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This week, we discuss the federal court injunction against Trump’s tariffs and whether this marks a true policy shift or just legal theater. The crew also dives into stealth bailouts via Treasury bill issuance, Japan’s inflation puzzle, AI’s productivity promises, and the looming housing and credit crunch. Plus, stablecoins are emerging as major buyers of U.S. debt. Enjoy!
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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1y-opkz9g_zdZo2XzMWZ4KnE7PzzmvTSe/view?usp=sharing
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Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
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Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.
Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com
Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.
Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks
Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.
Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$200M in aBTC minted.
Check out https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ to learn more!
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(03:10) Permissionless
(04:25) Court Blocks Trump Tariffs
(10:04) Has Anything Really Changed?
(11:16) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Aptos)
(12:59) Has Anything Really Changed?
(15:44) Economy Mostly Fine
(17:32) It’s All About Flows
(20:46) BOJ & The Acronym Factory
(25:36) AI Disruption
(30:09) Japan Financial Repression
(32:08) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Aptos)
(34:33) Delinquencies & Real Wages
(36:07) Endowments, VC, & Private Markets
(42:46) Housing Teetering
(47:16) Trump & Powell Meet
(48:38) Winning Innovation Themes
(50:54) BIS Stablecoin Paper
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
In this episode, Jim Bianco Jim Bianco returns to break down why the post-COVID economy has completely broken old models, how soft data continues to mislead markets, and why 5% yields are now the new normal. He explains why everyone got April wrong, what the return of bond vigilantes means for fiscal policy, and how the Fed is out of step with reality. They also dive into Trump’s tariff strategy, the collapse of DOGE, the global shift toward bill issuance, and more. Enjoy!
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Follow Jim: https://x.com/biancoresearch
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
Subscribe to Milk Road: https://bit.ly/43EDdiW
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Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv
__
Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions.
Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com
Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information.
Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks
Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding.
Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world’s crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com.
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(00:00) Introduction
(01:26) People Just Don’t Get it
(04:44) The Narrative Market
(12:36) Ads (Blockdaemon, Ledger, Arkham, Milk Road)
(14:54) Trump Goals vs Reality
(21:01) Tariffs or Capital Controls?
(27:10) What is the Role of Monetary Policy?
(32:43) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger)
(35:05) Rate Cuts vs Hikes
(42:22) Who’s Buying Bonds?
(50:46) The Short Duration Shift
(54:59) Gold & Bitcoin
(57:44) US vs RoW Assets
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
