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This week, we break down the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium and whether we can expect a dovish or hawkish tilt from Powell’s legacy speech. We also dig into the Fed’s five-year policy review, Trump’s Fed takeover strategy, foreign retreat from Treasury auctions, and whether the risks of inflation are greater than the risk of recession. Enjoy!
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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for 100 OFF
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london
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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zjfyhnCSgVzJ5u4f7LAHct6KKLq_6gxk/view?usp=sharing
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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):
http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix
Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):
vaneck.com/SMHXFelix
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(03:50) Jackson Hole Preview
(09:43) VanEck Ad
(10:27) Fed Minutes
(13:05) Will Powell Be A Dove or Hawk?
(19:02) Bullish Post Jackson Hole?
(20:10) JH Impact on Bond Yields
(25:09) Trump’s Fed Takeover Strategy
(29:36) Centralization & the Frontiers
(32:42) VanEck Ad
(33:24) Treasury Auctions in Danger Zone?
(38:19) Hike to Save the Long End!
(40:05) Boom Time in Japan?
(43:45) Inflation Risk > Recession Risk
(47:00) The New Financial Reality
(51:32) Short Financials?
(52:30) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
In this episode, founder of The Macro Compass Alfonso Peccatiello breaks down the clash between Trump’s political influence on the Fed, the reality of U.S. fiscal policy, and how to think about global markets at this moment in time. We also dig into forward rate pricing, the TGA rebuild, and the role of commodities and crypto in a world of loose monetary and fiscal policy. Enjoy!
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Follow Alf: https://x.com/MacroAlf
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
__
Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for 100 OFF
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london
__
This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):
http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix
Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):
vaneck.com/SMHXFelix
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:42) What’s Happening with Monetary Policy?
(07:46) What Fed Risk is the Market Pricing?
(10:55) Bond Market & Fiscal Tightening
(13:54) Understanding Changing Fiscal Impulse
(14:51) VanEck Ad
(15:34) Understanding Changing Fiscal Impulse
(19:46) QE vs Fiscal Deficits
(24:41) Impact of TGA Rebuild
(29:27) Signal for Average Macro Traders
(30:04) VanEck Ad
(35:05) Investing in High Inflation & Growth
(36:59) European Markets
(40:31) US Dollar & Emerging Markets
(43:54) Commodities Outlook
(47:03) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
