-Driving Tech
(01:27:12) Who Will Be The Biggest Long-Term Winners From AI?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
