Arthur Hayes New Article: Bitcoin's Four-Year Bull Market Cycle May Have Failed, with USD and RMB Liquidity Becoming Key Variables

BlockBeats News, October 9th. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes released a new article titled "Long Live the King!". In the article, he mentioned that each Bitcoin bull market peak is related to the "price and supply" changes of the US Dollar and Chinese Yuan, and the current cycle is different from the regular four-year pattern seen in the past.

He reviewed three cycles from 2009 to 2021: when the USD/CNY credit growth slows down or contracts and interest rates rise, Bitcoin reaches its peak and then falls; when the US Dollar undergoes large-scale QE, helicopter money, or China sees strong credit expansion, the price of Bitcoin strengthens.

The article points out that the Federal Reserve's tendency to lower interest rates and expand the money supply aligns with China's signal of ending deflation and moderately increasing credit, potentially prolonging this current upward trend.