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In this episode, labor market economist Guy Berger breaks down how jobs data is collected, why revisions happen, and how to interpret them in context. He explains the roles of NFP, claims, and JOLTS data, the impact of immigration shifts on labor supply, and how business surveys can signal future hiring trends. Berger also digs into why the current conditions show stability with potential for both cooling and tightening ahead. Enjoy!
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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for 100 OFF
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london
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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):
http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix
Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):
vaneck.com/SMHXFelix
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Timestamps:
(0:00) Introduction
(3:01) How Does BLS Gather Data?
(6:27) Why Do We Have Revisions?
(15:33) VanEck Ad
(16:18) How to Think About the Data
(20:42) Immigration Impact
(29:10) VanEck Ad
(29:50) Weekly Claims Data
(40:08) JOLTS Data
(45:54) The Beveridge Curve
(53:49) Where is the Labor Market NOW?
(56:20) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
This week, Brent Johnson joins us to break down the latest CPI & PPI data, the potential for September rate cuts, and why he thinks we’re ripe for a 10–15% correction. We also unpack Trump’s political strategy toward Powell, Brent’s dollar milkshake theory, and AI’s long-term impact on productivity, inflation, and the next generation. Enjoy!
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Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
—
Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for 100 OFF
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london
__
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HpY5-OGzqa3t0tVz1a-2RnUXCI6BbZU5/view?usp=sharing
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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):
http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix
Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):
vaneck.com/SMHXFelix
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(04:28) Inflation Heating Up?
(07:45) Brent's Macro Outlook
(12:08) VanEck Ad
(12:53) Should the Fed Cut?
(16:01) Time for a Correction?
(28:58) VanEck Ad
(29:38) Dampening of Animal Spirits
(33:29) Going Full Ponzi?
(37:15) The Imperial Circle
(41:31) Is the Dollar Milkshake Still Intact?
(48:45) Gold & Gold Miners
(51:13) Bifurcated Economy
(55:29) AI Boom Bearing Fruit?
(58:41) What Does Trump Really Want?
(01:22:11) The Younger Generation Is Screwed
(01:04:12) Stablecoins & the US Empire
(01:07:06) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
