Forum
OPRR
Finance
Specials
On-chain Eco
Entry
Podcasts
Activities
This week, the trio is back! We discuss the Trump-China tariff deal, Tyler’s structural framework driven by political utility markets, the tax bill, and widening fiscal deficits. We also dig into the repatriation of foreign capital, the yield curve's breaking point, and how AI-driven productivity might justify tech valuations. Enjoy!
—
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx—
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/17yIKpOcGu-wv67vfeKu5I7Lo17hftwgk/view?usp=sharing—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv—
Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.
Learn more: www.blockdaemon.comArkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.
Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks
Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:05) Tyler’s Back!
(03:53) China Deal & Tyler’s Framework
(09:56) Inflation & Labor
(11:20) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham)
(12:17) US Trade & Debt Reality
(19:58) Generational Repatriation
(22:23) MicroStrategy Monetizing Volatility
(24:02) Inflation & Capital Controls
(27:05) Tax Bill & Deficit Expansion
(28:56) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham)
(30:27) Dollar & Bond Market Breaking
(35:32) Stock Flows, Volatility & Sentiment
(38:08) US Equities & AI
(43:14) Asian Currencies
(45:21) New System in Motion
(47:07) Short Bond Trade
(49:34) Final Thoughts
—
Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
In this episode, author of the MacroTourist newsletter Kevin Muir joins the show to unpack why fiscal dominance is the defining force in today’s markets. He explains how MMT helped him rethink macro, why higher interest rates have recently been stimulative, and how the U.S. deficit is fueling both market resilience and long-term risk. We also dive into Trump's economic policies, potential capital controls, foreign capital repatriation, the implications for bonds and equities, and why Muir is positioning for FX volatility and a major private credit unwind. Enjoy!
__
Follow Kevin: https://x.com/kevinmuir
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
—
Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
__
Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.
Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com
Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.
Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks
Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:56) Two Macro Buckets
(07:50) Higher Rates Stimulative?
(14:03) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger)
(15:52) Credit Ratings & Deficits
(18:46) Challenges of Cutting Deficits
(28:09) Capital Controls Next?
(33:02) Time to Own Volatility
(38:43) FX Volatility
(39:35) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger)
(41:57) Global Inflection Point
(49:12) US Bond Market
(55:11) Firing Powell & the Dollar
(57:28) Equities & Risk Premium
(01:01:26) US Outlook: Bullish ROW?
(01:06:41) Corporate Credit
(01:10:22) Final Thoughts
__
Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
