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In this episode, Ben Kizemchuk joins the show to discuss his “Four Fs” macro framework – Fiscal Dominance, Financial Repression, Fiat Currency, & Passive Flows – arguing that we’re in a unique historical moment where all four are converging at once. He explains how fiscal spending reshapes growth, why financial repression and passive flows stabilize markets, and how fiat currency enables this entire regime. Ben also shares how these dynamics blur the line between the stock market and the economy, setting the stage for an AI-driven future. Enjoy!
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Follow Ben: https://x.com/BenKizemchuk
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Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for 100 OFF
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london
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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):
http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix
Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):
vaneck.com/SMHXFelix
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:42 Ben’s Journey Through Markets
03:05 Ben’s 4 Fs Framework
06:10 F1 - Fiscal Dominance
11:00 Catalysts for Fiscal Dominance
14:15 How Sustainable is Government Debt?
17:36 F2 - Financial Repression
23:28 Rates in a Fiat vs Gold-Backed System
27:20 F3 - Fiat Currency
33:00 Are Governments Constrained by Supply & Demand?
34:55 Role of Monetary Policy Going Forward
39:56 F4 - Passive Flows
44:02 Constraints on Passive Flows
48:25 4 Fs Implications
51:53 Rethinking Asset Allocation
54:35 Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
This week, we discuss all the growing list of weaker labor market data after August NFP showed just 22K jobs added. We also debate whether the Fed will have room to cut 50bps in September while stagflation rears its head, the potential implications if tariffs are overturned, and whether it’s time to be concerned about liquidity and Fed plumbing. Ultimately, everything leads us to one asset. Enjoy!
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Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
—
Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for 100 OFF
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london
__
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1LyoebYlP0p27AqN4mQKVMH6PuYFi9T73/view?usp=sharing
—
This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):
http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix
Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):
vaneck.com/SMHXFelix
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:07) Tyler Back to School
(02:48) DAS London
(04:24) Big Labor Market Week
(09:29) NFP Downside Surprise
(11:11) VanEck Ad
(11:57) NFP Downside Surprise
(14:04) September Cut Odds
(17:28) Bulled Up on Gold
(22:59) VanEck Ad
(24:21) Will Tariffs Get Overruled?
(28:35) Fed Plumbing Concerns
(36:39) Read on the Dollar
(39:25) Macro Recap
(41:34) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
