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Jason Hsu of Rayliant joins Forward Guidance to share his view on the particulars of the Chinese equity market. Hsu argues that the “brutal” bear market is close to over and makes the bull case for onshore Chinese stocks. Recorded on March 28, 2024.
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:30) The "Brutal" Bear Market In Chinese Equities
(12:49) In China, It's Not The Homebuyers Who Are Indebted... It's The Builders (aka Developers)
(19:31) Spillovers Of China's Real Estate Correction
(23:41) Impact of Real Estate Issues On China's Banking System
(26:39) Beijing's Biggest Fixation: How To Avoid Japanese Real Estate Bust Of 1990s
(33:58) Regulatory Scrutiny On Tech And Other Industries Has Been Reduced
(38:09) VanEck Ad
(38:52) 5-10 Years From Now, People Will Look At Now AS Bottom In Chinese Equities
(39:55) China's Ambition To Move Up The Value Chain
(43:04) Just How Cheap Are Chinese Stocks?
(43:59) Who Are The Investors In The Chinese Stock Market?
(46:08) Immense Pessimism Has Gripped Chinese Stock Investors
(47:16) What Causes Chinese Stocks To Go Up Or Down?
(49:06) China's Role In Emerging Market Equity Portfolios
(51:50) What Moves Emerging Market (EM) Stocks As A Category?
(55:53) Latin American, Middle East, and Africa
(57:23) The Role of Diversification and "Quantamental" Analysis
(01:04:45) State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) - What Do Investors Really Own?
(01:08:29) Biggest Overweights. (Mexico) and Underweights (India)
(01:11:00) Mechanics Of "The Beijing Put"
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.
Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.
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Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Forward Guidance for the first time to share his learnings from an extensive career as an investment banker moving Chinese IPOs to a corporate financier for an electric vehicle producer. The rodent shares his views on tires, refiners, and gold miners, and makes the case that cheaply produced Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) will unleash a “bloodbath” on the middle-market global EV market. Recorded on April 2, 2024.
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Blind Squirrel Macro on Twitter https://twitter.com/SquirrelMacro
Blind Squirrel Macro Substack https://t.co/mgOvPYwOAi
Latest piece on Gold: https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/april-fool-or-a-hamlet-moment
Piece on Refiners: https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/a-cracking-sunset?r=9ef2u&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Piece on Ben Graham’s Electric Car: https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/acorn-ben-grahams-electric-car
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:47) The Squirrel's Background As An Investment Banker
(03:14) The Chinese IPO Boom Of 2000s
(13:51) The Squirrel's Current View On Chinese Economy and Stock Market
(20:00) Is The Chinese Real Estate Crisis Just Getting Started?
(23:55) VanEck Ad
(24:57) The Squirrel's Experience In The Electric Vehicle (EV) Business
(29:49) China Will Unleash "Bloodbath" On Global EV Auto Market
(36:07) Toyota Is Having The Last Laugh
(40:52) For Auto Stocks, The Squirrel Prefers Price To Sales
(44:56) Many EV Companies That Went Public In 2020 & 2021 Were Bubbles And Frauds
(50:18) Tesla
(53:51) Old School Auto Manufacturers (Ford, GM, Volkswagen, etc.)
(54:40) Squirrel's Bull Thesis On Tire Producers
(01:02:55) The Offshore Oil Thesis
(01:12:50) Macro
(01:18:26) Squirrel's Inflationista Thesis
(01:22:12) Options
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
