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In this episode, Lyn Alden joins the show to explain how tariffs “slow the train but don’t stop it,” why the Fed’s rate hikes are disconnected from the true inflation source, and how Fed balance sheet expansion is returning. We also discuss the labor cracks, the hidden redistribution of interest income to wealthy savers, and the next phase of the debasement trade. Enjoy!
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Follow Lyn: https://x.com/LynAldenContact
Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
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Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.
https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:35) Tariffs & the Fiscal Outlook
(09:13) The Flow of Interest Payments
(12:49) Grayscale Ad
(13:27) Government Shutdown Impact
(15:36) Fiscally-Dominant Economies
(19:51) Measuring Economic Weakness
(22:49) The State of the Labor Market
(26:09) Grayscale Ad
(26:56) Should the Fed Cut?
(30:56) How We Fight Inflation
(34:18) The Fed Balance Sheet
(41:20) Past vs Present Funding Constraints
(45:06) Fed Balance Sheet & Liquidity
(48:43) Active Treasury Issuance
(51:20) The Fed & Bank Liquidity
(53:03) The Debasement Trade
(57:54) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
This week, we discuss the Fed meeting, including the end of quantitative tightening and the impact of its balance sheet plans. We also dig into how market structure imbalances and political polarization are reshaping markets, the “financial Hunger Games” of meme-driven trading, rising CapEx from AI megacaps, and the centralization of wealth and power across institutions. Enjoy!
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Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_
Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp
Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc
Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance
Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_
Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1E5w8fmngVNuC4lyl-PCV5qAPewW_lyKm/view?usp=sharing
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Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal.
https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:05) Private-Public Market Divergence
(05:08) Fed Meeting Takeaways
(11:17) Grayscale Ad
(11:56) Market Structure Rabbit Hole
(17:26) The Bifurcating Economy
(23:01) Fed Balance Sheet Changes
(27:40) Impact on Markets
(31:27) Grayscale Ad
(32:15) High-Yield Earnings & Market Concentration
(37:51) BigTech Capex Transition
(42:19) The Dystopian AI Future
(45:53) Why is Bitcoin Dumping?
(48:37) The Market is a Casino
(51:28) Realigning Market Incentives
(55:06) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
