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In this episode, Arthur Hayes joins the show to discuss Trump’s slew of concessions sending markets higher, the evolving US-China strategy, and Bitcoin decoupling from US assets as tariffs reduce the US capital account surplus. We also delve into Treasury buybacks, the Fed & SLR exemption, potential catalysts that would trigger QE, and more. Enjoy!
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Follow Arthur: https://x.com/CryptoHayes
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
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Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
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At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.
Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:47) Trump Agenda & Concessions
(07:06) Tariffs & US-China Strategy
(13:39) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)
(14:50) Bitcoin Decoupling & Changing Trade Flows
(19:33) Fiscal Levers & Global Liquidity
(25:26) Treasury Buybacks
(30:49) Ads (Ondo, Ledger)
(32:04) Powell & The Fed
(34:43) SLR & Big Banks
(37:30) What Would Trigger QE?
(41:55) Structural Bid In Gold
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
This week, Danny Dayan joins the show to discuss his “Doom Loop” of factors weakening the dollar and increasing inflation, why inflation expectations are unanchored, and the importance of remaining nimble in fast-moving markets. We also delve into how we’re seeing equities, rate cuts, and bonds through 2025, whether the Fed can rescue growth, why the inflation problem is worse than the growth problem and more. Enjoy!
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Follow Danny: https://x.com/DannyDayan5
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
—
At Ondo, we design institutional-grade platforms, assets, and infrastructure to bring financial markets onchain. We believe that combining the best of TradFi with the best of DeFi will dramatically improve our financial system—making it fairer, faster, and more accessible to all.
Learn more about how Ondo is bringing capital markets onchain at https://ondo.finance/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:40) Beware the Doom Loop
(13:21) Ondo Ad
(13:48) Dollar Weakness or Normalization?
(16:15) Dollar & Bonds
(23:13) Hard Data & The Doom Loop
(25:06) Real Rates & Inflation
(31:48) Ondo Ad
(32:17) Inflation Expectations Are Unanchored
(38:13) Trading The Current Regime
(47:24) Gold Market
(49:18) Having Perspective In Fast-Moving Markets
(55:06) Can the Fed Rescue Growth?
(59:32) Inflation is the Bigger Problem
(09:30) What Will the Fed Do?
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
