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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.
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Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Forward Guidance for the first time to share his learnings from an extensive career as an investment banker moving Chinese IPOs to a corporate financier for an electric vehicle producer. The rodent shares his views on tires, refiners, and gold miners, and makes the case that cheaply produced Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) will unleash a “bloodbath” on the middle-market global EV market. Recorded on April 2, 2024.
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Latest piece on Gold: https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/april-fool-or-a-hamlet-moment
Piece on Refiners: https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/a-cracking-sunset?r=9ef2u&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Piece on Ben Graham’s Electric Car: https://www.blindsquirrelmacro.com/p/acorn-ben-grahams-electric-car
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:47) The Squirrel's Background As An Investment Banker
(03:14) The Chinese IPO Boom Of 2000s
(13:51) The Squirrel's Current View On Chinese Economy and Stock Market
(20:00) Is The Chinese Real Estate Crisis Just Getting Started?
(23:55) VanEck Ad
(24:57) The Squirrel's Experience In The Electric Vehicle (EV) Business
(29:49) China Will Unleash "Bloodbath" On Global EV Auto Market
(36:07) Toyota Is Having The Last Laugh
(40:52) For Auto Stocks, The Squirrel Prefers Price To Sales
(44:56) Many EV Companies That Went Public In 2020 & 2021 Were Bubbles And Frauds
(50:18) Tesla
(53:51) Old School Auto Manufacturers (Ford, GM, Volkswagen, etc.)
(54:40) Squirrel's Bull Thesis On Tire Producers
(01:02:55) The Offshore Oil Thesis
(01:12:50) Macro
(01:18:26) Squirrel's Inflationista Thesis
(01:22:12) Options
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck.
Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG.
VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus.
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Jonathan Treussard of Treussard Capital Management joins Forward Guidance to help define what a bubble is. By his strict definition, nothing qualifies right now. But as money flows into risk assets, valuations become stretched. Treussard has trouble with the high valuations in the U.S. market, and sees opportunities in the cheaper European and Japanese markets. He also shares his views on the risk of the “engineered yield” that comes from strategies that sell options explicitly or implicitly. Filmed on April 2, 2024.
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About Treussard Capital Management: https://www.treussard.com/
2004 Paper on Bubbles with Earl Thompson and Charles Hickson: http://www.econ.ucla.edu/workingpapers/wp836.pdf
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:45) Hallmarks Of A Financial Bubble: New Technology and Valuations Stretching Far Beyond Fundamentals
(05:24) How Bubbles Remake Social Orders
(07:25) Credit Bubbles Vs. Equity Bubbles
(10:00) The Rise of Private Credit
(11:44) In Wealth Management, Private Credit Tends To Be "More Sold Than Bought"
(15:25) Private Credit Is "Concerning" But "Not A Bubble"
(17:05) U.S. Stocks Are Expensive
(19:55) Trade Wars & Geopolitical Blockades Are A Serious Risk To Nvidia
(26:49) Europe and Japan
(29:08) VanEck Ad
(30:10) T-Bill And Chill Has Been Drastically Outperformed By Stock Market Beta
(31:03) Investment Framework For The New Cold War
(43:58) How Option Theory Applies To Economics, Investing, And Life
(49:35) Jonathan's Work As A Risk Manager During 2008
(55:53) Beware "Engineered Yield"
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
