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This week, we dig into the government shutdown, weakening labor markets, AI’s role in productivity, Michael Howell’s demographic analysis, and how fiscal and market structure dynamics set the stage for a potential risk-asset melt-up. Enjoy!
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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD200 for 200 OFF
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london
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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qHbnslxFOFZXswRiw0yv1JCyplgm8haE/view?usp=sharing
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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):
http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix
Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):
vaneck.com/SMHXFelix
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(03:09) DAS London!
(04:06) Government Shutdown
(06:42) Labor Weakness Continues
(13:45) VanEck Ad
(14:31) Demographic Decay of Advanced Economies
(17:18) Are You Ready for Negative Real Yields?
(19:20) The Macro Stars Are Aligning
(24:40) Is it a Bubble or Not?
(29:53) VanEck Ad
(30:33) Is it a Bubble or Not?
(31:40) Gaming Out Trump Admin Policy
(38:06) Is there a Bear Case?
(41:27) Strong USD, Strong Economy
(43:52) Does the Bull Market Have Legs?
(51:14) Best Bear Case
(53:16) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
In this episode, George Robertson returns to break down why he’s turned bearish. He explains why he thinks massive fiscal tightening from tariffs and job cuts, corporate profits rolling over, and the flow-of-funds are signaling recession even as markets sit at all-time highs. He walks through employment indicators, withholding data, and the widening gap between S&P levels and actual earnings, arguing the downturn has already begun. Enjoy!
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Follow George: https://x.com/BickerinBrattle
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
__
Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD200 for 200 OFF
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london
__
This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):
http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix
Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):
vaneck.com/SMHXFelix
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:39) George’s Market Outlook
(05:38) Where the Money’s Moving?
(06:57) Trump’s Economic Ripple Effects
(08:56) How the Fed Shapes the Cycle
(15:12) VanEck Ad
(15:56) COVID Spending & Fiscal Fallout
(23:20) Are We in a Recession?
(32:09) VanEck Ad
(32:50) Jobs Data & FICA Withholding
(38:29) Taxes, Tariffs & Shorting the Market
(44:15) Supreme Court and Constitutional Risk
(48:59) When Does the Music Stop?
(54:50) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
