Matrixport: Bitcoin Fundamental Support Strong, Fed's Dovish Tone Provides Mild Upside Support

BlockBeats News, June 27th, Matrixport released its weekly report stating that Powell sent a hawkish signal during the FOMC meeting on June 18, 2025, but in less than a week, the overall tone of the Fed quickly turned dovish. Several directors successively expressed dovish views, and Powell himself appeared more moderate at the congressional hearing this week. This shift may have been influenced by political pressure, as shortly after the meeting, President Trump openly criticized the Fed's tightening stance, forcing the Fed to quickly revise its public communication.

Inflation has fallen to 2.38%, just a step away from the Fed's 2% target, and the rationale for maintaining the status quo is gradually weakening. Last Friday, Governor Waller hinted at a rate cut discussion at the July FOMC meeting, and on Monday Governor Bowman expressed a similar view. Chicago Fed President Gulspie further downplayed the inflationary impact of tariffs, reinforcing the market's expectation of a "dovish Fed." Although Powell and some economists had warned that tariffs might push inflation back above 3%, this has not materialized so far. The unemployment rate has also remained at 4.2% for nearly 12 months, contrary to earlier expectations of a softening labor market. Powell did not refute dovish comments and mentioned that as long as inflation remains moderate, the timing of rate cuts could be brought forward. Although the probability of a rate cut in July is still low, the Fed is likely to provide advance guidance on potential policy adjustments in September at the July 30th meeting. With many share buybacks suspended in July, the earnings season may become one of the key variables dominating market sentiment.

After the U.S. military's airstrikes in Iran earlier this week, Bitcoin briefly fell to the 21-week moving average ($98,532), a level that serves as both a critical technical support and a bullish-bearish dividing line. If the price fails to promptly return above the moving average, the market may face the risk of a summer correction. Maintaining the benchmark of "seasonal range-bound trading" and anticipating that the Fed's dovish tone will continue to provide modest upward support for Bitcoin, the risk-reward ratio for buying on dips may improve further if more explicit signals of rate cuts emerge in the future.