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In this episode, Brent Donnelly joins the show to discuss his tariff expectations, how that will impact the currency market, and the framework he uses for trading FX. We also delve into carry trades, China and the yuan, and much more. Enjoy!
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Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2025 March 18th - 20th. Use code FG10 for 10% off general admission!
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-new-york
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SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:13) Make FX Great Again
(01:51) Tariff Expectations
(07:52) Inflation, Yields, & The Dollar
(13:30) Ads (Skale, Ledger)
(14:39) The Fed Reaction Function
(17:27) Equity Valuations
(19:23) FX Framework
(28:02) Ads (Skale, Ledger)
(29:19) Carry Trades
(34:32) BOJ & Market Surprises
(42:17) Canada & CAD/USD
(47:21) China & Yuan
(53:40) Long-Term Dollar View
(56:55) Learn More About Brent’s Work
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
This week we discuss the impact of Trump and his executive orders, the outlook for inflation, and the yield curve steepening. We also delve into warning signals for equities, CEO mentions of economic slowdown, and much more. Enjoy!
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Follow Capital Flows: https://x.com/Globalflows
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.co/G7Ljv4x5Dp
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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1EK4VxLf1UrpTCmKGgBVE0PeIxr3ek4f-/view?usp=sharing
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Forward Guidance Audience Survey: https://forward-guidance.beehiiv.com/forms/109bcbf7-0948-43b8-be8d-5390a5198125
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SKALE is the next evolution in Layer 1 blockchains with a gas-free invisible user experience, instant finality, high speed, and robust security. SKALE is built different as it allows for limitless scalability and has already saved its 46 Million users over $9 Billion in gas fees. SKALE is high-performance and cost-effective, making it ideal for compute-intensive applications like AI, gaming, and consumer-facing dApps. Learn more at skale.space and stay up to date with the gas-free invisible blockchain on X at @skalenetwork
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on Ledger.com.
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:37) Introduction and Guest Introduction
(01:20) Market Overview and Trump's Influence
(02:16) Fed's Interest Rate Strategy
(04:38) Executive Orders and Market Reactions
(14:55) Ads (Skale, Ledger)
(16:01) Roundup Continues
(18:53) Inflation and Economic Indicators
(24:09) Challenging Market Assumptions
(24:34) Trump's Influence on Market Sentiment
(25:13) Inflation and Energy Prices
(27:09) Ads (Skale, Ledger)
(28:26) FOMC Voting Members Rotation
(29:18) Analyzing the Yield Curve
(33:04) Market Reactions and Predictions
(39:11) Economic Slowdown and Recession Risks
(48:04) Final Thoughts and Market Outlook
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
